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โ InsideArbitrage
The acquisition of Manitex International $MNTX by Tadano was completed on January 2, 2025.
It took 112 days for the deal to be completed. https://t.co/zibTxLQ9Ke
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The acquisition of Manitex International $MNTX by Tadano was completed on January 2, 2025.
It took 112 days for the deal to be completed. https://t.co/zibTxLQ9Ke
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โ InsideArbitrage
The acquisition of Independent Bank $IBTX by SouthState Corporation $SSB was completed on January 1, 2025.
It took 226 days for the deal to be completed. https://t.co/ZNx8ayrkfR
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The acquisition of Independent Bank $IBTX by SouthState Corporation $SSB was completed on January 1, 2025.
It took 226 days for the deal to be completed. https://t.co/ZNx8ayrkfR
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โ InsideArbitrage
$BABA share repurchase update๐๐
โด๏ธDuring the quarter ended December 31, 2024, it repurchased a total of 119 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 15 million ADSs) for $1.3 billion in the U.S. market under its share repurchase program - this accounts for the lowest number of shares repurchased over the last eight quarters
โด๏ธThis equals 0.6% net reduction in their outstanding shares after accounting for shares issued under ESOP
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$BABA share repurchase update๐๐
โด๏ธDuring the quarter ended December 31, 2024, it repurchased a total of 119 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 15 million ADSs) for $1.3 billion in the U.S. market under its share repurchase program - this accounts for the lowest number of shares repurchased over the last eight quarters
โด๏ธThis equals 0.6% net reduction in their outstanding shares after accounting for shares issued under ESOP
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Offshore
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โ InsideArbitrage
CECO Environmental $CECO completed the tender offer to acquire all of the shares of Profire Energy $PFIE at a price per share of $2.55.
The Offer expired on December 31, 2024. https://t.co/Z5ydcoxTHq
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CECO Environmental $CECO completed the tender offer to acquire all of the shares of Profire Energy $PFIE at a price per share of $2.55.
The Offer expired on December 31, 2024. https://t.co/Z5ydcoxTHq
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Perritt CM on Ceragon Networks $CRNT US
Thesis: Ceragon leverages wireless innovation and rising demand for high-bandwidth networks, poised for rapid growth and operational gains
(Extract from their article) https://t.co/Yb3n8ifXTf
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Perritt CM on Ceragon Networks $CRNT US
Thesis: Ceragon leverages wireless innovation and rising demand for high-bandwidth networks, poised for rapid growth and operational gains
(Extract from their article) https://t.co/Yb3n8ifXTf
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โ Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Mike Collins just bought up to another $15K of a cryptocurrency called "Ski Mask Dog".
It appears to have a market cap of just over $200M.
The last time he bought the coin, it rose 280% in three days.
Track politicians' portfolios on Quiver. https://t.co/4yhBzY8hM0
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BREAKING: Representative Mike Collins just bought up to another $15K of a cryptocurrency called "Ski Mask Dog".
It appears to have a market cap of just over $200M.
The last time he bought the coin, it rose 280% in three days.
Track politicians' portfolios on Quiver. https://t.co/4yhBzY8hM0
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โ Investing visuals
Tesla $TSLA delivered 495,570 vehicles in Q4 2024, well below estimates of 512,466. The Stock is down -6% as a result.
An overview of $TSLA car deliveries over the past years๐ https://t.co/dWc2oKwDU7
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Tesla $TSLA delivered 495,570 vehicles in Q4 2024, well below estimates of 512,466. The Stock is down -6% as a result.
An overview of $TSLA car deliveries over the past years๐ https://t.co/dWc2oKwDU7
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 46.01x
โข1-Year Mean: 48.23x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE earnings per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $6.67B
โขLong-Term Debt: $3.04B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, an ok BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 20x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐โก๏ธโ
โข2019: (4.8%)
โข2020: 3.7%
โข2021: 8.1%
โข2022: 14.2%
โข2023: 25.3%
โขLTM: 20.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐โก๏ธโ
โข2019: (14.2%)
โข2020: (0.1%)
โข2021: 5.2%
โข2022: 28.7%
โข2023: 40.3%
โขLTM: 42.6%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2018: $1.44B
โข2023: $14.47B
โขCAGR: 58.64%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2018: $133.35M
โข2023: $4.63B
โขCAGR: 203.29%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2018: ($0.82)
โข2023: $22.84
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 44.53M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 51.28M
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 7.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at a 23.01% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (23.01%) required growth rate:
2024E: $33.53 (46.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $45.32 (35.1% YoY)
2026E: $61.78 (36.3% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MELI ends 2026 with $61.78 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $2471๐ต โฆ ~18.8% CAGR
38x P/E: $2347๐ต โฆ ~15.8% CAGR
36x P/E: $2224๐ต โฆ ~12.8% CAGR
34x P/E: $2100๐ต โฆ ~9.6% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >36x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include ๐
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
Those buying $MELI today at $1750๐ต are buying an excellent growth company at a fair, or better, price
While itโs wise to be skeptical of aggressive growth rates, $MELI growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return
I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,650๐ต (~7% below todayโs price) where I can reasonably expect ~12.8% CAGR while assuming a 34x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 46.01x
โข1-Year Mean: 48.23x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE earnings per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $6.67B
โขLong-Term Debt: $3.04B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, an ok BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 20x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐โก๏ธโ
โข2019: (4.8%)
โข2020: 3.7%
โข2021: 8.1%
โข2022: 14.2%
โข2023: 25.3%
โขLTM: 20.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐โก๏ธโ
โข2019: (14.2%)
โข2020: (0.1%)
โข2021: 5.2%
โข2022: 28.7%
โข2023: 40.3%
โขLTM: 42.6%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2018: $1.44B
โข2023: $14.47B
โขCAGR: 58.64%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2018: $133.35M
โข2023: $4.63B
โขCAGR: 203.29%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2018: ($0.82)
โข2023: $22.84
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 44.53M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 51.28M
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 7.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at a 23.01% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (23.01%) required growth rate:
2024E: $33.53 (46.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $45.32 (35.1% YoY)
2026E: $61.78 (36.3% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MELI ends 2026 with $61.78 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $2471๐ต โฆ ~18.8% CAGR
38x P/E: $2347๐ต โฆ ~15.8% CAGR
36x P/E: $2224๐ต โฆ ~12.8% CAGR
34x P/E: $2100๐ต โฆ ~9.6% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >36x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include ๐
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
Those buying $MELI today at $1750๐ต are buying an excellent growth company at a fair, or better, price
While itโs wise to be skeptical of aggressive growth rates, $MELI growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return
I consider $MELI a strong buy closer to $1,650๐ต (~7% below todayโs price) where I can reasonably expect ~12.8% CAGR while assuming a 34x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ โขNTM P/E Ratio: 46.01x โข1-Year Mean: 48.23x As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE earnings per share ๐ง ***โฆ
๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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