⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Protean Funds on Essity $ESSITY SS

Thesis: Essity is a stronger company than the market recognizes, strategically exiting volatile sectors and focusing on high-margin products, with limited downside potential and an upcoming change in leadership.

(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/YG9NYLFqBZ
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Senator Dave McCormick just disclosed a sale of his whole ~$5M position in Rumble stock, $RUM. https://t.co/RP3xXsGbsy
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: Representative Josh Gottheimer has proposed legislation to ban the use of DeepSeek by executive agencies.

Do you support this?

Poll below. https://t.co/LPrwISYmHJ
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⁠InsideArbitrage
Merck KGaA, the German healthcare and technology group, is in advanced talks to acquire U.S. cancer and rare diseases drugmaker Springworks Therapeutics $SWTX, Reuters reported.
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Chris Deluzio appears to be re-introducing a bill which would invest $200B in high-speed rail across the United States. https://t.co/X6vbBQR6uv
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⁠Investing visuals
David $AMD vs Goliath $NVDA: an overview of how they stack up against each other👇 https://t.co/HJAaDaOezg
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Aristotle Large Cap Growth on Amphenol $APH US

Thesis: Amphenol is poised for double-digit sales growth driven by increased demand for interconnect products in AI-enabled datacenters, supported by strong cash flow and diversified market exposure.

(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/eyXV9y1nYF
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Viasat stock has now risen 63% since we posted this report: https://t.co/Jn4eXjW9YY
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: After properly assessing the company’s overvaluation, here’s a brief update on $MANH

Using 2027 EPS estimate of $5.85:

45x P/E: $263.25💵 … ~14.5% CAGR

40x P/E: $234.00💵 … ~7.9% CAGR

35x P/E: $204.75💵 … ~1.0% CAGR

I’d have to assume >40x given today’s estimates which leaves me with no margin of safety

While it is an excellent business, I’d likely get more interested in $MANH closer to $170💵 where I could reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming a 35x multiple

10 months ago I shared my analysis on $MANH suggesting it was overvalued at $257💵

I suggested revisiting the stock at $179💵

Despite a strong run, $MANH just plummeted -23% post-Q4 earnings 📉

As I stated in my analysis:

“As you can see, we’d have to assume well above a 60x multiple in order for $MANH to have attractive return potential

While this could happen, this assumption leaves us with no margin of safety, especially considering that the multiple does not appear to be justified by the growth rate

In fact, in the last 10 years, $MANH multiple expanded by ~84% — implying that multiple expansion has contributed heavily to its returns

While $MANH is a quality business that I hope to own at some point, I don’t consider it anywhere near the buy zone today at $257.50💵

Instead, I’d start to get interested (*interested*) closer to 50x earnings or at $179💵 — 30% below today’s price”

#stocks #investing - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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