Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Gottheimer sits on the House Select Committee on Intelligence: https://t.co/WVa1Om0qp1
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Representative Gottheimer sits on the House Select Committee on Intelligence: https://t.co/WVa1Om0qp1
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Sam Altman: “One of the few arbitrage opportunities left in the market is time”
“I don’t think you can beat the market in a lot of ways, but the one way I do is by making a long-term commitment to something. My new belief on how long I should hold stock in the best companies I invest in is forever. And I think in a world where people are increasingly focused on the tick and the quarterly earnings cycle, you should try to go in the other direction. This is a great way to generate value and wealth.”
Sam continues:
“And so I think that when you’re thinking about a startup, it’s really worthwhile to think about something you’re willing to make a very long-term commitment to because that is where the current void in the market is. You get paid as a founder for the wealth you create for other people… The best companies just create massive amounts of value for the world, and then they capture some of that for themselves. But they capture far less than they create, and they do it over a very long period of time. So if you’re going to be one of those companies, I think you want to make a super long-term commitment to yourself and others that are going to work on it with you… It is worth waiting because you will make far more money over the long term by doing this company really well than a bunch of short term things along the way.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
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Sam Altman: “One of the few arbitrage opportunities left in the market is time”
“I don’t think you can beat the market in a lot of ways, but the one way I do is by making a long-term commitment to something. My new belief on how long I should hold stock in the best companies I invest in is forever. And I think in a world where people are increasingly focused on the tick and the quarterly earnings cycle, you should try to go in the other direction. This is a great way to generate value and wealth.”
Sam continues:
“And so I think that when you’re thinking about a startup, it’s really worthwhile to think about something you’re willing to make a very long-term commitment to because that is where the current void in the market is. You get paid as a founder for the wealth you create for other people… The best companies just create massive amounts of value for the world, and then they capture some of that for themselves. But they capture far less than they create, and they do it over a very long period of time. So if you’re going to be one of those companies, I think you want to make a super long-term commitment to yourself and others that are going to work on it with you… It is worth waiting because you will make far more money over the long term by doing this company really well than a bunch of short term things along the way.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
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iinvested
4Q'24 The London Company - Small-Mid Cap on $CACC, $CCCS, $ESI
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/dVDkhhvUUk https://t.co/ZFLJMk68vt
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4Q'24 The London Company - Small-Mid Cap on $CACC, $CCCS, $ESI
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/dVDkhhvUUk https://t.co/ZFLJMk68vt
tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
RT @ArthurMacwaters: This is why missionary founders succeed and mercenary founders fail.
You need to believe in something and work hard on it for a long time
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RT @ArthurMacwaters: This is why missionary founders succeed and mercenary founders fail.
You need to believe in something and work hard on it for a long time
Sam Altman: “One of the few arbitrage opportunities left in the market is time”
“I don’t think you can beat the market in a lot of ways, but the one way I do is by making a long-term commitment to something. My new belief on how long I should hold stock in the best companies I invest in is forever. And I think in a world where people are increasingly focused on the tick and the quarterly earnings cycle, you should try to go in the other direction. This is a great way to generate value and wealth.”
Sam continues:
“And so I think that when you’re thinking about a startup, it’s really worthwhile to think about something you’re willing to make a very long-term commitment to because that is where the current void in the market is. You get paid as a founder for the wealth you create for other people… The best companies just create massive amounts of value for the world, and then they capture some of that for themselves. But they capture far less than they create, and they do it over a very long period of time. So if you’re going to be one of those companies, I think you want to make a super long-term commitment to yourself and others that are going to work on it with you… It is worth waiting because you will make far more money over the long term by doing this company really well than a bunch of short term things along the way.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2016) tweet
Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron India Fund on Zen Technologies Limited $ZENT IN
Thesis: Zen Technologies Limited is a leading Indian defense training and anti-drone technology company poised for substantial growth due to its innovative products, strong R&D capabilities, and increasing demand driven by global geopolitical risks and domestic manufacturing support.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Baron India Fund on Zen Technologies Limited $ZENT IN
Thesis: Zen Technologies Limited is a leading Indian defense training and anti-drone technology company poised for substantial growth due to its innovative products, strong R&D capabilities, and increasing demand driven by global geopolitical risks and domestic manufacturing support.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: We have received data on new trades by Senator Ron Wyden.
Something caught my eye:
He bought up to $100K of Eli Lilly stock on January 22nd, and then sold it three weeks later.
The stock rose approximately 15% in those three weeks.
