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App Economy Insights
$WMT Walmart Q4 FY25 (ending January):
• Revenue +4% Y/Y to $180.6B ($1.6B beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.66 ($0.01 beat).
• Walmart US comp sales +5%.
• E-commerce +16% Y/Y.
• Advertising +29% Y/Y.
FY26 Guidance:
• Net sales +3%-4% Y/Y to ~$698B ($7B miss). https://t.co/YfUVc8vQX7
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$WMT Walmart Q4 FY25 (ending January):
• Revenue +4% Y/Y to $180.6B ($1.6B beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.66 ($0.01 beat).
• Walmart US comp sales +5%.
• E-commerce +16% Y/Y.
• Advertising +29% Y/Y.
FY26 Guidance:
• Net sales +3%-4% Y/Y to ~$698B ($7B miss). https://t.co/YfUVc8vQX7
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Mercado Libre $MELI reports its Q4 earnings today
Here are the estimates:
Revenue $5.94B (+39.43% YoY)
EPS $7.56 (+132.61% YoY)
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Additional parts of $MELI's business to keep an eye on for YoY comparison (the numbers below reflect the Q4 2023 report and YoY comparison to Q4 2022):
Commerce Services: $1.96B (45% YoY)
Commerce Product Sales: $502M (61% YoY)
Total Commerce Revenues: $2.46B (48% YoY)
Total Fintech Revenues: $1.80B (34% YoY)
Items Sold: 431M (29% YoY)
Total Payment Volume (TPV): $56.51B (153% YoY)
Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): $13.5B (79% YoY)
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Mercado Libre $MELI reports its Q4 earnings today
Here are the estimates:
Revenue $5.94B (+39.43% YoY)
EPS $7.56 (+132.61% YoY)
___
Additional parts of $MELI's business to keep an eye on for YoY comparison (the numbers below reflect the Q4 2023 report and YoY comparison to Q4 2022):
Commerce Services: $1.96B (45% YoY)
Commerce Product Sales: $502M (61% YoY)
Total Commerce Revenues: $2.46B (48% YoY)
Total Fintech Revenues: $1.80B (34% YoY)
Items Sold: 431M (29% YoY)
Total Payment Volume (TPV): $56.51B (153% YoY)
Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): $13.5B (79% YoY)
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Small Cap Fund on Enpro Inc. $NPO US
Thesis: Enpro Inc. is a diversified industrial technology company focused on high-margin, recurring revenue streams in sealing and semiconductor markets, poised for growth and margin expansion through strategic acquisitions and innovation.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Baron Small Cap Fund on Enpro Inc. $NPO US
Thesis: Enpro Inc. is a diversified industrial technology company focused on high-margin, recurring revenue streams in sealing and semiconductor markets, poised for growth and margin expansion through strategic acquisitions and innovation.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Investing visuals
$ASML: A compelling long-term investment at its current price👌 https://t.co/YdOV1G0D1q
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$ASML: A compelling long-term investment at its current price👌 https://t.co/YdOV1G0D1q
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Paul Graham: “Follow what makes users happy the way a scientist follows the truth”
“If you care enough about users, you can just follow what will make users happy the way a scientist follows the truth, and eventually without much thinking on your part, the need to grow will give you this product idea that’s the result of evolution.”
When asked what most founders get wrong, Paul replies:
“What you will get wrong is that you will not pay enough attention to users. You will make up some idea in your head that you will call your vision. And then you will spend a lot of time thinking about your vision in a cafe by yourself and build some elaborate thing without going and talking to users because that’s doing sales, which is as pain and they might say no.”
He continues:
“You’d be way better off finding someone who has a problem they will pay you to fix and fixing it and then seeing if you can find more people like that — best case is if you yourself have the problem. But you will not ship fast enough because you’re embarrassed to ship something unfinished and you don’t want to face the likely feedback you will get, so you will shrink from contact with your users. That’s the mistake you will make.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2018)
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Paul Graham: “Follow what makes users happy the way a scientist follows the truth”
“If you care enough about users, you can just follow what will make users happy the way a scientist follows the truth, and eventually without much thinking on your part, the need to grow will give you this product idea that’s the result of evolution.”
