⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.14x
•5-Year Mean: 42.92x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.01%
•5-Year Mean: 2.32%

As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~42% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
•Long-Term Debt: $8.46B

$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 19.1%
•2021: 19.1%
•2022: 26.0%
•2023: 16.2%
•2024: 60.5%
•LTM: 92.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 26.0%
•2021: 29.8%
•2022: 44.8%
•2023: 17.9%
•2024: 91.5%
•LTM: 127.2%

$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2020: $10.92B
•2025E: $129.23B
•CAGR: 63.94%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $4.27B
•2025E: $64.54B
•CAGR: 72.13%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $0.14
•2025E: $2.95
•CAGR: 83.96%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅ (nominal change)
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B

“✅” as $NVDA is investing in its own growth, driving innovation, and expanding its market leadership. This strategic use of capital is generating higher returns for investors

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~42% MORE in EPS & ~29% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 15.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.07%) required growth rate:

2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan

2026E: $4.45 (50.6% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.2% YoY)

$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

30x P/E: $168.30💵 … ~19.1% CAGR

29x P/E: $162.69💵 … ~17.1% CAGR

28x P/E: $157.08💵 … ~15.0% CAGR

27x P/E: $151.47💵 … ~13.0% CAGR

26x P/E: $145.86💵 … ~10.9% CAGR

As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN IF we assume >26x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple that’s justified given the company’s growth rate & moat

$NVDA is a good consideration today at $118.58💵

Given its volatility, I’d likely strategically buy in tranches, enhancing margin of safety, while positioning myself to win-win regardless of short-term price action

E.g. purchase 1/3 at ~$118, 1/3 at ~$100, & 1/3 at ~$87

If the stock price goes 📉 I can accumulate more shares at an even more attractive valuation, if the stock price goes 📈 I’m in the green

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢[...]

𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠InsideArbitrage
📢 Specialty retailer - Tandy Leather Factory $TLF Announces Completion of HQ Sale and Lease of New Space; Declares a special dividend of $1.50 per share

▪️ The dividend will be payable on February 18, 2025, to stockholders of record on February 3, 2025

▪️ The Company’s Board recently appointed Johan Hedberg as the Company’s new CEO and a member of its Board, effective January 6, 2025

▪️ The Company also announced that current Director Eric Speron will step down from the Company's Board as of January 31, 2025
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Greystone Capital Management on Sylogist $SYZ CN

Thesis: Sylogist’s high recurring revenues, solid growth, and counter-cyclical software demand support strong long-term upside potential

(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/ZavYn9JoTO
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⁠Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
Calculating ROIC Contest (Tutorial):

$META in <90 seconds https://t.co/czbcgp7nr5
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi bought Tempus AI call options earlier this month.

$TEM has now risen 64% since we posted this report. https://t.co/ZJiv27nusT
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AkhenOsiris
Long ways off? Means another massive order cycle by Chinese before curbs take hold...supply constraints...post-deepseek a different world for the stock however

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: $NVDA TRUMP OFFICIALS DISCUSS TIGHTENING CURBS ON NVIDIA CHINA SALES. - FinancialJuice
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AkhenOsiris
Gotta love markets, multi-trillion dollar stock will be hanging on the words of a few customer CEOs tonight. Any innocuous remark, tone of voice, or even a sigh from them when responding to future spend plans could be impactful.

Pretty sure Nadella, Musk, Zuck don't want to fuck Jensen over intentionally, but these are live calls after all and markets love latching on to random nondescript b.s.
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AkhenOsiris
Good, Meta will now cut more unnecessary fat and rely on external devs for Llama!

$META

Meta Platforms is considering testing DeepSeek, the Chinese artificial intelligence models that have upended the AI industry and stock market, in its generative AI tools for advertisers, according to a Meta employee

Information - Oracle
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AkhenOsiris
What if in addition to restricting technology to China (the efficacy of which is in question) we offer their best and brightest no expiry H1Bs or even green cards?

Lure their talent. @dalibali2 , I mean the CCP, must be stopped at all costs.
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AkhenOsiris
I'll keep reposting this from time to time...is it time to just completely decouple?

Sometimes I have to remind myself that, unlike North Korea or Russia (the current favorite pariah nations), China has *significant* American business.

The way government, business, academia, etc speak about China even casually is that this nation must be stopped at all costs for the sake of humanity.

Yet they have 13,000 McDonald's, 10,000 KFCs, Apple, Coke, Nike, Starbucks, etc etc. The brands that stand for capitalism essentially.

It's pretty fucking wild. - AkhenOsiris
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Senator Markwayne Mullin just said that we need to usher in an American Iron Dome.

Iron Dome interceptors are made by Raytheon, $RTX.

We have reported on multiple Raytheon stock purchases by Mullin.

He sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Track politicians' portfolios on Quiver.
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @then_there_was: The only change I’d make is that you probably want some level of neuroticism paired with said high conscientiousness to make you aware of existential risks.

“Only the paranoid survive.”

Steve Jobs and Andy Grove are excellent examples of this.

Marc Andreessen on the 5 personality traits of an innovator

“When you’re talking about real innovators—people who actually do really creative, breakthrough work—I think you’re talking about a couple things:”

1. Very high in trait openness. “Just flat-out open to new ideas… And the nature of trait openness means you’re not just open to new ideas in one category—you’re open to many different kinds of new ideas… But of course, just being open is not sufficient because if you’re just open, you could just be curious and explore and spend your entire life reading, talking to people, but never actually create something.”

2. High level of conscientiousness. “You need somebody who’s really willing to apply themselves—typically over a period of many years to accomplish something great… For most of these people, it’s years and years of applied effort. You need somebody with an extreme willingness to basically defer gratification… Of course, this is why there aren’t many of these people—there aren’t many people who are high in openness and high in conscientiousness because to a certain extent, they’re opposed traits.”

3. High in disagreeableness. “If they’re not ornery, they’ll be talked out of their ideas… Because the reaction most people have to new ideas is ‘Oh, that’s dumb.’ So, somebody who’s too agreeable will be easily dissuaded to not pull on the thread anymore.”

4. High IQ. “They just need to be really smart because it’s hard to innovate in any category if you can’t synthesize large amounts of information quickly.”

5. Relatively low neuroticism. “If they’re too neurotic, they probably can’t handle the stress.”

Video source: @hubermanlab (2023) - Startup Archive
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