⁠Capital Employed
FRESH OFF THE PRESS 🔥

Investor interview #103 with John Davenport @JohnJSCap from J&S Capital @JandSCap

John does a deep dive into a US small cap trading well under its NAV + much more.

You can read the full interview here 👇

https://t.co/EsyO05HhgC https://t.co/r2kRJbrrvA
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Loomis Sayles on Adyen $ADYEN NA

Thesis: Adyen’s industry leadership, secular shift to digital payments, and margin expansion potential position it for long-term growth at a discounted valuation

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/8isGv7mbYr
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⁠Startup Archive
Mark Zuckerberg on how to avoid bad hires when your startup is growing quickly

As Mark explains, every fast-growing startup will repeatedly face the choice: “Do I hire the person who’s in front of me now because they seem good?” or “Do I hold out to get someone who’s even better?”

Mark offers his personal heuristic for founders facing this choice:

“The heuristic that I always focused on for myself and my own kind of direct hiring, that I think works when you recurse it through the organization, is that you should only hire someone to be on your team if you would be happy working for them in an alternate universe. I think that works, and that’s basically how I’ve tried to build my team.”

He continues:

“I’m not in a rush to not be running the company, but I think in an alternate universe where one of these other folks was running the company, I’d be happy to work for them. I feel like I’d learn from them. I respect their general judgment. They’re all very insightful. They have good values… I think if you apply that at every layer in the organization, then you’ll have a pretty strong organization.”

Video source: @lexfridman (2023)
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Lindsell Train on Nintendo $7974 JP

Thesis: Nintendo’s thoughtful console transition strategy, expanding global footprint, and increased digitalization of software sales position it well for long-term growth.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/ngvHKy8ChO
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Less than 2 months ago I stated:

“Today at $193💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment”

Since then, $AMZN shares gained +18% ✅

As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽

“As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple well below what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate

Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈

2024E: $53.89B (46% YoY)
2025E: $72.40B (34% YoY)
2026E: $97.17B (34% YoY)

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:

☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B

Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)

Today at $193💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment”

#stocks #investing"

A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.14x
•10-Year Mean: 24.25x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.88%
•10-Year Mean: 2.86%

As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~33% MORE in operating cash flow & ~1% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $89.09B
•Long-Term Debt: $61.78B

$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 39x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 13.8%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 21.9%

$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.64B

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 9.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.4%

*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~33% MORE in OCF & ~1% MORE in FCF per share

We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:

2024E: $11.14 (38% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $13.22 (19% YoY)
2026E: $16.85 (27% YoY)

$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.85 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):

18x P/OCF: $303.28💵 … ~23.3% CAGR

17x P/OCF: $286.43💵 … ~20.0% CAGR

16x P/OCF: $269.58💵 … ~16.7% CAGR

15x P/OCF: $252.73💵 … ~13.3% CAGR

14x P/OCF: $235.88💵 … ~9.8% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple well below what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate

Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈

2024E: $53.89B (46% YoY)
2025E: $72.40B (34% YoY)
2026E: $97.17B (34% YoY)

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:

☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B

Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)

Today [...]

at $193💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing

Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Never seen anything like THIS before:

DEMOCRATIC Representative Morgan McGarvey just disclosed a purchase of Trump Media stock, $DJT.

The trade was made the day after the election.

He says it was purchased without his or his spouse's knowledge.

It was then sold two days later for a loss.

He disclosed about a dozen other trades - you can track them all on Quiver.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$GOOG is +9% in the last days

$GOOG is still cheap

#stocks #investing https://t.co/pATL3EYChv
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