⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Health Care Fund on Insmed Incorporated $INSM US

Thesis: Insmed Incorporated is expected to generate over $8 billion in peak sales from its lead drugs, including Brensocatib, which shows promise for treating non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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⁠Investing visuals
I don’t get the $GRAB fuzz.

Let me tell you a story, based on firsthand experiences from my girlfriend. A must-read for anyone interested in $GRAB 👇

1 -- $UBER vs. $GRAB: The Rise of $GRAB 🚀

My girlfriend loves traveling and spent time in Indonesia in 2016. Back then, $UBER dominated the market.

Fast forward to 2023 -- she visited again, and $GRAB had taken over. Here’s why she found it compelling:

“Super easy to use, it was basically everywhere with high availability.”

“They had a lot of scooters, which is the main form of transport there. $UBER didn’t have that.”

“It was crazy cheap, so everyone was using it back then.”

Sounds great for $GRAB, right?

2 -- But hold on… 🤔

So I asked: “What if $UBER returned with the same offerings at lower costs?”

Her response:
“I would just pick $UBER, easy choice. But they should have high availability as well.”

She also added: “If $UBER wants a strong foothold, they should incentivize the drivers.”

Interesting right? Let's dive in a little deeper.

3 -- Did you know... 💡

That $UBER actually holds a 27.5% stake in $GRAB? So what happened here?

$UBER played the game masterfully.

When $GRAB started gaining market share (2015–2017), $UBER shifted strategy. Instead of fighting to win at all costs, they focused on expanding their global dominance.

The result?
• $UBER contained $GRAB within its Asia bubble
• Meanwhile, $UBER expanded globally

Fast forward to today:
• $UBER is the dominant global player
• $GRAB is still stuck in its Asia bubble

And the best part? If $GRAB wins in Asia, $UBER wins too, thanks to its 27.5% stake.

4 -- The Investor POV 🔎

When I invest, I look for sustainable competitive advantages. Something that truly differentiates a business.

With $GRAB, I don’t see what sets it apart besides pricing. That’s the core of its growth story.

Let’s talk numbers:
• $UBER: $6.9B LTM free cash flow
• $GRAB: $0.5B LTM free cash flow

If $UBER wanted to crush $GRAB by undercutting prices, incentivizing drivers, and ensuring high scooter availability, what could $GRAB do to stop them?

Of course, they won’t - given their 27.5% stake - but if they wanted to, they absolutely could.

$GRAB feels very fragile, not to mention the limited global expansion options. $UBER already has a dominant global presence. How will $GRAB ever compete on a larger scale?

4 -- Conclusion (TL;DR) 🧐

$GRAB might do well in Asia, but that's solely because $UBER ALLOWS them to.

The question is: What makes you think $GRAB can actually compete with $UBER, especially given their global dominance and scale? Why would you prefer $GRAB over $UBER?

I haven’t found the answer to that (yet).
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 10 Stocks Where FCF CAGR is Similar or Greater than Stock Price CAGR in the Past 5 Years 💸

🌐 MSCI Inc $MSCI
•FCF CAGR: 16.2%
•Stock CAGR: 12.2%

🧬 Novo Nordisk $NVO
•FCF CAGR: 21.4%
•Stock CAGR: 19.7%

📈 S&P Global $SPGI
•FCF CAGR: 17.2%
•Stock CAGR: 11.9%

🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
•FCF CAGR: 18.6%
•Stock CAGR: 19.7%

🗂️ Intuit $INTU
•FCF CAGR: 16.4%
•Stock CAGR: 14.1%

📊 Manhattan Associates $MANH
•FCF CAGR: 16.8%
•Stock CAGR: 18.9%

💵 Mastercard $MA
•FCF CAGR: 19.4%
•Stock CAGR: 10.6%

🚘 Copart $CPRT
•FCF CAGR: 28.7%
•Stock CAGR: 18.1%

🏦 Intercontinental Exchange $ICE
•FCF CAGR: 10.1%
•Stock CAGR: 11.5%

📲 Applied Materials $AMAT
•FCF CAGR: 21.7%
•Stock CAGR: 20.4%
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
“Congress is a rich man’s club” https://t.co/aWbpchUrRK
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⁠Finding Compounders
Warren Buffett on inflation proof businesses

