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iinvested
4Q'24 Baron Asset Fund on $TTIN
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/dVDkhhvUUk https://t.co/pHvqkqOfF0
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4Q'24 Baron Asset Fund on $TTIN
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/dVDkhhvUUk https://t.co/pHvqkqOfF0
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Elon Musk explains how anyone can learn to be innovative
“I think it’s possible to learn to be innovative. A lot of times for any given thing, you have to say, ‘Did you try?’ This may sound obvious, but actually try. Somebody might wonder, ‘Can I be innovative?’ Well, have you tried? Just try thinking of interesting ideas.”
To think of interesting ideas, Elon recommends reading:
“If you read about a bunch of different fields, you can cross-fertilize ideas from one field into another.”
He gives Tesla and SpaceX as an example of this:
“The automotive industry is very good at manufacturing. In terms of manufacturing complex machines at volume, the automotive industry is the best. While the space industry is very good at advanced materials and making things very light. So taking advanced materials and mass-optimization concepts from the space industry and applying it to automotive or taking automotive mass-manufacturing techniques and applying it to space is kind of like a superpower.”
Musk also points out that being willing to fail is an important part of innovation too:
“If you’re not failing at least some of the time, you’re not trying hard enough.”
Video source: @WestPoint_USMA (2025)
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Elon Musk explains how anyone can learn to be innovative
“I think it’s possible to learn to be innovative. A lot of times for any given thing, you have to say, ‘Did you try?’ This may sound obvious, but actually try. Somebody might wonder, ‘Can I be innovative?’ Well, have you tried? Just try thinking of interesting ideas.”
To think of interesting ideas, Elon recommends reading:
“If you read about a bunch of different fields, you can cross-fertilize ideas from one field into another.”
He gives Tesla and SpaceX as an example of this:
“The automotive industry is very good at manufacturing. In terms of manufacturing complex machines at volume, the automotive industry is the best. While the space industry is very good at advanced materials and making things very light. So taking advanced materials and mass-optimization concepts from the space industry and applying it to automotive or taking automotive mass-manufacturing techniques and applying it to space is kind of like a superpower.”
Musk also points out that being willing to fail is an important part of innovation too:
“If you’re not failing at least some of the time, you’re not trying hard enough.”
Video source: @WestPoint_USMA (2025)
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $INTU 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.70x
•10-Year Mean: 33.57x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.49%
•10-Year Mean: 3.68%
As you can see, $INTU appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~12% MORE in earnings per share & ~5% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $INTU is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.63B
$INTU has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 22x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 43.9%
•2020: 25.2%
•2021: 19.7%
•2022: 10.7%
•2023: 13.1%
•2024: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 47.4%
•2020: 41.2%
•2021: 27.5%
•2022: 15.7%
•2023: 14.1%
•2024: 16.6%
$INTU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.24B
•2024: $16.29B
•CAGR: 14.40%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.69B
•CAGR: 13.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $3.49
•2024: $16.94
•CAGR: 17.11%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $0.76
•2024: $3.60
•CAGR: 16.82%
SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 291.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 284.00M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~2.4%, $INTU increased its EPS by ~2.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 79.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 23.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 17.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in EPS & ~5% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $INTU has to grow earnings at a 14.85% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (14.85%) required growth rate:
2025E: $19.29 (13.9% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $22.08 (14.4% YoY)
2027E: $25.14 (13.9% YoY)
$INTU has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $INTU ends 2027 with $25.14 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $804.48💵 … ~14.3% CAGR
31x P/E: $779.34💵 … ~12.9% CAGR
30x P/E: $754.20💵 … ~11.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $729.06💵 … ~9.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $703.92💵 … ~8.3% CAGR
While it’s certainly reasonable for $INTU to trade for 32x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety
Yet, given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 29x - 31x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $585💵
I consider $INTU a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $545💵, or ~27.60x NTM earnings (~6% below todays price)
Given today’s estimates, at $545💵 I can reasonably expect ~10% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 27x multiple
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $INTU 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.70x
•10-Year Mean: 33.57x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.49%
•10-Year Mean: 3.68%
As you can see, $INTU appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~12% MORE in earnings per share & ~5% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $INTU is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.63B
$INTU has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 22x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 43.9%
•2020: 25.2%
•2021: 19.7%
•2022: 10.7%
•2023: 13.1%
•2024: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 47.4%
•2020: 41.2%
•2021: 27.5%
•2022: 15.7%
•2023: 14.1%
•2024: 16.6%
$INTU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.24B
•2024: $16.29B
•CAGR: 14.40%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.69B
•CAGR: 13.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $3.49
•2024: $16.94
•CAGR: 17.11%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $0.76
•2024: $3.60
•CAGR: 16.82%
SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 291.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 284.00M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~2.4%, $INTU increased its EPS by ~2.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 79.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 23.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 17.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in EPS & ~5% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $INTU has to grow earnings at a 14.85% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (14.85%) required growth rate:
2025E: $19.29 (13.9% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $22.08 (14.4% YoY)
2027E: $25.14 (13.9% YoY)
$INTU has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $INTU ends 2027 with $25.14 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $804.48💵 … ~14.3% CAGR
31x P/E: $779.34💵 … ~12.9% CAGR
30x P/E: $754.20💵 … ~11.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $729.06💵 … ~9.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $703.92💵 … ~8.3% CAGR
While it’s certainly reasonable for $INTU to trade for 32x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety
Yet, given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 29x - 31x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $585💵
I consider $INTU a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $545💵, or ~27.60x NTM earnings (~6% below todays price)
Given today’s estimates, at $545💵 I can reasonably expect ~10% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 27x multiple
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® A quality valuation analysis on $INTU 🧘🏽♂️ •NTM P/E Ratio: 29.70x •10-Year Mean: 33.57x •NTM FCF Yield: 3.49% •10-Year Mean: 3.68% As you can see, $INTU appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value…
𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Investing visuals
Tesla $TSLA auto sales account for 93% of their revenue and is declining right now.
When do you think RoboTaxi, FSD and Optimus revenue will kick in? 🤔 https://t.co/VhleGLsbRq
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Tesla $TSLA auto sales account for 93% of their revenue and is declining right now.
When do you think RoboTaxi, FSD and Optimus revenue will kick in? 🤔 https://t.co/VhleGLsbRq
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
River Oaks on Medical Facilities $DR CN
Thesis: Medical Facilities’ undervaluation and potential asset sales could unlock significant shareholder value
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/ulyR0smcGY
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River Oaks on Medical Facilities $DR CN
Thesis: Medical Facilities’ undervaluation and potential asset sales could unlock significant shareholder value
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/ulyR0smcGY
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Quiver Quantitative
Senator Mike Lee and Representative Claudia Tenney have introduced legislation to ban federal funding towards PBS and NPR. https://t.co/KIL4tBFGzk
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Senator Mike Lee and Representative Claudia Tenney have introduced legislation to ban federal funding towards PBS and NPR. https://t.co/KIL4tBFGzk
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