⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Less than 8 months ago I stated:

“Today at $254💵 $V appears to be ONE OF THE BEST RISK-REWARD opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment”

Since then, $V stock rallied +42% ✅ — Also, that was essentially the lowest price that $V traded for moving forward 🎯

As I stated in the post attached below 👇🏽

“As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality

I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”

$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price”
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I do not throw words around carelessly. When I called $V “one of the best risk-reward opportunities in today’s market,” I meant every bit of it.

Since then, $V has delivered ~5x the return of $SPY and has climbed in price with impressive consistency.

Yes, I can understand that the allure of growth stocks & making quick gains may entice you. Yet, you cannot tell me that there is something better than generating >40% return, in less than a year, while being an owner of the world’s highest-quality business.

Best of all, you can hold $V without losing sleep or constantly checking its price.

A sober valuation analysis on $V 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.73x
•10-Year Mean: 28.11x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.20%
•10-Year Mean: 4.08%

As you can see, $V appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $V is a super business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.64B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B

$V has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 31x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 27.5%
•2020: 21.4%
•2021: 24.2%
•2022: 30.7%
•2023: 33.7%
•LTM: 35.7%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.2%
•2020: 30.7%
•2021: 33.4%
•2022: 40.9%
•2023: 46.5%
•LTM: 48.5%

$V has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $11.78B
•2023: $32.65B
•CAGR: 10.73%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.55B
•2023: $19.70B
•CAGR: 22.68%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.90
•2023: $8.77
•CAGR: 16.52%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.35
•2023: $1.87
•CAGR: 18.24%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.03B

By reducing its shares outstanding 22.5%, $V increased its EPS by 29% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~3% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $V has to grow earnings at an 11.87% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.87%) required growth rate:

2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $11.09 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $12.57 (13.3% YoY)

$V has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $V ends 2026 with $12.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

28x P/E: $351.96💵 … ~16.4% CAGR

27x P/E: $339.39💵 … ~14.5% CAGR

26x P/E: $326.82💵 … ~12.6% CAGR

25x P/E: $314.25💵 … ~10.8% CAGR

As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by[...]

its growth rate AND quality

I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”

$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price

Today at $254💵 $V appears to be one of the best risk-reward opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet

⁠The Kobeissi Letter
What just happened?

The Dow just went from being up +300 points at the open to falling as much as -1,100 points in hours.

Between 10:00 AM and 3:30 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased a whopping $1.5 trillion in market cap.

Here's exactly what you need to know.

(a thread) https://t.co/nQpKOlrihB
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⁠The All-In Podcast
Bad News for Stocks and Real Estate: Chamath Explains The Great Economic Reset

In the tweet below, @chamath points out that Trump has two core constituencies that are generally asset-light:

1) young people

2) working-class / middle-class

On E217, @chamath broke down his thoughts:

"I tend to be in the Stevie Cohen camp. It's not like the bottom is going to fall out, but there's a lot of room for concern."

-- In a recent interview, @StevenACohen2 said that a combination of tariffs, slowing immigration, and DOGE has him bearish in the short-term.

-- "I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while. It wouldn't surprise me to see a significant correction."

Chamath agreed:

 "It is bad news for the stock market and it is bad news for asset owners."

" I think people want this austerity."

" So if you are going to feed your constituents and your constituents don't own stocks and your constituents don't own homes, or they are so wealthy that they can be inoculated from a massive drawdown in those asset categories, what do you think the winning strategy is?"

" If you want to cement political power, I think it requires a walking down of these asset markets in a meaningful way."

"That's stocks and that's real estate."

"And I just don't see any other way around it."

1. Trump is more popular with young people than old people. Most young people don’t own stocks or homes (aka they are asset-light).

2. Trump is also more popular amongst working and middle class folks. Most of these folks are also asset-light.

It stands to reason that a fall in asset prices (stocks down or home prices down) have very little impact on his core constituents. To that end, I won’t be surprised if Trump has little reaction, then, to an equity or home price market correction.

Separately, the upside of shrinking these asset prices is that it gives the folks mentioned above a legitimate chance to buy into those markets at lower levels, making equity ownership and/or home ownership more possible.

Tangentially, if Trump figures out how to get rents lower, he will unite young people and asset-light working people into a reliable voting block for the foreseeable future. He will have given them the trifecta: cheaper stocks, cheaper homes, lower rent.

Said differently, don’t presume that the stock market going up is a useful barometer anymore. In fact, it going down may be a better signal for his popularity.

Time will tell. - Chamath Palihapitiya
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Davis Financial Fund on Capital One $COF US

Thesis: Capital One is a leading financial services company with a strong track record of growth and prudent credit management, currently holding significant excess capital that positions it for accelerated earnings growth.

(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
In May, we noticed a U.S. politician buying stock in a German arms manufacturer.

Rheinmetall stock has now risen 118% since we posted this report:

BREAKING: Representative Susie Lee just bought stock in the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, $RNMBY.

She is the first U.S. politician we have seen buy Rheinmetall stock.

Lee sits on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction. https://t.co/hiNwf8AsRK - Quiver Quantitative
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$NVDA is getting close to its lowest valuation in the past 5 years 💵

Are you buying? https://t.co/XiL42lZX8y
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