Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
John Collison explains why it’s important for founders to be curious
John recounts a story about Magnus Carlson winning a chess trivia contest:
“He knew the most chess trivia out of anyone in this contest, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the world’s number one player has also studied the most about chess history.”
As the Collison brothers scaled Stripe from two people to 7,000 people, they studied how other businesses navigated similar stages:
“I think you have to be curious about what is required to run a good company at that stage… One thing we try to do is just spend a lot of time looking at all the other companies and what they’ve done. Not that you want to blindly emulate them, but you should at least understand them.”
He gives Apple and Amazon as an example:
“You cannot imagine two companies that work more differently than the two of those… Yet they’re both really successful models. And so I think it’s useful to have a framework for how that stuff works.”
John also recommends trying to learn the best mental models from various domains and industries:
“I don’t know if every founder has to do it, but I do think it’s probably effective to be able to just know the top mental models from finance, engineering, product, sales, and stuff like that. I don’t see how you could be that effective without being pretty curious on how to learn the most important mental models from this particular domain or function.”
Video source: @MillionStories (2024)
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John Collison explains why it’s important for founders to be curious
John recounts a story about Magnus Carlson winning a chess trivia contest:
“He knew the most chess trivia out of anyone in this contest, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the world’s number one player has also studied the most about chess history.”
As the Collison brothers scaled Stripe from two people to 7,000 people, they studied how other businesses navigated similar stages:
“I think you have to be curious about what is required to run a good company at that stage… One thing we try to do is just spend a lot of time looking at all the other companies and what they’ve done. Not that you want to blindly emulate them, but you should at least understand them.”
He gives Apple and Amazon as an example:
“You cannot imagine two companies that work more differently than the two of those… Yet they’re both really successful models. And so I think it’s useful to have a framework for how that stuff works.”
John also recommends trying to learn the best mental models from various domains and industries:
“I don’t know if every founder has to do it, but I do think it’s probably effective to be able to just know the top mental models from finance, engineering, product, sales, and stuff like that. I don’t see how you could be that effective without being pretty curious on how to learn the most important mental models from this particular domain or function.”
Video source: @MillionStories (2024)
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Offshore
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Finding Compounders
Why is calculating look-through earnings necessary ?
The second paragraph is important! https://t.co/Ji9lrRW8nq
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Why is calculating look-through earnings necessary ?
The second paragraph is important! https://t.co/Ji9lrRW8nq
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
2 months ago I stated:
“I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety”
Since reaching my $1,700 target $MELI shares have rallied +33%✅
As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽
“$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include 🔑
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
Those buying $MELI today at $1856💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety — however, these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return
I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety”
____
While a rapid appreciation in share price can be gratifying, it's often counterintuitive for long-term investors
Ideally, I prefer to see these high-quality businesses trade at attractive valuations for an extended period, allowing for the accumulation of shares at a more favorable price
This enables us to build a larger position in a company we believe in, ultimately increasing our potential for long-term returns
A quality valuation analysis on $MELI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 49.60x
•1-Year Mean: 48.36x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive roughly the same in earnings per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $6.67B
•Long-Term Debt: $3.04B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, an ok BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 20x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗➡️✅
•2019: (4.8%)
•2020: 3.7%
•2021: 8.1%
•2022: 14.2%
•2023: 25.3%
•LTM: 20.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗➡️✅
•2019: (14.2%)
•2020: (0.1%)
•2021: 5.2%
•2022: 28.7%
•2023: 40.3%
•LTM: 42.6%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $1.44B
•2023: $14.47B
•CAGR: 58.64%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $133.35M
•2023: $4.63B
•CAGR: 203.29%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: ($0.82)
•2023: $22.84
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 44.53M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 51.28M
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 52.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive roughly the same in EPS
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at a 24.80% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (24.80%) required growth rate:
2024E: $33.59 (47.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $45.76 (36.2% YoY)
2026E: $62.50 (36.6% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MELI ends 2026 with $62.50 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $2500💵 … ~15.5% CAGR
38x P/E: $2375💵 … ~12.7% CAGR
36x P/E: $2250💵 … ~9.7% CAGR
34x P/E: $2125💵 … ~6.7% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >38x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
$MELI boasts an expansive growth traj[...]
