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Stock Analysis Compilation
Nightview Capital on Qualcomm $QCOM US

Thesis: Qualcomm's pivot to Automotive, IoT, and AI positions it for significant long-term growth beyond handsets

(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/INo4c7ubff
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Startup Archive
RT @smithlife_: Growth is the result of solving these 3 challenges with precision.

1. Getting people in the door.
2. Delivering an 'aha' moment fast.
3. Providing core product value consistently.

Chamath Palihapitiya on the growth principles that got Facebook to billions of users

“The most important thing we did was I teased out virality, and said, ‘You cannot do it. Don’t talk about it. Don’t touch it. I don’t want you to give me any product plans that revolve around this idea of virality. I don’t want to hear it.”

Instead, Chamath urged the growth team at Facebook to focus on “the three most difficult and hard problems that any consumer product has to deal with”:

1. How do you get people in the front door?
2. How do you get them to an aha moment as quickly as possible?
3. How do you deliver core product value as often as possible?

Chamath warns that focusing on virality is why you see so many startups experience this amazingly steep rise and then fall off a cliff.

The second thing he set out to do at Facebook was invalidate all of the lore:

“In any given product, there’s always people who strut out around the office like, ‘I have this gut feeling.’ It’s all about gut feeling. And most people’s gut feelings are morons. They don’t know what they’re talking about. Gut feel is not useful because most people can’t predict correctly. We know this. So one of the most important things that we did was just invalidate all of the lore… You can’t believe your own BS. Because when you do, you start to compound these massively structural mistakes that don’t expose core product value… You don’t listen to customers because you think it’s all about your gut. You don’t bother doing any of the traditional, straightforward, obvious things, and you lose yourself.”

As Chamath explains, a maniacal focus on delivering core product value as frequently and fast as possible is what led Facebook to its most important realization:

“The single biggest thing we realized was to get any individual to 7 friends in 10 days. That was it… There was not much more complexity than that. There’s an entire team now of hundreds of people that have helped ramp this product to a billion users, based on that one simple rule — a very elegant statement of what it was to capture core product value… And then what we did at the company was talk about nothing else. Every Q&A. Every all-hands… It was the single, sole focus.”

He continues:

“You have to work backwards from: What is the thing that people are here to do? What is the ‘aha moment’ that they want? Why can I not give that to them as fast as possible? That’s how you win.”

Chamath recommends starting with a cohort of your most engaged users — What features are they using? What pathways in your product did they take? Then work backwards and try to get all of your other users to that same state.
- Startup Archive
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Senator Cynthia Lummis has been named the chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets.

We saw Lummis buy up to $100K of Bitcoin, $BTC, back in 2021.

She appears to have placed it into a blind trust in 2022.

You can track her portfolio on Quiver.
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InsideArbitrage
The acquisition of Universal Stainless & Alloy Products $USAP by Aperam was completed on January 23, 2025. It took 98 days for the deal to be completed. https://t.co/pBkRO76Y4d
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Thomas Kean Jr. just disclosed a purchase of Canadian Pacific stock, $CP.

Canadian Pacific is a freight railway company.

It's the first time we've seen a politician buy the stock since 2014.

Kean Jr. sat on the House subcommittee on railroads. https://t.co/5lL7R6MxU6
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Startup Archive
Ben Horowitz on the two things every successful technology startup must do

1. Build a product that improves how some large group of people does something by 10x. “You have to build a transformational product. There is no way to build a great new company without a great product… If you look at the great technology companies, the thing that distinguishes them is the ability to keep coming up with a better way of doing things.”

2. Taking the market. “You can come up with the best product, but if you don’t [take the market], you really don’t have a company. Most technology businesses are network effects businesses. You have to win… If you’re an engineer, what business skills do you need to build a technology company? They’re all around the skills that you need to win the market. How do you out-market, out-sell, and beat the competition?… Do you build a good enough company that you go win?”

Video source: @UCBerkeley (2009)
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RT @ArthurMacwaters: It's not enough to improve something 1-2x.

You have to improve that thing 10x plus. If you're not obsessed with this, you will likely fail.

In healthcare, it's super obvious. Make it cheaper, make it more intuitive/streamlined, and make it hyper-personal.

Ben Horowitz on the two things every successful technology startup must do

1. Build a product that improves how some large group of people does something by 10x. “You have to build a transformational product. There is no way to build a great new company without a great product… If you look at the great technology companies, the thing that distinguishes them is the ability to keep coming up with a better way of doing things.”

2. Taking the market. “You can come up with the best product, but if you don’t [take the market], you really don’t have a company. Most technology businesses are network effects businesses. You have to win… If you’re an engineer, what business skills do you need to build a technology company? They’re all around the skills that you need to win the market. How do you out-market, out-sell, and beat the competition?… Do you build a good enough company that you go win?”

Video source: @UCBerkeley (2009)
- Startup Archive
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Quiver Quantitative
Wow.

We posted this report earlier this month.

$GE has now risen 18% since Senator Capito's purchase.

Up another 6% today, after releasing quarterly earnings. https://t.co/Afm7VVa3Jq
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Quiver Quantitative
Seeing many claims that the DOGE Clock on the US Debt Clock is tracking live savings.

It's not.

It's tracking the "real-time savings objective".

So it's presumably a pre-set counter that will count up to the savings goal over the course of the year.

Might work on writing code to track spending under the Trump vs. Biden, adjusting for inflation, to provide a more accurate savings metric - if there is interest.
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