Offshore
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App Economy Insights
$MCD McDonald's Q4 FY24:
• Global comparable sales +0.4% Y/Y.
• Systemwide sales +2% Y/Y.
• Revenue -0.3% Y/Y to $6.4B ($90M miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $2.83 ($0.03 miss). https://t.co/nhaNfJAAb6
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$MCD McDonald's Q4 FY24:
• Global comparable sales +0.4% Y/Y.
• Systemwide sales +2% Y/Y.
• Revenue -0.3% Y/Y to $6.4B ($90M miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $2.83 ($0.03 miss). https://t.co/nhaNfJAAb6
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Facebook stock, $META, has now risen 26% since Marjorie Taylor Greene bought in. https://t.co/7RcnUTXY0X
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Facebook stock, $META, has now risen 26% since Marjorie Taylor Greene bought in. https://t.co/7RcnUTXY0X
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
This keeps getting wilder.
We posted this report on Nancy Pelosi's purchase of Tempus AI call options last month.
$TEM has now risen 123% since her trade.
Up again today. https://t.co/Qns4yq5Ihm
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This keeps getting wilder.
We posted this report on Nancy Pelosi's purchase of Tempus AI call options last month.
$TEM has now risen 123% since her trade.
Up again today. https://t.co/Qns4yq5Ihm
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: We just received an update on the portfolio of Florida's state retirement fund.
They opened a $1.9M position in Trump Media, $DJT.
They are now one of the largest institutional holders of the stock, per our data. https://t.co/OKnOaUwCIx
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BREAKING: We just received an update on the portfolio of Florida's state retirement fund.
They opened a $1.9M position in Trump Media, $DJT.
They are now one of the largest institutional holders of the stock, per our data. https://t.co/OKnOaUwCIx
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
11 months ago I shared my analysis on $MANH stock, stating it was overvalued at $257💵
I suggested revisiting the stock at $179💵
Today, after a -30% decline, $MANH trades for $179🎯
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential
While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate
In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns
While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵
Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price”
A sober valuation analysis on $MANH 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 70.66x
•5-Year Mean: 61.90x
•NTM FCF Yield: 1.63%
•5-Year Mean: 2.11%
As you can see, $MANH appears to be trading above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~12% LESS in earnings per share & ~23% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MANH is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Total Inv: $270.74M
•Long-Term Debt: $0
$MANH has a strong balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 91.0%
•2019: 66.3%
•2020: 46.2%
•2021: 49.1%
•2022: 63.4%
•2023: 69.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2018: 65.0%
•2019: 59.3%
•2020: 48.3%
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 54.0%
•2023: 69.9%
$MANH has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $414.52M
•2023: $928.73M
•CAGR: 8.40%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $84.65M
•2023: $241.49M
•CAGR: 11.05%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.92
•2023: $3.74
•CAGR: 15.05%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 75.84M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 62.61M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~17.4%, $MANH increased its EPS by ~21.0% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 53.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 19.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% LESS in EPS & ~23% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MANH has to grow earnings at a 35.33% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (35.33%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.77 (0.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.36 (15.9% YoY)
2026E: $5.08 (16.4% YoY)
$MANH has a solid track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MANH ends 2026 with $5.08 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
60x P/E: $304.80💵 … ~6.1% CAGR
57x P/E: $289.56💵 … ~4.2% CAGR
54x P/E: $274.32💵 … ~2.2% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential
While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate
In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns
While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵
Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 �[...]
11 months ago I shared my analysis on $MANH stock, stating it was overvalued at $257💵
I suggested revisiting the stock at $179💵
Today, after a -30% decline, $MANH trades for $179🎯
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential
While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate
In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns
While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵
Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price”
A sober valuation analysis on $MANH 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 70.66x
•5-Year Mean: 61.90x
•NTM FCF Yield: 1.63%
•5-Year Mean: 2.11%
As you can see, $MANH appears to be trading above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~12% LESS in earnings per share & ~23% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MANH is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Total Inv: $270.74M
•Long-Term Debt: $0
$MANH has a strong balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 91.0%
•2019: 66.3%
•2020: 46.2%
•2021: 49.1%
•2022: 63.4%
•2023: 69.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2018: 65.0%
•2019: 59.3%
•2020: 48.3%
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 54.0%
•2023: 69.9%
$MANH has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $414.52M
•2023: $928.73M
•CAGR: 8.40%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $84.65M
•2023: $241.49M
•CAGR: 11.05%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.92
•2023: $3.74
•CAGR: 15.05%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 75.84M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 62.61M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~17.4%, $MANH increased its EPS by ~21.0% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 53.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 19.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% LESS in EPS & ~23% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MANH has to grow earnings at a 35.33% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (35.33%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.77 (0.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.36 (15.9% YoY)
2026E: $5.08 (16.4% YoY)
$MANH has a solid track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MANH ends 2026 with $5.08 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
60x P/E: $304.80💵 … ~6.1% CAGR
57x P/E: $289.56💵 … ~4.2% CAGR
54x P/E: $274.32💵 … ~2.2% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential
While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate
In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns
While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵
Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 �[...]