AkhenOsiris
Adweek: Agencies Are Spending More on TikTok Ads This Year Despite US Ban Uncertainty
One agency executive, speaking anonymously to protect industry relations, plans to increase the agency’s TikTok spend by 20%–30% this year. DigiShopGirl Media will increase spend by between 15%–18% over the year, according to CEO Katya Constantine. At VML, clients are boosting their yearly influencer budgets on TikTok by 30-50%. Some brands are committing for the entire year, while others are focusing on the first half of the year or maintaining a steady stream of ad-hoc campaigns throughout, according to Mae Karwowski, CEO of Obviously, VML’s influencer marketing agency.
U.S. ad spend on TikTok is projected to surge 57% YoY in the first two months of 2025, according to ad data firm Guideline, based on forward booking data from agency partners for upcoming campaigns. And TikTok has been growing: Since 2020, TikTok has posted an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 118%, rising from 2% to 20% of total U.S. social ad spend, per Guideline.
“TikTok is still pushing agencies and brands to commit to increased YoY spend through up-front deals, and they are still selling up-front media placements well into 2025,” the first agency executive said. “TikTok has confirmed in writing, although not in contracts, that they will honor refunds for reserved inventory if the app is shut down.”
The first agency, which established its contingency plan in November last year and plans to implement it by the end of January, is advising brands to reinvest 80% of their TikTok ad budget, spanning performance, ecommerce, and brand marketing, to other channels.
For commerce-focused brands, this reserved budget may shift to platforms like Amazon and Pinterest Shopping. Full-funnel marketing dollars are likely to flow to OTT streaming platforms like Hulu and ESPN under Disney’s portfolio, while performance ad dollars will shift toward Instagram Reels.
Already, 5% of the agency’s clients have begun redirecting budgets away from TikTok since last year.
At DigiShopGirl, the contingency plan involves reallocating 90% of TikTok’s performance ad dollars to Reels, YouTube Shorts, and, to a lesser extent, Snapchat, particularly for brands targeting U.S.-based consumers.
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Adweek: Agencies Are Spending More on TikTok Ads This Year Despite US Ban Uncertainty
One agency executive, speaking anonymously to protect industry relations, plans to increase the agency’s TikTok spend by 20%–30% this year. DigiShopGirl Media will increase spend by between 15%–18% over the year, according to CEO Katya Constantine. At VML, clients are boosting their yearly influencer budgets on TikTok by 30-50%. Some brands are committing for the entire year, while others are focusing on the first half of the year or maintaining a steady stream of ad-hoc campaigns throughout, according to Mae Karwowski, CEO of Obviously, VML’s influencer marketing agency.
U.S. ad spend on TikTok is projected to surge 57% YoY in the first two months of 2025, according to ad data firm Guideline, based on forward booking data from agency partners for upcoming campaigns. And TikTok has been growing: Since 2020, TikTok has posted an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 118%, rising from 2% to 20% of total U.S. social ad spend, per Guideline.
“TikTok is still pushing agencies and brands to commit to increased YoY spend through up-front deals, and they are still selling up-front media placements well into 2025,” the first agency executive said. “TikTok has confirmed in writing, although not in contracts, that they will honor refunds for reserved inventory if the app is shut down.”
The first agency, which established its contingency plan in November last year and plans to implement it by the end of January, is advising brands to reinvest 80% of their TikTok ad budget, spanning performance, ecommerce, and brand marketing, to other channels.
For commerce-focused brands, this reserved budget may shift to platforms like Amazon and Pinterest Shopping. Full-funnel marketing dollars are likely to flow to OTT streaming platforms like Hulu and ESPN under Disney’s portfolio, while performance ad dollars will shift toward Instagram Reels.
Already, 5% of the agency’s clients have begun redirecting budgets away from TikTok since last year.
At DigiShopGirl, the contingency plan involves reallocating 90% of TikTok’s performance ad dollars to Reels, YouTube Shorts, and, to a lesser extent, Snapchat, particularly for brands targeting U.S.-based consumers.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @RadnorCapital: Caught up with Sport Radar $SRAD this morning. Thesis intact. It doesn't appear that declining NBA viewership is having any negative impact on the business and they continue to be very happy with the contract and opportunity to provide more solutions to leagues and sportsbooks (4sight streaming, alpha odds, etc.). I could also make the argument that declining viewership incentivizes leagues to invest more in fan engagement, which is a core mission / competency of Sport Radar.
Interesting how the narrative around NBA vs. MLB has shifted over the last couple of years. I'd imagine they continue to ebb and flow.
I'd also note that the NBA is one of many leagues Sport Radar does business with globally. Sport Radar $SRAD reported this morning, and the stock is up ~10%. They are the leading provider of data and analytics to the sports ecosystem (most importantly sports betting books). Think of it as a “picks and shovels” play on the growth of online sports betting / fan engagement globally.
I’ve been long this stock for a couple of years, and it has done nothing – my blended cost is just under $10 (stock currently ~$10.45). You would have been better off putting your money in the S&P 500 and forgetting about it (I recommend this to young investors with time on their side). Also, important to note that being early is often indistinguishable from being wrong. So do your own work.
