Offshore
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โ InsideArbitrage
Israel Acquisitions Corp. $ISRL and Gadfin Ltd; an Israeli technology company specializing in all-weather, long range, heavy-duty, drone delivery for essential cargo, announced the entry into a definitive business combination agreement for an equity value USD 200 million. https://t.co/oB9jZ3ARcZ
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Israel Acquisitions Corp. $ISRL and Gadfin Ltd; an Israeli technology company specializing in all-weather, long range, heavy-duty, drone delivery for essential cargo, announced the entry into a definitive business combination agreement for an equity value USD 200 million. https://t.co/oB9jZ3ARcZ
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Offshore
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โ Investing visuals
After a massive run, semiโs like $NVDA, $ASML, $AVGO are on sale today following the DeepSeek news.
Opportunity or healthy correction?๐ค https://t.co/6lj8OxIGKh
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After a massive run, semiโs like $NVDA, $ASML, $AVGO are on sale today following the DeepSeek news.
Opportunity or healthy correction?๐ค https://t.co/6lj8OxIGKh
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Offshore
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โ InsideArbitrage
QXO $QXO Launches Hostile Tender Offer to Acquire Beacon Roofing $BECN for $11 Billion in Cash -
โด๏ธQXO will commence a tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Beacon for $124.25 per share, representing a 4.92% premium from the stockโs last close.
โด๏ธQXO plans to complete the acquisition promptly after the tender offer expires in 20 business days, on February 24, 2025.
https://t.co/HXmmy0WylJ
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QXO $QXO Launches Hostile Tender Offer to Acquire Beacon Roofing $BECN for $11 Billion in Cash -
โด๏ธQXO will commence a tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Beacon for $124.25 per share, representing a 4.92% premium from the stockโs last close.
โด๏ธQXO plans to complete the acquisition promptly after the tender offer expires in 20 business days, on February 24, 2025.
https://t.co/HXmmy0WylJ
Building-Products Distributor QXO $QXO Launching Hostile Bid for Beacon $BECN - WSJ
โด๏ธQXO is preparing to take its all-cash offer to acquire Beacon Roofing Supply directly to shareholders after being rebuffed several times.
โด๏ธQXO is planning to launch a hostile bid for Beacon as soon as Monday.
โด๏ธIt will offer to buy all shares outstanding of Beacon for $124.25 per share, the same price it previously proposed. That would value Beacon at $7.7 billion, or roughly $11 billion including debt. tweet
Offshore
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โ Startup Archive
Sam Altman on the importance of momentum and why burnout doesnโt come from working too hard
โI was told, and I thought for a long time, that you get burned out from working too hard. At least in my own experience, what Iโve found is that burnout actually comes from failing and things not working.โ
Sam continues:
โMomentum is really energizing. The lack of momentum is super draining. And I find that I have infinite energy to work on things that I find interesting and that are working, and almost none to work on things that I either donโt find interesting or arenโt working.โ
He offers the following advice to startup founders:
โI think you see a lot of founders try something and fail, and they assume that they just canโt work hard enough or donโt have enough energy or passion or whatever. And thatโs actually not true. Itโs just that that thing didnโt work. And what you should do is shut that company down, go on vacation, and try again.โ
He concludes:
โWhen you look at really successful people and say, How do they get all those things done? Itโs that they have the benefit of momentum. And momentum is energizing.โ
Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
tweet
Sam Altman on the importance of momentum and why burnout doesnโt come from working too hard
โI was told, and I thought for a long time, that you get burned out from working too hard. At least in my own experience, what Iโve found is that burnout actually comes from failing and things not working.โ
Sam continues:
โMomentum is really energizing. The lack of momentum is super draining. And I find that I have infinite energy to work on things that I find interesting and that are working, and almost none to work on things that I either donโt find interesting or arenโt working.โ
He offers the following advice to startup founders:
โI think you see a lot of founders try something and fail, and they assume that they just canโt work hard enough or donโt have enough energy or passion or whatever. And thatโs actually not true. Itโs just that that thing didnโt work. And what you should do is shut that company down, go on vacation, and try again.โ
He concludes:
โWhen you look at really successful people and say, How do they get all those things done? Itโs that they have the benefit of momentum. And momentum is energizing.โ
Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
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Offshore
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โ InsideArbitrage
World Media and Entertainment Universal Inc; a subsidiary of AMTD IDEA Group $AMTD and AMTD Digital Inc. $HKD announced that it has entered into a business combination agreement with Black Spade Acquisition II Co. $BSII at an equity value of approximately USD 488 million. https://t.co/8FNUaC2I5L
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World Media and Entertainment Universal Inc; a subsidiary of AMTD IDEA Group $AMTD and AMTD Digital Inc. $HKD announced that it has entered into a business combination agreement with Black Spade Acquisition II Co. $BSII at an equity value of approximately USD 488 million. https://t.co/8FNUaC2I5L
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Platinium AM on Zoetis $ZTS US
Thesis: Zoetis is the leading global innovator in animal medicine, with strong growth and promising new treatments for Osteoarthritis in pets, despite concerns over pricing and regulatory adjustments.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/t6QKmg9skc
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Platinium AM on Zoetis $ZTS US
Thesis: Zoetis is the leading global innovator in animal medicine, with strong growth and promising new treatments for Osteoarthritis in pets, despite concerns over pricing and regulatory adjustments.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/t6QKmg9skc
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Offshore
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โ Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi sold $1.3M of Nvidia stock last month.
