⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
5 months ago I stated:

“Today at $429💵 $MA appears to be a strong consideration for investment”

Since then, $MA shares rallied +25% ✅

As I stated in the post attached below 👇🏽

“As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x earnings (well-below the 10-year mean & more than justified given its quality & growth rate)

$MA is such a high-quality business & has the potential to compound in the mid teens for the next 5 years & companies with strong & consistent earnings growth tend to look cheap years later (even if investors thought they were “expensive” or even better, slightly undervalued, at the time)”

A sober valuation analysis on $MA 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.16x
•10-Year Mean: 31.32x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.48%
•10-Year Mean: 3.41%

As you can see, $MA appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share & ~2% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MA is a super business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $7.66B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.54B

$MA has a strong balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 19.79x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 62.9%
•2020: 40.6%
•2021: 45.7%
•2022: 58.5%
•2023: 61.1%
•LTM: 64.1%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 141.4%
•2020: 102.5%
•2021: 124.7%
•2022: 144.0%
•2023: 167.4%
•LTM: 186.3%

$MA has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $8.31B
•2023: $25.10B
•CAGR: 11.68%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $3.98B
•2023: $11.61B
•CAGR: 11.30%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.61
•2023: $12.26
•CAGR: 16.73%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.29
•2023: $2.37
•CAGR: 23.37%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.21B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 939M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~22.4%, $MA increased its EPS by ~28.8% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 46.1%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS & ~2% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MA has to grow earnings at a 14.58% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (14.58%) required growth rate:

2024E: $14.27 (16.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $16.57 (16.1% YoY)
2026E: $19.33 (16.7% YoY)

$MA has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MA ends 2026 with $19.33 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

31x P/E: $599.23💵 … ~14.9% CAGR

30x P/E: $579.90💵 … ~13.4% CAGR

29x P/E: $560.57💵 … ~11.9% CAGR

28x P/E: $541.24💵 … ~10.6% CAGR

As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x earnings (well-below the 10-year mean & more than justified given its quality & growth rate)

$MA is such a high-quality business & has the potential to compound in the mid teens for the next 5 years & companies with strong & consistent earnings growth tend to look cheap years later (even if investors thought they were “expensive” or even better, slightly undervalued, at the time)

Today at $429💵 $MA appears to be a strong consideration for investment

Given that $MA has historically bottomed near 26x earnings, I'd also leave some room to purchase additional shares if the stock were to trade at that multiple, which would be about 10% lower, or around $386💵

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 [...]

𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet

⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨Breaking: Insider Purchases at $PGNY

The CEO of $PGNY has reported the purchase of ~$3M of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 90%.

The Board Chairman also just reported purchasing $2.2M in shares.

The stock has dropped by over 60% this year, but these are the first insider purchases in over 4 years.
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⁠InsideArbitrage
Martin Midstream Partners $MMLP terminated the merger with Martin Resource Management Corporation.
🛢️The Merger Agreement was terminated by the mutual written consent of MRMC and MMLP.
🛢️MMLP also announced the cancellation of its special meeting of unitholders scheduled for December 30, 2024.
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⁠InsideArbitrage
$FHB First Hawaiian Chief Operating Officer Christopher L. Dods resigns effective March 31, 2025.

- Dods joined First Hawaiian Bank in 2007, starting in the Card Services Division, managing credit/debit card development, operations, and compliance.

Earlier this month, First Hawaiian completed a restructuring of its available-for-sale investment securities portfolio.

🔄 Sold $293M in lower-yielding securities, recognizing a one-time after-tax loss of $19.7M ($26.2M pre-tax).

- Proceeds reinvested into securities yielding 5.01% (vs. 1.92% previously)

📈 Projected to increase 2025 net interest income by $8.6M and net interest margin by 4 basis points.
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⁠Ahmad Jivraj
Advance Auto Parts 👇

$AAP
I rarely bet on turnarounds but this one seems plausible

Brief thesis:
-New management team has put forward a new plan to improve operations, and have demonstrated early progress.
-Sold a business line to improve their cash position by $1.5 Billion
-Will continue to consolidate their supply chain.
-Closing 700 stores to improve profitability.
-Expectations are quite low but the company is projecting $9B in sales at a 7% operating margin by Fiscal 2027.
-That's about $600 million compared with TTM operating income of just $140 million!
-Consensus 2027 EPS is ~3/sh while the above projections should yield EPS of $5-6 per share

If management ends up even remotely close to their projections, the stock likely doubles. - Ahmad Jivraj
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Orbis on GMO $3769 JP

Thesis: GMO’s buyback program and diversified growth drivers position it for sustained profit and shareholder value creation

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/sdmbO7D56u
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⁠InsideArbitrage
Amedisys $AMED and UnitedHealth Group $UNH extended the deadline to complete the merger -
⚕️Extension allows more time unless either the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland permanently blocks the merger,
⚕️Or, the new deadline of December 31, 2025, is reached.
⚕️If the merger fails due to regulatory issues, a fee of $275 million will apply, which could increase to $325 million if certain deadlines for selling assets to gain approval are missed.
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⁠Startup Archive
Elon Musk explains his 5-step algorithm for running companies

“First, make your requirements less dumb. Your requirements are definitely dumb… It’s particularly dangerous if a smart person gave you the requirements because you might not question them enough.”

In this interview at Starbase, Elon elaborates on his methodology for shipping everything from electric cars to rockets.

Here’s his “algorithm” quoted in full from the Walter Isaacson biography:

1. Question every requirement. Each should come with the name of the person who made it. You should never accept that a requirement came from a department, such as from "the legal department" or "the safety department." You need to know the name of the real person who made that requirement. Then you should question it, no matter how smart that person is. Requirements from smart people are the most dangerous, because people are less likely to question them. Always do so, even if the requirement came from me. Then make the requirements less dumb.

2. Delete any part or process you can. You may have to add them back later. In fact, if you do not end up adding back at least 10% of them, then you didn't delete enough.

3. Simplify and optimize. This should come after step two. A common mistake is to simplify and optimize a part or a process that should not exist.

4. Accelerate cycle time. Every process can be speeded up. But only do this after you have followed the first three steps. In the Tesla factory, I mistakenly spent a lot of time accelerating processes that I later realized should have been deleted.

5. Automate. That comes last. The big mistake in Nevada and at Fremont was that I began by trying to automate every step. We should have waited until all the requirements had been questioned, parts and processes deleted, and the bugs were shaken out.

Elon shares a costly example of doing this process in reverse on the Tesla Model 3 production line and optimizing a part that didn’t even need to exist.

“It’s possibly the most common error of a smart engineer to optimize a thing that should not exist. Everyone’s been trained in high school and college that you answer the question — convergent logic. You can’t tell the professor your question is dumb or you’ll get a bad grade. You have to answer the question. So everyone, without knowing, basically has this mental straight jacket on and they’ll work on optimizing the thing that should simply not exist.”

Video source: @Erdayastronaut (2021)
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Kathmandu Capital on Kaspi $KSPI LI

Thesis: Kaspi is a top investment in Kazakhstan, leveraging regulatory advantages and regional growth with strategic acquisitions

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/7NSAXoib7M
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⁠Investing visuals
How $AMD makes money (Q3'24 data)👇 https://t.co/KmmcaD7aHc
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