So why has the stock of a rule of 40 (revenue growth rate + profit margin > 40%) company trading <10x60% of the company is owned by insiders: Canada Pension Plan, Tehcnology Crossover, and Radcliff. If you’re a PM, its just easier to express a bullish view on sports / betting by owning Draft Kings (again, I like them both). Sport Radar is a more complicated story, with a much lower float, and it hasn’t gone anywhere in a couple of years (no bid) – so why bother?
My best guess (again, I’ve been wrong) is that sentiment around this stock mimics what Draft Kings was a couple years ago – people thought Draft Kings was a decent business but would never be a good stock because they would never get leverage on their massive customer acquisition costs. Draft Kings is up ~4x since that narrative was popular.
Bull case math for Sport Radar suggests 2026 revenue could be ~$1.5-1.6bn (vs. street ~$1.3-1.4bn) and almost $400mm EBITDA (vs. street ~$300mm). I get there using a ~20% revenue CAGR (which we have visibility into given the contracted nature of their business) and a ~25% EBITDA margin (low end of their 25-30% long term target). So even if we don’t get multiple expansion (which I find hard to believe, given the upside to numbers), the stock should theoretically compound with earnings growth >20%.
A few other thoughts from the call…
Revenue grew +28% y/y and EBITDA +29% y/y in Q1, despite elevated sports rights costs. US revenue grew +65% (~25% of total) and rest of world +19% (~75% of total). Raised full year guidance (although by less than the beat, but this is conservatism – the current CFO wants the new CFO to have a low bar when he starts in June). Also $5-6mm of project costs moved from Q1 to rest of the year. As confident as ever with operational structure and margin trajectory. NRR (net retention rate – basically the growth from existing customers minus churn) accelerated to 116%, from 111% in Q4 2023. Announced intention to commence share repurchases under $200mm authorization in the next trading window – they agree that their stock is undervalued. Strong balance sheet with ~$275mm net cash and generating substantial free cash flow. Excited about Alpha Odds product – new AI-driven odds technology that has helped operators boost profits, most notably by an average of ~15% during this years UEFA championship qualifiers. Alpha Odds is currently live in soccer, but they plan to launch soon with tennis and basketball, before adding 3 more [...]
RT @RadnorCapital: Caught up with Sport Radar $SRAD this morning. Thesis intact. It doesn't appear that declining NBA viewership is having any negative impact on the business and they continue to be very happy with the contract and opportunity to provide more solutions to leagues and sportsbooks (4sight streaming, alpha odds, etc.). I could also make the argument that declining viewership incentivizes leagues to invest more in fan engagement, which is a core mission / competency of Sport Radar.
Interesting how the narrative around NBA vs. MLB has shifted over the last couple of years. I'd imagine they continue to ebb and flow.
I'd also note that the NBA is one of many leagues Sport Radar does business with globally. Sport Radar $SRAD reported this morning, and the stock is up ~10%. They are the leading provider of data and analytics to the sports ecosystem (most importantly sports betting books). Think of it as a “picks and shovels” play on the growth of online sports betting / fan engagement globally.
I’ve been long this stock for a couple of years, and it has done nothing – my blended cost is just under $10 (stock currently ~$10.45). You would have been better off putting your money in the S&P 500 and forgetting about it (I recommend this to young investors with time on their side). Also, important to note that being early is often indistinguishable from being wrong. So do your own work.
So why has the stock of a rule of 40 (revenue growth rate + profit margin > 40%) company trading <10x60% of the company is owned by insiders: Canada Pension Plan, Tehcnology Crossover, and Radcliff. If you’re a PM, its just easier to express a bullish view on sports / betting by owning Draft Kings (again, I like them both). Sport Radar is a more complicated story, with a much lower float, and it hasn’t gone anywhere in a couple of years (no bid) – so why bother?
My best guess (again, I’ve been wrong) is that sentiment around this stock mimics what Draft Kings was a couple years ago – people thought Draft Kings was a decent business but would never be a good stock because they would never get leverage on their massive customer acquisition costs. Draft Kings is up ~4x since that narrative was popular.
Bull case math for Sport Radar suggests 2026 revenue could be ~$1.5-1.6bn (vs. street ~$1.3-1.4bn) and almost $400mm EBITDA (vs. street ~$300mm). I get there using a ~20% revenue CAGR (which we have visibility into given the contracted nature of their business) and a ~25% EBITDA margin (low end of their 25-30% long term target). So even if we don’t get multiple expansion (which I find hard to believe, given the upside to numbers), the stock should theoretically compound with earnings growth >20%.
A few other thoughts from the call…
Revenue grew +28% y/y and EBITDA +29% y/y in Q1, despite elevated sports rights costs. US revenue grew +65% (~25% of total) and rest of world +19% (~75% of total). Raised full year guidance (although by less than the beat, but this is conservatism – the current CFO wants the new CFO to have a low bar when he starts in June). Also $5-6mm of project costs moved from Q1 to rest of the year. As confident as ever with operational structure and margin trajectory. NRR (net retention rate – basically the growth from existing customers minus churn) accelerated to 116%, from 111% in Q4 2023. Announced intention to commence share repurchases under $200mm authorization in the next trading window – they agree that their stock is undervalued. Strong balance sheet with ~$275mm net cash and generating substantial free cash flow. Excited about Alpha Odds product – new AI-driven odds technology that has helped operators boost profits, most notably by an average of ~15% during this years UEFA championship qualifiers. Alpha Odds is currently live in soccer, but they plan to launch soon with tennis and basketball, before adding 3 more [...]