Full trade list is up on Quiver. https://t.co/4nudcEgVAT
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JUST IN: We have received data on new trades by Senator Ron Wyden.
Something caught my eye:
He bought up to $100K of Eli Lilly stock on January 22nd, and then sold it three weeks later.
The stock rose approximately 15% in those three weeks.
Full trade list is up on Quiver. https://t.co/4nudcEgVAT
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMAT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 18.61x
•5-Year Mean: 17.93x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.68%
•5-Year Mean: 5.79%
As you can see, $AMAT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~4% LESS in earnings per share & ~2% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMAT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $8.21B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.46B
$AMAT has a great balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating, & 11x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 24.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 43.2%
•2023: 34.2%
•2024: 30.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.9%
•2020: 38.5%
•2021: 51.6%
•2022: 53.4%
•2023: 48.0%
•2024: 40.6%
$AMAT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $9.07B
•2024: $27.18B
•CAGR: 11.61%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.56B
•2024: $7.49B
•CAGR: 16.98%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.07
•2024: $8.65
•CAGR: 23.23%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.83B
By reducing its shares outstanding 32%, $AMAT increased its EPS by 47% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 29.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 23.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~4% LESS in EPS & ~2% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMAT has to grow earnings at a 9.31% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (9.31%) required growth rate:
2025E: $9.37 (8.3% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $10.14 (8.2% YoY)
2027E: $11.05 (9.0% YoY)
$AMAT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $AMAT ends 2027 with $11.05 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $243.10💵 … ~14.3% CAGR
20x P/E: $221.00💵 … ~10.2% CAGR
18x P/E: $198.90💵 … ~5.9% CAGR
16x P/E: $176.80💵 … ~1.5% CAGR
As you can see, $AMAT appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >20x earnings, a multiple well above its 10-year mean & on the higher end of its historical range
Of course demand for semiconductor equipment & materials is expected to see a huge increase over the next several years & this has gotten priced in, to an extent
So $AMAT could justify its current multiple if estimates continue to be fairly aggressive & the company executes (as they have over the last few quarters)
However, those looking to accumulate today leave themselves with no margin of safety — and we know how volatile semiconductors can be during times of uncertainty
Today at $174💵 $AMAT appears to be fully valued
I’d consider $AMAT a great opportunity closer to $150💵 or ~13% below today’s price .. where I can reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming 17.50x earnings
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMAT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 18.61x
•5-Year Mean: 17.93x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.68%
•5-Year Mean: 5.79%
As you can see, $AMAT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~4% LESS in earnings per share & ~2% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMAT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $8.21B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.46B
$AMAT has a great balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating, & 11x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 24.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 43.2%
•2023: 34.2%
•2024: 30.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.9%
•2020: 38.5%
•2021: 51.6%
•2022: 53.4%
•2023: 48.0%
•2024: 40.6%
$AMAT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $9.07B
•2024: $27.18B
•CAGR: 11.61%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.56B
•2024: $7.49B
•CAGR: 16.98%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.07
•2024: $8.65
•CAGR: 23.23%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.83B
By reducing its shares outstanding 32%, $AMAT increased its EPS by 47% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 29.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 23.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~4% LESS in EPS & ~2% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMAT has to grow earnings at a 9.31% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (9.31%) required growth rate:
2025E: $9.37 (8.3% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $10.14 (8.2% YoY)
2027E: $11.05 (9.0% YoY)
$AMAT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $AMAT ends 2027 with $11.05 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $243.10💵 … ~14.3% CAGR
20x P/E: $221.00💵 … ~10.2% CAGR
18x P/E: $198.90💵 … ~5.9% CAGR
16x P/E: $176.80💵 … ~1.5% CAGR
As you can see, $AMAT appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >20x earnings, a multiple well above its 10-year mean & on the higher end of its historical range
Of course demand for semiconductor equipment & materials is expected to see a huge increase over the next several years & this has gotten priced in, to an extent
So $AMAT could justify its current multiple if estimates continue to be fairly aggressive & the company executes (as they have over the last few quarters)
However, those looking to accumulate today leave themselves with no margin of safety — and we know how volatile semiconductors can be during times of uncertainty
Today at $174💵 $AMAT appears to be fully valued
I’d consider $AMAT a great opportunity closer to $150💵 or ~13% below today’s price .. where I can reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming 17.50x earnings
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMAT 🧘🏽♂️ •NTM P/E Ratio: 18.61x •5-Year Mean: 17.93x •NTM FCF Yield: 5.68% •5-Year Mean: 5.79% As you can see, $AMAT appears to be trading near fair value Going…
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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