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The Kobeissi Letter
What just happened?
The Dow just went from being up +300 points at the open to falling as much as -1,100 points in hours.
Between 10:00 AM and 3:30 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased a whopping $1.5 trillion in market cap.
Here's exactly what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/nQpKOlrihB
tweet
What just happened?
The Dow just went from being up +300 points at the open to falling as much as -1,100 points in hours.
Between 10:00 AM and 3:30 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased a whopping $1.5 trillion in market cap.
Here's exactly what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/nQpKOlrihB
tweet
Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
Bad News for Stocks and Real Estate: Chamath Explains The Great Economic Reset
In the tweet below, @chamath points out that Trump has two core constituencies that are generally asset-light:
1) young people
2) working-class / middle-class
On E217, @chamath broke down his thoughts:
"I tend to be in the Stevie Cohen camp. It's not like the bottom is going to fall out, but there's a lot of room for concern."
-- In a recent interview, @StevenACohen2 said that a combination of tariffs, slowing immigration, and DOGE has him bearish in the short-term.
-- "I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while. It wouldn't surprise me to see a significant correction."
Chamath agreed:
"It is bad news for the stock market and it is bad news for asset owners."
" I think people want this austerity."
" So if you are going to feed your constituents and your constituents don't own stocks and your constituents don't own homes, or they are so wealthy that they can be inoculated from a massive drawdown in those asset categories, what do you think the winning strategy is?"
" If you want to cement political power, I think it requires a walking down of these asset markets in a meaningful way."
"That's stocks and that's real estate."
"And I just don't see any other way around it."
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Bad News for Stocks and Real Estate: Chamath Explains The Great Economic Reset
In the tweet below, @chamath points out that Trump has two core constituencies that are generally asset-light:
1) young people
2) working-class / middle-class
On E217, @chamath broke down his thoughts:
"I tend to be in the Stevie Cohen camp. It's not like the bottom is going to fall out, but there's a lot of room for concern."
-- In a recent interview, @StevenACohen2 said that a combination of tariffs, slowing immigration, and DOGE has him bearish in the short-term.
-- "I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while. It wouldn't surprise me to see a significant correction."
Chamath agreed:
"It is bad news for the stock market and it is bad news for asset owners."
" I think people want this austerity."
" So if you are going to feed your constituents and your constituents don't own stocks and your constituents don't own homes, or they are so wealthy that they can be inoculated from a massive drawdown in those asset categories, what do you think the winning strategy is?"
" If you want to cement political power, I think it requires a walking down of these asset markets in a meaningful way."
"That's stocks and that's real estate."
"And I just don't see any other way around it."
1. Trump is more popular with young people than old people. Most young people don’t own stocks or homes (aka they are asset-light).
2. Trump is also more popular amongst working and middle class folks. Most of these folks are also asset-light.
It stands to reason that a fall in asset prices (stocks down or home prices down) have very little impact on his core constituents. To that end, I won’t be surprised if Trump has little reaction, then, to an equity or home price market correction.
Separately, the upside of shrinking these asset prices is that it gives the folks mentioned above a legitimate chance to buy into those markets at lower levels, making equity ownership and/or home ownership more possible.
Tangentially, if Trump figures out how to get rents lower, he will unite young people and asset-light working people into a reliable voting block for the foreseeable future. He will have given them the trifecta: cheaper stocks, cheaper homes, lower rent.
Said differently, don’t presume that the stock market going up is a useful barometer anymore. In fact, it going down may be a better signal for his popularity.
Time will tell. tweet
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Davis Financial Fund on Capital One $COF US
Thesis: Capital One is a leading financial services company with a strong track record of growth and prudent credit management, currently holding significant excess capital that positions it for accelerated earnings growth.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Davis Financial Fund on Capital One $COF US
Thesis: Capital One is a leading financial services company with a strong track record of growth and prudent credit management, currently holding significant excess capital that positions it for accelerated earnings growth.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Quiver Quantitative
In May, we noticed a U.S. politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.
Rheinmetall stock has now risen 118% since we posted this report:
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In May, we noticed a U.S. politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.
Rheinmetall stock has now risen 118% since we posted this report:
BREAKING: Representative Susie Lee just bought stock in the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, $RNMBY.
She is the first U.S. politician we have seen buy Rheinmetall stock.
Lee sits on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction. https://t.co/hiNwf8AsRK tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$NVDA is getting close to its lowest valuation in the past 5 years 💵
Are you buying? https://t.co/XiL42lZX8y
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$NVDA is getting close to its lowest valuation in the past 5 years 💵
Are you buying? https://t.co/XiL42lZX8y
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: Sneak peek at our February 2025 report (150+ visuals) 👀 https://t.co/NWf4RHFRN6
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RT @EconomyApp: Sneak peek at our February 2025 report (150+ visuals) 👀 https://t.co/NWf4RHFRN6
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump has halted all military aid to Ukraine, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/2OBbWbYp0f
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BREAKING: President Trump has halted all military aid to Ukraine, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/2OBbWbYp0f
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The Kobeissi Letter
This is absolutely insane:
At 9:30 AM ET today, the S&P 500 opened ~30 points higher and crypto hit its highest level of the trading session.
By 2:30 PM ET, the S&P 500 had lost -$1.5 trillion of market cap and crypto was down -$300 billion
That's -$1.8 TRILLION of lost market cap in ~5 hours.
In other words, between 9:30 AM and 2:30 PM, the S&P 500 and crypto lost $360 billion PER HOUR.
That's more than the entire market cap of Bank of America, $BAC, lost EVERY HOUR, on average.
We are witnessing history.
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This is absolutely insane:
At 9:30 AM ET today, the S&P 500 opened ~30 points higher and crypto hit its highest level of the trading session.
By 2:30 PM ET, the S&P 500 had lost -$1.5 trillion of market cap and crypto was down -$300 billion
That's -$1.8 TRILLION of lost market cap in ~5 hours.
In other words, between 9:30 AM and 2:30 PM, the S&P 500 and crypto lost $360 billion PER HOUR.
That's more than the entire market cap of Bank of America, $BAC, lost EVERY HOUR, on average.
We are witnessing history.
What just happened?
The Dow just went from being up +300 points at the open to falling as much as -1,100 points in hours.
Between 10:00 AM and 3:30 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased a whopping $1.5 trillion in market cap.
Here's exactly what you need to know.
(a thread) https://t.co/nQpKOlrihB tweet
The Investing for Beginners Podcast
RT @IFB_podcast: 5 powerful ratios for value investors:
1. P/E Ratio
2. P/B Ratio
3. Debt to equity
4. Current ratio
5. Dividend yield
With these, we can screen for valuation, liquidity, debt, and dividend strength.
Examples:
$TXN
$TSM
$GOOG
$WSO
tweet
RT @IFB_podcast: 5 powerful ratios for value investors:
1. P/E Ratio
2. P/B Ratio
3. Debt to equity
4. Current ratio
5. Dividend yield
With these, we can screen for valuation, liquidity, debt, and dividend strength.
Examples:
$TXN
$TSM
$GOOG
$WSO
tweet