AkhenOsiris
One year ago Databricks @alighodsi predicted a decrease in AI chip prices and a rebalance of supply and demand within the next year.
Fast forward to today, during an interview with @dee_bosa, Ghodsi highlighted Oracle's importance for helping alleviate the continuing GPU scarcity.
I'll stick with conservative TSMC CEO Wei's views for ongoing AI trajectory.
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One year ago Databricks @alighodsi predicted a decrease in AI chip prices and a rebalance of supply and demand within the next year.
Fast forward to today, during an interview with @dee_bosa, Ghodsi highlighted Oracle's importance for helping alleviate the continuing GPU scarcity.
I'll stick with conservative TSMC CEO Wei's views for ongoing AI trajectory.
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AkhenOsiris
BKNG 13% off the high. Travel still robust.
BKNG nowadays a mature EPS and Rev grower, fwd PE at market multiple (low 20s).
AI risks to how travel will be booked may be a part of this, take rates going forward, etc.
HLT, MAR, UAL, DAL are all near their highs.
ABNB well off summer 2024 highs with its own challenges, while EXPE has fared better than BKNG of late.
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BKNG 13% off the high. Travel still robust.
BKNG nowadays a mature EPS and Rev grower, fwd PE at market multiple (low 20s).
AI risks to how travel will be booked may be a part of this, take rates going forward, etc.
HLT, MAR, UAL, DAL are all near their highs.
ABNB well off summer 2024 highs with its own challenges, while EXPE has fared better than BKNG of late.
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
RT @trader_53: Wedbush's Ives raises the target price of $TSLA by essentially issuing the same report as in December
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RT @trader_53: Wedbush's Ives raises the target price of $TSLA by essentially issuing the same report as in December
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: GEO Group, $GEO, has disclosed $350,000 of new lobbying.
GEO Group is a private prison company.
Some of the issues they lobbied on include "immigration enforcement" and "ICE".
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RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: GEO Group, $GEO, has disclosed $350,000 of new lobbying.
GEO Group is a private prison company.
Some of the issues they lobbied on include "immigration enforcement" and "ICE".
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Remember how many accounts were calling $CELH a steal & an excellent opportunity most of last year?
$CELH is down -52% in the past year & -73% from its highs 📉
After its large drop, now you rarely see $CELH posts with the same frequency
I wonder why that is 🤷🏽♂️ https://t.co/FeeQrAOGcU
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Remember how many accounts were calling $CELH a steal & an excellent opportunity most of last year?
$CELH is down -52% in the past year & -73% from its highs 📉
After its large drop, now you rarely see $CELH posts with the same frequency
I wonder why that is 🤷🏽♂️ https://t.co/FeeQrAOGcU
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: The House just passed the Laken Riley Act, introduced by @SenKatieBritt.
It will be the first bill that President Trump signs into law this term. https://t.co/s9v30wpGSR
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RT @QuiverCongress: The House just passed the Laken Riley Act, introduced by @SenKatieBritt.
It will be the first bill that President Trump signs into law this term. https://t.co/s9v30wpGSR
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New Insider Purchase
A director of $ARDX, a biotech company, has just reported purchasing $1M of the company's stock.
This is the 3rd insider purchase we have seen him report in the last two months, each for $1M.
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RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New Insider Purchase
A director of $ARDX, a biotech company, has just reported purchasing $1M of the company's stock.
This is the 3rd insider purchase we have seen him report in the last two months, each for $1M.
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Quiver Quantitative
We’ve received data on the stock portfolios of many of Trump’s cabinet nominees.
Almost half of them have significant crypto holdings.
Here’s a breakdown:
Sean Duffy (Transportation) has up to $1.1M in Bitcoin, $BTC.
RFK Jr. (HHS) has up to $5M in Bitcoin.
Tulsi Gabbard (DNI) has up to $50K in Bitcoin, $15K in Ethereum, $15K in Cronos, and $15K in $SOL.
Scott Bessent (Treasury) has up to $500K in iShares Bitcoin Trust, $IBIT.
Pete Hegseth (Defense) has up to $50K in Bitcoin.
Russell Vought (OMB) has up to $15K in Bitcoin.
I’ll keep you updated, as we receive more data on nominees’ portfolios.
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We’ve received data on the stock portfolios of many of Trump’s cabinet nominees.
Almost half of them have significant crypto holdings.
Here’s a breakdown:
Sean Duffy (Transportation) has up to $1.1M in Bitcoin, $BTC.
RFK Jr. (HHS) has up to $5M in Bitcoin.
Tulsi Gabbard (DNI) has up to $50K in Bitcoin, $15K in Ethereum, $15K in Cronos, and $15K in $SOL.
Scott Bessent (Treasury) has up to $500K in iShares Bitcoin Trust, $IBIT.
Pete Hegseth (Defense) has up to $50K in Bitcoin.
Russell Vought (OMB) has up to $15K in Bitcoin.
I’ll keep you updated, as we receive more data on nominees’ portfolios.
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Offshore
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InsideArbitrage
RT @AsifSuria: This recent surge in Netflix's $NFLX towards a price of $1,000 per share reminded me of a little thought exercise I went through with a friend in late 2021 and once again a few weeks ago when he reached out to me.
His wife works at Netflix and like all employees, has a unique perk that allows her to invest part or all of her salary in Netflix options at 40% of the price of Netflix stock at the start of each month.
Yes you read that right, all of her salary!
The rest of this post is a thought exercise and not investment advice or even a suggestion on how much of their salary Netflix employees should allocate to this perk.