2 months ago I stated:
“I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety”
Since reaching my $1,700 target $MELI shares have rallied +33%✅
As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽
“$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include 🔑
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
Those buying $MELI today at $1856💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety — however, these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return
I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety”
____
While a rapid appreciation in share price can be gratifying, it's often counterintuitive for long-term investors
Ideally, I prefer to see these high-quality businesses trade at attractive valuations for an extended period, allowing for the accumulation of shares at a more favorable price
This enables us to build a larger position in a company we believe in, ultimately increasing our potential for long-term returns
A quality valuation analysis on $MELI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 49.60x
•1-Year Mean: 48.36x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive roughly the same in earnings per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $6.67B
•Long-Term Debt: $3.04B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, an ok BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 20x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗➡️✅
•2019: (4.8%)
•2020: 3.7%
•2021: 8.1%
•2022: 14.2%
•2023: 25.3%
•LTM: 20.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗➡️✅
•2019: (14.2%)
•2020: (0.1%)
•2021: 5.2%
•2022: 28.7%
•2023: 40.3%
•LTM: 42.6%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $1.44B
•2023: $14.47B
•CAGR: 58.64%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $133.35M
•2023: $4.63B
•CAGR: 203.29%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: ($0.82)
•2023: $22.84
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 44.53M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 51.28M
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 52.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive roughly the same in EPS
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at a 24.80% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (24.80%) required growth rate:
2024E: $33.59 (47.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $45.76 (36.2% YoY)
2026E: $62.50 (36.6% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MELI ends 2026 with $62.50 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $2500💵 … ~15.5% CAGR
38x P/E: $2375💵 … ~12.7% CAGR
36x P/E: $2250💵 … ~9.7% CAGR
34x P/E: $2125💵 … ~6.7% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >38x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
$MELI boasts an expansive growth traj[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® 2 months ago I stated: “I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety” Since reaching…
ectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include 🔑
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
Those buying $MELI today at $1856💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety — however, these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return
I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include 🔑
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
Those buying $MELI today at $1856💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety — however, these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return
I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,700💵 (~9% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~14% CAGR while assuming a 36x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge Small Cap Strategy on First Watch Restaurant $FWRG US
Thesis: First Watch Restaurant is an attractive growth opportunity in casual dining, focusing on breakfast and lunch to maintain low labor costs and high margins.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/kZ8aO6bBQS
tweet
Clearbridge Small Cap Strategy on First Watch Restaurant $FWRG US
Thesis: First Watch Restaurant is an attractive growth opportunity in casual dining, focusing on breakfast and lunch to maintain low labor costs and high margins.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/kZ8aO6bBQS
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
I'm no expert on $NU, but their customer growth over the past 5 years is impressive to say the least👌 https://t.co/SLTZbVRwc3
tweet
I'm no expert on $NU, but their customer growth over the past 5 years is impressive to say the least👌 https://t.co/SLTZbVRwc3
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: As an investor, it’s exciting to find companies where profits and stock prices rise together over time
Here are 10 high-quality compounders, businesses that keep growing steadily, still trading near their valuations from 5 years ago, plus their impressive returns 🧵
tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: As an investor, it’s exciting to find companies where profits and stock prices rise together over time
Here are 10 high-quality compounders, businesses that keep growing steadily, still trading near their valuations from 5 years ago, plus their impressive returns 🧵
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Startup Archive
Sam Altman on how to build a "product improvement engine" in your company:
"Talk to your users and watch them use your product, figure out what parts are sub-par, and then make your product better. Then do it again. This cycle should be the number one focus of the company, and it should drive everything else. If you improve your product 5% every week, it will really compound."
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Sam Altman on how to build a "product improvement engine" in your company:
"Talk to your users and watch them use your product, figure out what parts are sub-par, and then make your product better. Then do it again. This cycle should be the number one focus of the company, and it should drive everything else. If you improve your product 5% every week, it will really compound."
"A Great Product" by Sam Altman https://t.co/78wQgXZKi9 tweet
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Brown Advisory on AutoZone $AZO US
Thesis: AutoZone is the leading US automotive parts retailer, effectively serving the growing used car market and expanding into the DIFM sector, while maintaining strong customer loyalty through immediate parts availability and exceptional capital discipline.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Brown Advisory on AutoZone $AZO US
Thesis: AutoZone is the leading US automotive parts retailer, effectively serving the growing used car market and expanding into the DIFM sector, while maintaining strong customer loyalty through immediate parts availability and exceptional capital discipline.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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