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Stock Analysis Compilation
Riverwater Partners on Aehr Test Systems $AEHR US
Thesis: Aehr Test Systems revolutionizes semiconductor reliability with burn-in technology, driving growth through EV and AI advancements
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/UVpntes9c5
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Riverwater Partners on Aehr Test Systems $AEHR US
Thesis: Aehr Test Systems revolutionizes semiconductor reliability with burn-in technology, driving growth through EV and AI advancements
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/UVpntes9c5
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Startup Archive
Marc Andreessen on hiring for drive:
"If a candidate has just followed the rules their whole lives, showed up for the right classes and the right tests and the right career opportunities without achieving something distinct and notable, relative to their starting point—then they probably aren’t driven.
And you’re not going to change them.
Motivating people who are fundamentally unmotivated is not easy.
But motivating people who are self-motivated is wind at your back."
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Marc Andreessen on hiring for drive:
"If a candidate has just followed the rules their whole lives, showed up for the right classes and the right tests and the right career opportunities without achieving something distinct and notable, relative to their starting point—then they probably aren’t driven.
And you’re not going to change them.
Motivating people who are fundamentally unmotivated is not easy.
But motivating people who are self-motivated is wind at your back."
Hire for Drive by @pmarca https://t.co/J4GnBmfAZM tweet
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Mark Zuckerberg on the best advice Peter Thiel ever gave him
“Peter was the person who told me this really pithy quote that, ‘In a world that’s changing so quickly, the biggest risk you can take is not taking any risk.’ And I really think that that is true.”
Mark continues:
“Whenever you get yourself into a position where you have to make some big shift in direction or do something, there are always people who are going to point to the downside risks of that decision — and locally they may be right. For any given decision you make, there’s upside and downside. But in aggregate, if you are stagnant and you don’t make those changes, then I think you’re guaranteed to fail and not catch up. So to some degree, I think it’s really right that, over time, the biggest risk you can take is to not take any risks.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
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Mark Zuckerberg on the best advice Peter Thiel ever gave him
“Peter was the person who told me this really pithy quote that, ‘In a world that’s changing so quickly, the biggest risk you can take is not taking any risk.’ And I really think that that is true.”
Mark continues:
“Whenever you get yourself into a position where you have to make some big shift in direction or do something, there are always people who are going to point to the downside risks of that decision — and locally they may be right. For any given decision you make, there’s upside and downside. But in aggregate, if you are stagnant and you don’t make those changes, then I think you’re guaranteed to fail and not catch up. So to some degree, I think it’s really right that, over time, the biggest risk you can take is to not take any risks.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Rewey AM on Kyndryl Holdings, $KD US
Thesis: Kyndryl’s aggressive transformation and undervaluation signal 94% upside potential—learn why its focus on high-margin contracts is game-changing
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/QbcWgn3F0c
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Rewey AM on Kyndryl Holdings, $KD US
Thesis: Kyndryl’s aggressive transformation and undervaluation signal 94% upside potential—learn why its focus on high-margin contracts is game-changing
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/QbcWgn3F0c
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Ahmad Jivraj
10 quick things I learned this weekend that will make you smarter.
1) Many countries' stock markets are much more concentrated than the US markets. Did not know that!
cc @EugeneNg_VCap
https://t.co/h7M0hkiRxp
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10 quick things I learned this weekend that will make you smarter.
1) Many countries' stock markets are much more concentrated than the US markets. Did not know that!
cc @EugeneNg_VCap
https://t.co/h7M0hkiRxp
Many talk about the high concentration of stock in the US stock market.
However, there are far more countries with stock markets that are even more concentrated than the US's.
Context matters, perspectives matter, and don’t look at something in isolation. https://t.co/VKIGAaTuXt tweet
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Royce IP on Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI US
Thesis: Applied Optoelectronics thrives on AI-driven demand for optical components, making it a standout opportunity in the micro-cap universe
(Extract from their article) https://t.co/yaDjrcIdXT
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Royce IP on Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI US
Thesis: Applied Optoelectronics thrives on AI-driven demand for optical components, making it a standout opportunity in the micro-cap universe
(Extract from their article) https://t.co/yaDjrcIdXT
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AkhenOsiris
RT @SouthernValue95: “lurking beneath the surface is the uncomfortable truth that more supply — especially if it is near-unlimited, near-free supply — has to manifest somehow. Stark example: air — a highly valuable commodity, yet typically free due to near-unlimited supply” - John Mihaljevic on AIs risk to $CRM $ADBE $HUBS
John’s analogy is very flawed.
Firstly, AI is not free, like air, and incremental model breakthroughs like test-time compute require significant inference compute (cost / capital) to get the most value, suggesting AIs biggest gains could accrue to the large companies who can afford to really spend to get the best intelligence, and then integrate it, deliver it, service it, etc. AI isn’t “air.”