Offshore
AkhenOsiris RT @RadnorCapital: Caught up with Sport Radar $SRAD this morning. Thesis intact. It doesn't appear that declining NBA viewership is having any negative impact on the business and they continue to be very happy with the contract and opportunity…
sports by Q1 2025. Announced Chief AI Officer, Behshad Behzadi, who previously helped spearhead AI initiatives at Google $GOOGL. Brazil legalized sports betting last December and sports book licenses will be awarded this summer – this will be a large sports betting market (think ~$5-6bn GGR in next few years). Asia opportunity in India and Japan. African countries like Nigeria, South Africa, and Ghana. Confident in MLB partnership and should continue to have 3 of the 4 major US sports leagues under their umbrella (Genius has the NFL). NBA contract is off to a great start – a lot left to unlock with the NBA. Advertising continues to be an opportunity – programmatic and paid social – ranks as one of top global advertisers in online betting and casino space. Ads is just one of the many ways to profitably leverage their massive datasets for the benefit of customers.
Anyone looking to ramp on this name should chat with Ryan Sigdahl at Craig Hallum. He’s the best on the street and a class act. - Radnor Capital tweet
Anyone looking to ramp on this name should chat with Ryan Sigdahl at Craig Hallum. He’s the best on the street and a class act. - Radnor Capital tweet
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AkhenOsiris
RT @SaaSletter: 👀 Quick excerpts from MS Thematics “Uncovering Alpha in AI's Rate of Change” (64 pages)
- notable + growing importance of AI to Financial Sector
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RT @SaaSletter: 👀 Quick excerpts from MS Thematics “Uncovering Alpha in AI's Rate of Change” (64 pages)
- notable + growing importance of AI to Financial Sector
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Arquitos CM on Liquidia $LQDA US
Thesis: Liquidia is poised to capture at least 50% market share due to its more tolerable drug and patented manufacturing process, significantly increasing its profit potential.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/VgcF05IK4Y
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Arquitos CM on Liquidia $LQDA US
Thesis: Liquidia is poised to capture at least 50% market share due to its more tolerable drug and patented manufacturing process, significantly increasing its profit potential.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/VgcF05IK4Y
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: We just received text from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene's "Gulf of America" bill.
See below: https://t.co/eM1YCj4v1U
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RT @QuiverCongress: We just received text from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene's "Gulf of America" bill.
See below: https://t.co/eM1YCj4v1U
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Evaluating a company solely by its return on invested capital isn’t sufficient.
The best companies to invest in are those operating in markets that are expanding.
This is crucial because growth opportunities amplify the advantages of high returns on invested capital.
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Evaluating a company solely by its return on invested capital isn’t sufficient.
The best companies to invest in are those operating in markets that are expanding.
This is crucial because growth opportunities amplify the advantages of high returns on invested capital.
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Hidden Value Gems
Some stock commentary from Terry Smith's 2025 Letter 🧵👇
New positions: $ATLKY $TXN
Sold: $DGE.L $MKC $AAPL
"Atlas Copco is a Swedish industrial company which makes compressors, vacuum equipment, electrical and pneumatic tools and which has three characteristics which we find attractive:
➡️it outsources much of the manufacturing so making it capital light which enhances returns;
➡️it is highly decentralised with over 600 operating entities which have considerable autonomy in addressing their local market; and
➡️there is a controlling stake held by the Wallenberg family vehicle which should lead to good long-term decision-making since they have been in business for 151 years this year."
1/9
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Some stock commentary from Terry Smith's 2025 Letter 🧵👇
New positions: $ATLKY $TXN
Sold: $DGE.L $MKC $AAPL
"Atlas Copco is a Swedish industrial company which makes compressors, vacuum equipment, electrical and pneumatic tools and which has three characteristics which we find attractive:
➡️it outsources much of the manufacturing so making it capital light which enhances returns;
➡️it is highly decentralised with over 600 operating entities which have considerable autonomy in addressing their local market; and
➡️there is a controlling stake held by the Wallenberg family vehicle which should lead to good long-term decision-making since they have been in business for 151 years this year."
1/9
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Bell AM on GMO Payment Gateway $4689 JP
Thesis: GMO Payment Gateway is a promising investment opportunity due to its strong growth history and favorable market conditions for cashless payments in Japan.
(Extract from their November letter) https://t.co/VtHkqQxuRd
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Bell AM on GMO Payment Gateway $4689 JP
Thesis: GMO Payment Gateway is a promising investment opportunity due to its strong growth history and favorable market conditions for cashless payments in Japan.
(Extract from their November letter) https://t.co/VtHkqQxuRd
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