When asked what most founders get wrong, Paul replies:
“What you will get wrong is that you will not pay enough attention to users. You will make up some idea in your head that you will call your vision. And then you will spend a lot of time thinking about your vision in a cafe by yourself and build some elaborate thing without going and talking to users because that’s doing sales, which is as pain and they might say no.”
He continues:
“You’d be way better off finding someone who has a problem they will pay you to fix and fixing it and then seeing if you can find more people like that — best case is if you yourself have the problem. But you will not ship fast enough because you’re embarrassed to ship something unfinished and you don’t want to face the likely feedback you will get, so you will shrink from contact with your users. That’s the mistake you will make.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2018)
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RT @signulll: satya is in a league of his own. he actually says coherent, bold, strategically sharp things while sundar by stark contrast mostly meanders in corporate safe platitudes. satya takes real bets (openai, activision, cloud push) & owns the narrative, while sundar always feels like he’s nervously managing downside all while acting like google’s hr-approved caretaker sleepwalking through the most pivotal era of our lifetime.
it’s rare for a non-founder ceo to have this level of conviction & public presence without feeling like a generic suit. most ceos in his position would just coast on momentum, but he keeps making asymmetric moves that actually change the game.
i guess the real difference here is satya acts like a leader, sundar acts like a manager. this entire conversation is worth your time.
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RT @signulll: satya is in a league of his own. he actually says coherent, bold, strategically sharp things while sundar by stark contrast mostly meanders in corporate safe platitudes. satya takes real bets (openai, activision, cloud push) & owns the narrative, while sundar always feels like he’s nervously managing downside all while acting like google’s hr-approved caretaker sleepwalking through the most pivotal era of our lifetime.
it’s rare for a non-founder ceo to have this level of conviction & public presence without feeling like a generic suit. most ceos in his position would just coast on momentum, but he keeps making asymmetric moves that actually change the game.
i guess the real difference here is satya acts like a leader, sundar acts like a manager. this entire conversation is worth your time.
.@satyanadella on:
- why he doesn’t believe in AGI but does believe in 10% economic growth
- Microsoft’s new topological qubit breakthrough and gaming world models
- whether Office commoditizes LLMs or the other way around
Links below. Enjoy!
Timestamps
0:00:00 - Intro
0:05:48 - AI won't be winner-take-all
0:16:02 - World economy growing by 10%
0:22:23 - Decreasing price of intelligence
0:31:03 - Microsoft's Quantum breakthrough
0:43:35 - Microsoft's gaming world model
0:50:35 - Legal barriers to AI
0:56:30 - Getting AGI safety right
1:05:43 - 34 years at Microsoft
1:11:31 - Does Satya Nadella believe in AGI? tweet
twitter.com
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan International Value Strategy on RELX $REL LN
Thesis: RELX’s data-driven businesses remain strong, but AI-driven valuation expansion limits further upside.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/iqJ6jNvduL
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Artisan International Value Strategy on RELX $REL LN
Thesis: RELX’s data-driven businesses remain strong, but AI-driven valuation expansion limits further upside.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/iqJ6jNvduL
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Kash Patel has been confirmed as FBI Director.
Here are his some of his portfolio holdings, which he has said he will divest from:
- $115K of Bitcoin
- $100K of $CORZ, a Bitcoin mining company
- $100K of Palantir
- $15K of Rumble
- $15K of PublicSquare https://t.co/uKYoweicVO
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BREAKING: Kash Patel has been confirmed as FBI Director.
Here are his some of his portfolio holdings, which he has said he will divest from:
- $115K of Bitcoin
- $100K of $CORZ, a Bitcoin mining company
- $100K of Palantir
- $15K of Rumble
- $15K of PublicSquare https://t.co/uKYoweicVO
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
1 Main Capital on IWG $IWG LN
Thesis: IWG is a promising investment with significant growth potential in its managed workspace segment and strong financial improvements expected ahead of a planned share buyback.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/AbbK7gsUT9
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1 Main Capital on IWG $IWG LN
Thesis: IWG is a promising investment with significant growth potential in its managed workspace segment and strong financial improvements expected ahead of a planned share buyback.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/AbbK7gsUT9
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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Robert Garcia has received a letter from the DOJ: https://t.co/xWHXA7KlJV
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Representative Robert Garcia has received a letter from the DOJ: https://t.co/xWHXA7KlJV
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