$NVDA has fallen 17% today. https://t.co/W60hk8R8FT
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Nancy Pelosi sold $1.3M of Nvidia stock last month.
$NVDA has fallen 17% today. https://t.co/W60hk8R8FT
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
2 weeks ago I stated: โI am more inclined to buy $NVDA closer to $120๐ต where I could reasonably expect ~12% CAGR assuming a 27x end multiple, ensuring a decent margin of safetyโ
Now that $NVDA stock traded down to my target price, Iโll share an updated analysis tomorrow ๐ https://t.co/mTGHSkUvwD
A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 33.80x
โข1-Year Mean: 37.21x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.67%
โข1-Year Mean: 2.39%
As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading somewhere near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~10% MORE in earnings per share & ~11% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
โขLong-Term Debt: $8.46B
$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 19.1%
โข2021: 19.1%
โข2022: 26.0%
โข2023: 16.2%
โข2024: 60.5%
โขLTM: 92.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 26.0%
โข2021: 29.8%
โข2022: 44.8%
โข2023: 17.9%
โข2024: 91.5%
โขLTM: 127.2%
$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2020: $16.68B
โข2025E: $129.14B
โขCAGR: 63.89%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2020: $4.27B
โข2025E: $64.54B
โขCAGR: 72.13%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2020: $0.14
โข2025E: $2.95
โขCAGR: 83.96%
SHARE BUYBACKS๐ (nominal change)
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~10% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 16.90% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (16.90%) required growth rate:
2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $4.45 (50.5% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.1% YoY)
$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $178.88๐ต โฆ ~15.5% CAGR
31x P/E: $173.29๐ต โฆ ~13.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $167.70๐ต โฆ ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $162.11๐ต โฆ ~10.1% CAGR
28x P/E: $156.52๐ต โฆ ~8.2% CAGR
As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >30x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple thatโs justified given the companyโs growth rate & moat
$NVDA is a fair consideration today at $133๐ต
I am more inclined to buy $NVDA closer to $120๐ต where I could reasonably expect ~12% CAGR assuming a 27x end multiple, ensuring a decent margin of safety
What stands out to me is $NVDA consistent ability to exceed ambitious expectations, not just meeting but significantly beating estimates. This impressive performance has justified its previously demanding valuation, with the company effectively growing into its premium valuation ๐๐ฝ
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๏ฟฝ[...]
2 weeks ago I stated: โI am more inclined to buy $NVDA closer to $120๐ต where I could reasonably expect ~12% CAGR assuming a 27x end multiple, ensuring a decent margin of safetyโ
Now that $NVDA stock traded down to my target price, Iโll share an updated analysis tomorrow ๐ https://t.co/mTGHSkUvwD
A quality valuation analysis on $NVDA ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 33.80x
โข1-Year Mean: 37.21x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.67%
โข1-Year Mean: 2.39%
As you can see, $NVDA appears to be trading somewhere near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~10% MORE in earnings per share & ~11% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $NVDA is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $38.49B
โขLong-Term Debt: $8.46B
$NVDA has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 236x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 19.1%
โข2021: 19.1%
โข2022: 26.0%
โข2023: 16.2%
โข2024: 60.5%
โขLTM: 92.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 26.0%
โข2021: 29.8%
โข2022: 44.8%
โข2023: 17.9%
โข2024: 91.5%
โขLTM: 127.2%
$NVDA has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2020: $16.68B
โข2025E: $129.14B
โขCAGR: 63.89%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2020: $4.27B
โข2025E: $64.54B
โขCAGR: 72.13%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2020: $0.14
โข2025E: $2.95
โขCAGR: 83.96%
SHARE BUYBACKS๐ (nominal change)
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 25.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 24.86B
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 75.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 62.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 55.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~10% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $NVDA has to grow earnings at a 16.90% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (16.90%) required growth rate:
2025E: $2.95 (127.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $4.45 (50.5% YoY)
2027E: $5.61 (26.1% YoY)
$NVDA has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $NVDA ends 2027 with $5.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $178.88๐ต โฆ ~15.5% CAGR
31x P/E: $173.29๐ต โฆ ~13.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $167.70๐ต โฆ ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $162.11๐ต โฆ ~10.1% CAGR
28x P/E: $156.52๐ต โฆ ~8.2% CAGR
As you can see, $NVDA appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >30x earnings, a multiple generally below its historical averages & a multiple thatโs justified given the companyโs growth rate & moat
$NVDA is a fair consideration today at $133๐ต
I am more inclined to buy $NVDA closer to $120๐ต where I could reasonably expect ~12% CAGR assuming a 27x end multiple, ensuring a decent margin of safety
What stands out to me is $NVDA consistent ability to exceed ambitious expectations, not just meeting but significantly beating estimates. This impressive performance has justified its previously demanding valuation, with the company effectively growing into its premium valuation ๐๐ฝ
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๏ฟฝ[...]