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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
On June 6, 2023 I stated: “I wouldn’t be surprised to see $ELF trade 30-40% lower if the fundamentals don’t substantially improve”
$ELF is now down -16% since
“In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine. But in the long run, it is a weighing machine” — Ben Graham 🗣️ https://t.co/CZcMcvJpa9
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On June 6, 2023 I stated: “I wouldn’t be surprised to see $ELF trade 30-40% lower if the fundamentals don’t substantially improve”
$ELF is now down -16% since
“In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine. But in the long run, it is a weighing machine” — Ben Graham 🗣️ https://t.co/CZcMcvJpa9
Thanks for the question. $ELF is trading well-above fair value:
•NTM P/E Ratio: 58.37x
•5-Year Mean: 36.21x
•NTM FCF Yield: 1.99%
•5-Year Mean: 4.06%
In the last 5-Years $ELF multiple doubled, meaning that shares rallied way more than EPS growth. At a 58 P/E there are some pretty huge growth assumptions being made & I highly doubt $ELF will meet expectations
Also, today, investors are receiving less than half the average FCF Yield
And in terms of quality, $ELF return metrics leave much to be desired
Both $ULTA & $EL are much higher quality businesses
I wouldn’t be surprised to see $ELF trade 30-40% lower if the fundamentals don’t substantially improve
#stocks #investing
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capital® and its representatives do not have positions in the securities discussed in this tweet.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬. 𝐈𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $DDD is up almost 20% so far today, and is now up 25% since we reported on their CEO's insider purchase in December https://t.co/wsiCqbHoGi
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RT @InsiderRadar: $DDD is up almost 20% so far today, and is now up 25% since we reported on their CEO's insider purchase in December https://t.co/wsiCqbHoGi
🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $DDD has reported the purchase of ~$230K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 6%.
This is the first insider purchase he has reported in over 2 years tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.48x
•10-Year Mean: 23.69x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.77%
•10-Year Mean: 4.18%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~1% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $93.23B
•Long-Term Debt: $10.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 370x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 31.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 32.1%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $136.82B
•2024E: $307.39
•CAGR: 18.15%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $11.42B
•2024E: $75.45B
•CAGR: 20.78%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.28
•2024E: $7.98
•CAGR: 20.08%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.51B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~12.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 32.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~1% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at an 11.74% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.74%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.98 (37.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $9.00 (12.7% YoY)
2026E: $10.25 (13.9% YoY)
2027E: $11.86 (15.7% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $GOOG ends 2027 with $11.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $274.64💵 … ~12.1% CAGR
23x P/E: $272.78💵 … ~10.4% CAGR
22x P/E: $260.92💵 … ~8.7% CAGR
21x P/E: $249.06💵 … ~7.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $237.20💵 … ~5.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >23x earnings (a multiple near its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At >24x earnings, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~24x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Those buying $GOOG today at $206💵 are getting a great business at a fair price
Between cloud ☁️ , AI 🤖 , quantum computing ⚛️, $GOOG has a strong growth runway ahead
I consider $GOOG a strong buy with a substantial margin of safety closer to $180💵 where I could conservatively expect double-digit CAGR while assuming a 20x multiple
$GOOGL
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥�[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.48x
•10-Year Mean: 23.69x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.77%
•10-Year Mean: 4.18%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~1% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $93.23B
•Long-Term Debt: $10.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 370x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 31.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 32.1%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $136.82B
•2024E: $307.39
•CAGR: 18.15%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $11.42B
•2024E: $75.45B
•CAGR: 20.78%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.28
•2024E: $7.98
•CAGR: 20.08%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.51B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~12.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 32.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~1% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at an 11.74% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.74%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.98 (37.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $9.00 (12.7% YoY)
2026E: $10.25 (13.9% YoY)
2027E: $11.86 (15.7% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $GOOG ends 2027 with $11.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $274.64💵 … ~12.1% CAGR
23x P/E: $272.78💵 … ~10.4% CAGR
22x P/E: $260.92💵 … ~8.7% CAGR
21x P/E: $249.06💵 … ~7.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $237.20💵 … ~5.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >23x earnings (a multiple near its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At >24x earnings, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~24x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Those buying $GOOG today at $206💵 are getting a great business at a fair price
Between cloud ☁️ , AI 🤖 , quantum computing ⚛️, $GOOG has a strong growth runway ahead
I consider $GOOG a strong buy with a substantial margin of safety closer to $180💵 where I could conservatively expect double-digit CAGR while assuming a 20x multiple
$GOOGL
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥�[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽♂️ •NTM P/E Ratio: 23.48x •10-Year Mean: 23.69x •NTM FCF Yield: 3.77% •10-Year Mean: 4.18% As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading near fair value Going forward, investors…
�, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Alluvial Capital on Net Lease Office Properties $NLOP US
Thesis: Alluvial Fund's largest holding is Net Lease Office Properties, which is effectively liquidating its assets and significantly reducing debt, positioning itself for potential shareholder distributions despite challenges in the office market.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Alluvial Capital on Net Lease Office Properties $NLOP US
Thesis: Alluvial Fund's largest holding is Net Lease Office Properties, which is effectively liquidating its assets and significantly reducing debt, positioning itself for potential shareholder distributions despite challenges in the office market.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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AkhenOsiris
AI is working
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AI is working
US JOLTS JOB OPENINGS ACTUAL 7.6M (FORECAST 8M, PREVIOUS 8.098M) - *Walter Bloombergtweet
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: Senator James Lankford has introduced a bill to prohibit discrimination based on political affiliation in granting disaster aid.
Do you support this?
Poll below. https://t.co/xneIKmllXI
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RT @QuiverCongress: Senator James Lankford has introduced a bill to prohibit discrimination based on political affiliation in granting disaster aid.
Do you support this?
Poll below. https://t.co/xneIKmllXI
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Greystone Capital Management on Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) $IVFH US
Thesis: Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) is poised for sustained profitability and growth in specialty food distribution following strategic asset divestitures, cost reductions, and new retail partnerships, culminating in ambitious revenue and EBITDA margin goals.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Greystone Capital Management on Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) $IVFH US
Thesis: Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) is poised for sustained profitability and growth in specialty food distribution following strategic asset divestitures, cost reductions, and new retail partnerships, culminating in ambitious revenue and EBITDA margin goals.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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