Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
UST declined after hawkish comments from Fed officials made it apparent that policy pivot unlikely

10Y yield pushed above 2.85% as swaps markets showed traders now pricing in 50% chance for 75 bps in Sept. 10-year had slumped toward 2.5% on expectation that hike would be smaller
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
*FED-RELATED SWAPS SHOW 1-IN-2 ODDS OF 75BP HIKE IN SEPTEMBER
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Morning Brew β˜•οΈ
The recalled products include hoverboards, baby rockers, children's watches, and clothes. https://t.co/BVmgREWWe7
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
QT has been slow since June 15, but we expect it to accelerate in September/October: https://t.co/lqz8wNTf0F
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
$REV is in bankruptcy...could go to 0, yet people continue to speculate

https://t.co/uqlCsR6QIm https://t.co/uiTYSm3W2v
$REV Revlon is not Hertz. Not necessarily enough asset value to result in anything left for equity. Could be 0. Yet it continues to be pumped. Fed needs to tighten more. A lot of funny stuff continues to go on in the market. Just noticed this one. https://t.co/twUmkk1E9W - Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
Interesting SOFR hedge today:
SOFR Options Trade Targets 5.5% Fed Terminal Rate by End-2023 (6k contracts traded)
Dec23 SOFR options expire 12/15/23, with trade targeting 5.5% by that point; open int in 96.50 put as of Tues close was 11.6k, with no open int in the 94.50 strike
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Jim OShaughnessy
"For if these are the legacy practices we’re leaving behind, then I don’t see how it’s not an objective improvement."
~@erikphoel

How prestige outlets like The Guardian get away with copypasta, by @erikphoel https://t.co/1AXSVrCebl
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Morning Brew β˜•οΈ
Ramen is indisputably great β€” but not always the healthiest option. Would you invest in an alternative? (ft. @businessbarista) https://t.co/qchMyLvVCX
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Morning Brew β˜•οΈ
Job offers in the U.S. decreased from 11,303,000 in May of this year to 10,698,000 in June. https://t.co/iSFbuxB18H
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
Is $META raising debt to do a buyback? Why is it raising debt w $40bn of gross cash/securities?

Meta has asked $MS, $JPM, $BAML, and $BARC to arrange a series of FI investor calls on Wednesday, Aug. 3. $MS will coordinate logistics. A senior unsecured debt offering will follow.
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FXHedge
PELOSI'S HUSBAND, PAUL PLEADS NOT GUILTY OVER DUI CRASH -NYP
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Paul Graham
"Pompous people can't meme. The closest you get to a pompous meme is a New Yorker cartoon."

β€” Steve Huffman
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
$BBBY Bed Bath and Beyond struggling with liquidity issues after poor earnings
-Bed Bath and Beyond Is Said to Mull Private Loans for Liquidity
-Retailer’s debt plunged amid sales slump, excess inventory
-Company hired adviser to help optimize balance sheet
-CEO quit in JUne
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