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Startup Archive
Peter Thiel on the biggest lesson he learned in 10+ years of venture capital
Thiel explains how his biggest miss as a VC (not doing Facebook’s full Series B) led to a key insight:
“Once something works, people often underestimate it. And when things aren’t working, they underestimate how much trouble they’re in.”
When he backtested Founders Fund’s portfolio, he found that every time a company had a big up-round led by a smart investor, it was always a good idea to do your pro rata. And it was almost always a bad idea in a down- or flat-round.
In fact, the steeper the up-round, the cheaper it was.
His biggest miss of the last decade was not doing the full Series B at Facebook. It was a 12x up-round in eight months.
“It was the steepest up-round in that amount of time in any company we’ve been involved in. And in retrospect, that was perhaps also the cheapest… And I think one of the reasons it was so underpriced was that… even the people on the inside often underestimate how much things have changed… You have these subtle but very important points where somehow the leverage and dynamics shift very powerfully and they tend to get very underestimated.”
Video source: @twistartups @jason (2015)
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Peter Thiel on the biggest lesson he learned in 10+ years of venture capital
Thiel explains how his biggest miss as a VC (not doing Facebook’s full Series B) led to a key insight:
“Once something works, people often underestimate it. And when things aren’t working, they underestimate how much trouble they’re in.”
When he backtested Founders Fund’s portfolio, he found that every time a company had a big up-round led by a smart investor, it was always a good idea to do your pro rata. And it was almost always a bad idea in a down- or flat-round.
In fact, the steeper the up-round, the cheaper it was.
His biggest miss of the last decade was not doing the full Series B at Facebook. It was a 12x up-round in eight months.
“It was the steepest up-round in that amount of time in any company we’ve been involved in. And in retrospect, that was perhaps also the cheapest… And I think one of the reasons it was so underpriced was that… even the people on the inside often underestimate how much things have changed… You have these subtle but very important points where somehow the leverage and dynamics shift very powerfully and they tend to get very underestimated.”
Video source: @twistartups @jason (2015)
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Investing visuals
Amazon $AMZN had a decent quarter but a relatively weak guide. Here's a full breakdown of $AMZN after its Q4 2024 results👇 https://t.co/KoTjKjVTtJ
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Amazon $AMZN had a decent quarter but a relatively weak guide. Here's a full breakdown of $AMZN after its Q4 2024 results👇 https://t.co/KoTjKjVTtJ
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
O'Keefe Stevens on Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) $DFIN US
Thesis: Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) is a leading provider of compliance and regulatory solutions with a strong focus on recurring revenue growth and robust market positioning, despite facing short-term challenges.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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O'Keefe Stevens on Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) $DFIN US
Thesis: Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) is a leading provider of compliance and regulatory solutions with a strong focus on recurring revenue growth and robust market positioning, despite facing short-term challenges.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
RT @karrisaarinen: It's all about the care. Someone needs to care to make something good.
You cannot set goals or measure it. You need to hire people who care and give them the time and space to care.
Love that more CEOs, including public company CEOs talk about this! @tobi
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RT @karrisaarinen: It's all about the care. Someone needs to care to make something good.
You cannot set goals or measure it. You need to hire people who care and give them the time and space to care.
Love that more CEOs, including public company CEOs talk about this! @tobi
Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke: It’s impossible to make great products if you don’t give a sh*t
“Every product in the world, at the end of the day, is simply a reflection of how much the people who created it gave a sh*t… It is not possible to make great products if the people who work on it do not give a sh*t about the product.”
Tobi continues:
“I actually think this is a very important role for product leaders: To make sure that the team gives a sh*it… The product leader has to give a sh*t. Do not engage in work on a product that you don’t care about.”
Tobi believes anyone who wants to build great products has two roles:
1. “You have to understand the thing that’s being done better than everyone else.”
2. “You’ve got to be exothermically infectious with actually caring about this thing because just that one thing alone will make a 10x better product. It’s crazy how much of a change this makes.”
Video source: @lennysan (2025) tweet
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InsideArbitrage
The InsideArbitrage Friday Wrap is out!
"Spencer Rascoff to Lead Match Group Turnaround "
👉Full Article link in the final tweet.
🧵1/10 https://t.co/ZSe8LUE7ZS
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The InsideArbitrage Friday Wrap is out!
"Spencer Rascoff to Lead Match Group Turnaround "
👉Full Article link in the final tweet.
🧵1/10 https://t.co/ZSe8LUE7ZS
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Who said big tobacco is dead? Philip Morris $PM just reported 52.9% YoY growth in ZYNs 📈
✅Rev: $9.71B vs $9.44B (est) | +7% YoY
✅EPS: $1.55 vs $1.50 (est) | +14% YoY https://t.co/kPYzSnBW0D
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Who said big tobacco is dead? Philip Morris $PM just reported 52.9% YoY growth in ZYNs 📈
✅Rev: $9.71B vs $9.44B (est) | +7% YoY
✅EPS: $1.55 vs $1.50 (est) | +14% YoY https://t.co/kPYzSnBW0D
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @skhetpal: 90% of US banks use FICO scores to decide who gets a loan.
That's helped the stock rise over 2,000% in the past 10 years.
Here’s how FICO built a near-monopoly: https://t.co/f1kTAF5RTn
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RT @skhetpal: 90% of US banks use FICO scores to decide who gets a loan.
That's helped the stock rise over 2,000% in the past 10 years.
Here’s how FICO built a near-monopoly: https://t.co/f1kTAF5RTn
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Offshore
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InsideArbitrage
$AME AMETEK announces 👇👇
🔸A new $1.25 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization that replaces the prior $1 billion plan (May 2022) of which $590 million remain
🔸11% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.31 from $0.28 per share
🔸Appoints Isabel S. Wells as Vice President, Information Technology and Chief Information Officer
🔸Appoints William P. Callahan Vice President and General Manager, Aerospace & Defense Division
🔸 Recent Q4 2024 results - missed both revenue (by $58.16M) and EPS (by $0.17) estimates
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$AME AMETEK announces 👇👇
🔸A new $1.25 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization that replaces the prior $1 billion plan (May 2022) of which $590 million remain
🔸11% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.31 from $0.28 per share
🔸Appoints Isabel S. Wells as Vice President, Information Technology and Chief Information Officer
🔸Appoints William P. Callahan Vice President and General Manager, Aerospace & Defense Division
🔸 Recent Q4 2024 results - missed both revenue (by $58.16M) and EPS (by $0.17) estimates
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Rogue Funds on ASP Isotopes $ASPI US
Thesis: ASP Isotopes is poised for significant market impact with its undervalued medical isotope business, strong margins, and unique production capabilities in Silicon-28.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/k45Zy3OeMM
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Rogue Funds on ASP Isotopes $ASPI US
Thesis: ASP Isotopes is poised for significant market impact with its undervalued medical isotope business, strong margins, and unique production capabilities in Silicon-28.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/k45Zy3OeMM
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