Second, even if AI was like Air, it’s not just about replacing basic functionality of your current app, or replicating 75% of it for a lower price (which might occur for very small / simple businesses). For a large enterprise, you have to replace the functionality of the software app but also make sure the 1k or even 10k other systems and teams and critical functions inside your company that rely on it run smoothly without a hitch when you change over. It would be like replacing all of your internal organs to get this new “air” and hoping you didn’t suddenly die in the changeover. And you have to bet those new organs function today, tomorrow, in 20 years, in unexpected conditions, when you are confronted by bugs and diseases, etc. Important to remember the cost to implement a new CRM or ERP can often run 3-4x the annual cost of the system and takes years, and rarely is pulled off without issues. This is what gave $ORCL $SAP 20 years to respond to disruption from the cloud, plenty of time to ultimately turn cloud into a business tailwind, not a disruptive risk, despite a very slow start. Today’s software incumbents are generally eyes and wallets wide open, investing aggressively to be well positioned for how AI might impact their business.
AI is a disruptive innovation and software companies cannot stand still and rely solely on legacy moats to preserve their market position. But it’s also not as simple as: existence of AI means anything using 0s and 1s is now “free and unlimited,” therefore doomed. What pays for the power, the DCs, the compute, the memory, the cooling, the networking, the infrastructure software? Who steps in to accept the risk of failure? Who will be online when something built by AI breaks? Who will be liable when it causes loss? Best of breed dedicated service providers will still have a role to play in an AI world and it may turn out, for some, that role is bigger and more valuable.
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RT @SouthernValue95: “lurking beneath the surface is the uncomfortable truth that more supply — especially if it is near-unlimited, near-free supply — has to manifest somehow. Stark example: air — a highly valuable commodity, yet typically free due to near-unlimited supply” - John Mihaljevic on AIs risk to $CRM $ADBE $HUBS
John’s analogy is very flawed.
Firstly, AI is not free, like air, and incremental model breakthroughs like test-time compute require significant inference compute (cost / capital) to get the most value, suggesting AIs biggest gains could accrue to the large companies who can afford to really spend to get the best intelligence, and then integrate it, deliver it, service it, etc. AI isn’t “air.”
Second, even if AI was like Air, it’s not just about replacing basic functionality of your current app, or replicating 75% of it for a lower price (which might occur for very small / simple businesses). For a large enterprise, you have to replace the functionality of the software app but also make sure the 1k or even 10k other systems and teams and critical functions inside your company that rely on it run smoothly without a hitch when you change over. It would be like replacing all of your internal organs to get this new “air” and hoping you didn’t suddenly die in the changeover. And you have to bet those new organs function today, tomorrow, in 20 years, in unexpected conditions, when you are confronted by bugs and diseases, etc. Important to remember the cost to implement a new CRM or ERP can often run 3-4x the annual cost of the system and takes years, and rarely is pulled off without issues. This is what gave $ORCL $SAP 20 years to respond to disruption from the cloud, plenty of time to ultimately turn cloud into a business tailwind, not a disruptive risk, despite a very slow start. Today’s software incumbents are generally eyes and wallets wide open, investing aggressively to be well positioned for how AI might impact their business.
AI is a disruptive innovation and software companies cannot stand still and rely solely on legacy moats to preserve their market position. But it’s also not as simple as: existence of AI means anything using 0s and 1s is now “free and unlimited,” therefore doomed. What pays for the power, the DCs, the compute, the memory, the cooling, the networking, the infrastructure software? Who steps in to accept the risk of failure? Who will be online when something built by AI breaks? Who will be liable when it causes loss? Best of breed dedicated service providers will still have a role to play in an AI world and it may turn out, for some, that role is bigger and more valuable.
I can’t share directly bc John has blocked me for disagreeing with his take on enterprise software being imminently and completely disrupted by AI. But below, @GSpier suggests @salesforce $CRM is a Ponzi scheme because they consistently raise prices and have “high churn” (it’s ~8%). Meanwhile he says $SPOT is the opposite…
1) Kindof a wild take to call software price increases a ponzi
2) What has been % increase in $SPOT price over last 3yr and what is their annual churn? $SPOT has raised prices more and has higher churn. - SouthernValuetweet
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Polen Capital on Tetra Tech $TTEK US
Thesis: Tetra Tech's leadership in water infrastructure and environmental consulting positions it perfectly for today's rising demand—learn how it’s capitalizing on global challenges
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/qHGaFrMHMh
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Polen Capital on Tetra Tech $TTEK US
Thesis: Tetra Tech's leadership in water infrastructure and environmental consulting positions it perfectly for today's rising demand—learn how it’s capitalizing on global challenges
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/qHGaFrMHMh
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RT @m_franceschetti: So good, so true
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RT @m_franceschetti: So good, so true
Hire for Drive by @pmarca https://t.co/J4GnBmfAZM tweet