These are the types of businesses you want to own in an inflationary environment https://t.co/te92C4V1L5
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $INTU 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.70x
•10-Year Mean: 33.57x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.49%
•10-Year Mean: 3.68%

As you can see, $INTU appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~12% MORE in earnings per share & ~5% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $INTU is a good business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.63B

$INTU has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 22x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 43.9%
•2020: 25.2%
•2021: 19.7%
•2022: 10.7%
•2023: 13.1%
•2024: 15.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 47.4%
•2020: 41.2%
•2021: 27.5%
•2022: 15.7%
•2023: 14.1%
•2024: 16.6%

$INTU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.24B
•2024: $16.29B
•CAGR: 14.40%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.69B
•CAGR: 13.34%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $3.49
•2024: $16.94
•CAGR: 17.11%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $0.76
•2024: $3.60
•CAGR: 16.82%

SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 291.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 284.00M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~2.4%, $INTU increased its EPS by ~2.5% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 79.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 23.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 17.6%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in EPS & ~5% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $INTU has to grow earnings at a 14.85% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (14.85%) required growth rate:

2025E: $19.29 (13.9% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $22.08 (14.4% YoY)
2027E: $25.14 (13.9% YoY)

$INTU has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $INTU ends 2027 with $25.14 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:

32x P/E: $804.48💵 … ~14.3% CAGR

31x P/E: $779.34💵 … ~12.9% CAGR

30x P/E: $754.20💵 … ~11.4% CAGR

29x P/E: $729.06💵 … ~9.9% CAGR

28x P/E: $703.92💵 … ~8.3% CAGR

While it’s certainly reasonable for $INTU to trade for 32x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety

Yet, given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 29x - 31x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $585💵

I consider $INTU a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $545💵, or ~27.60x NTM earnings (~6% below todays price)

Given today’s estimates, at $545💵 I can reasonably expect ~10% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 27x multiple
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧[...]

𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @twistartups: Palmer thinks hardcore hobbyists make the best employees, because they'd already be obsessing about the subject and the product. Do you agree? Is it possible to get really good at your job if you didn't already LOVE that field to begin with? https://t.co/UoXWbd21ML

Palmer Luckey on what he looks for when hiring people at Anduril

“The most important advice that I can give people is to work on projects that you care about. Don’t look to school — whether it’s college or the state-mandated educational system. Don’t look to them to tell you, ‘Here’s what electronics projects you should be working on.’”

There’s two reasons Palmer gives aspiring young innovators this advice:

“Schools are often years (sometimes decades) behind what industry and hobbyists are actually doing.”
“When you’re working on something that you’re only doing for yourself, you’re going to make way better decisions in what you teach yourself and how you do things.”

In fact, this is also what he looks for when hiring people at Anduril:

“When I hire people at Anduril, I look for people who have done projects that were outside of what their work paid them to do or what their school made them do because that means they’re the type of person who is willing to work on things with their own money and their own time because they want to bring something to this world that wouldn’t have existed otherwise.”

Palmer continues:

“That’s what drive you to learn the most. That’s what drives you to have the right attitude around all this stuff.”

Video source: @ShawnRyan762 (2025) - Startup Archive
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⁠Ahmad Jivraj
Some great podcast episodes listed here

I’m a little late but time for some of my favorite podcasts from 2024. Starting it off was my favorite pod of the year. The @ShaneAParrish interview with Chris Davis. Loved this one. https://t.co/bJyqGkhFxV - Small Cap Value Opportunities
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