Paying 40% for options might sound very expensive but the kicker here is that these options expire after 10 years.
In other words, if Netflix stock is up more than 40% of current price 10 years from now, you made a good decision. But not so fast young padawan.
That money invested has to be adjusted for the fact that $100 in 2035 is not going to be worth the same as $100 now.
For example according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, you needed $134.41 in December 2024 to buy the same goods you could have purchased for $100 in December 2014.
The calculation above simply used the official rate of inflation to figure out how much the value of the dollar eroded over the last 10 years.
Considering buying options on Netflix is a significantly more risky bet than say investing in U.S. treasury bonds, instead of using the rate of inflation, you would be better served by using a "hurdle" rate that reflects your expected return from a risky investment.
Let us assume this hurdle rate is 15%. Folks can adjust this hurdle rate as they see fit.
Netflix stock closed trading on December 31, 2024 at $891.32. The 10 year options at 40% of the stock price would have cost $356.48.
Applying a 15% hurdle rate, Netflix stock would have to trade at $2,333.48 per share and a market cap of $1.02 trillion.
Netflix repurchased a little over 3% of its shares outstanding over the last four years. If they accelerate this some more and eventually retire 10% of shares outstanding (after dilution) in 10 years, the market cap will be close to $920 billion.
With several companies including $AAPL, $NVDA and $META trading with market caps well above $1 trillion right now, this expected rise in Netflix stock is not out of the realm of possibilities.
Can a media/entertainment company achieve such a lofty valuation? If a car (robotaxi?) company like $TSLA can achieve a valuation of over $1.35 trillion, why not, say some market participants.
If we were for a minute to subscribe to the theory that we are near the top of a stock bubble, then what does a rational tool like a DCF model tell us about Netflix's valuation 10 years from now?
A very simple reverse DCF model with a 10% discount rate and a 2% terminal growth rate tells us that Netflix will need to grow its earnings at or over 40% for the next three years and then continuing growing double digits the following seven years.
Considering Netflix grew earnings 65% in 2024, this is not entirely pie in the sky but is very optimistic.
Life is not linear and companies experience both a period of expansion and contraction. You can also see this with Netflix where after years of amazing earnings growth, earnings declined in 2022 and then growth was moderate in 2023, when earnings grew 21%.
This is one of the reasons I scaled back part of my personal position in Netflix when the stock was trading around $927 last month.
I still believe the future will be bright for Netflix but I am less excited about the stock now than I was when I first started a position a few years ago.
Fortunately for Netflix employees, th[...]
RT @AsifSuria: This recent surge in Netflix's $NFLX towards a price of $1,000 per share reminded me of a little thought exercise I went through with a friend in late 2021 and once again a few weeks ago when he reached out to me.
His wife works at Netflix and like all employees, has a unique perk that allows her to invest part or all of her salary in Netflix options at 40% of the price of Netflix stock at the start of each month.
Yes you read that right, all of her salary!
The rest of this post is a thought exercise and not investment advice or even a suggestion on how much of their salary Netflix employees should allocate to this perk.
Paying 40% for options might sound very expensive but the kicker here is that these options expire after 10 years.
In other words, if Netflix stock is up more than 40% of current price 10 years from now, you made a good decision. But not so fast young padawan.
That money invested has to be adjusted for the fact that $100 in 2035 is not going to be worth the same as $100 now.
For example according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, you needed $134.41 in December 2024 to buy the same goods you could have purchased for $100 in December 2014.
The calculation above simply used the official rate of inflation to figure out how much the value of the dollar eroded over the last 10 years.
Considering buying options on Netflix is a significantly more risky bet than say investing in U.S. treasury bonds, instead of using the rate of inflation, you would be better served by using a "hurdle" rate that reflects your expected return from a risky investment.
Let us assume this hurdle rate is 15%. Folks can adjust this hurdle rate as they see fit.
Netflix stock closed trading on December 31, 2024 at $891.32. The 10 year options at 40% of the stock price would have cost $356.48.
Applying a 15% hurdle rate, Netflix stock would have to trade at $2,333.48 per share and a market cap of $1.02 trillion.
Netflix repurchased a little over 3% of its shares outstanding over the last four years. If they accelerate this some more and eventually retire 10% of shares outstanding (after dilution) in 10 years, the market cap will be close to $920 billion.
With several companies including $AAPL, $NVDA and $META trading with market caps well above $1 trillion right now, this expected rise in Netflix stock is not out of the realm of possibilities.
Can a media/entertainment company achieve such a lofty valuation? If a car (robotaxi?) company like $TSLA can achieve a valuation of over $1.35 trillion, why not, say some market participants.
If we were for a minute to subscribe to the theory that we are near the top of a stock bubble, then what does a rational tool like a DCF model tell us about Netflix's valuation 10 years from now?
A very simple reverse DCF model with a 10% discount rate and a 2% terminal growth rate tells us that Netflix will need to grow its earnings at or over 40% for the next three years and then continuing growing double digits the following seven years.
Considering Netflix grew earnings 65% in 2024, this is not entirely pie in the sky but is very optimistic.
Life is not linear and companies experience both a period of expansion and contraction. You can also see this with Netflix where after years of amazing earnings growth, earnings declined in 2022 and then growth was moderate in 2023, when earnings grew 21%.
This is one of the reasons I scaled back part of my personal position in Netflix when the stock was trading around $927 last month.
I still believe the future will be bright for Netflix but I am less excited about the stock now than I was when I first started a position a few years ago.
Fortunately for Netflix employees, th[...]