⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 20.07x
•10-Year Mean: 23.62x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.36%
•10-Year Mean: 4.18%

As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $93.23B
•Long-Term Debt: $10.88B

$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 370x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 31.7%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 32.1%

$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $136.82B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 17.57%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $22.83B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 24.93%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 21.50%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.51B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~12.3% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 32.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~4% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 10.04% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (10.04%) required growth rate:

2024E: $7.98 (37.5% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $8.95 (12.2% YoY)
2026E: $10.16 (13.5% YoY)
2027E: $11.78 (15.9% YoY)

$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $GOOG ends 2027 with $11.78 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

23x P/E: $270.94💵 … ~16.7% CAGR

22x P/E: $259.16💵 … ~15.0% CAGR

21x P/E: $247.38💵 … ~13.3% CAGR

20x P/E: $235.60💵 … ~11.5% CAGR

19x P/E: $223.82💵 … ~9.7% CAGR

As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >20 earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean)

At >22x earnings, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~22x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)

Those buying today have a decent margin of safety given

In $GOOG latest report we saw a strong re-acceleration in cloud growth ☁️ & margins continue to expand

Today at $173💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment

#stocks #investing $GOOGL
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠App Economy Insights
Cyber week smashed records.

📦 Online sales soar double-digit.
📱 Mobile tops 53% of transactions.
💳 Gen Z & Millennials embrace BNPL.
📆 Holiday sales span all of November.

Let’s visualize the trends. 👇
https://t.co/tfEYyS0uCE
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AkhenOsiris
The old "triple the price target trick" thanks to being brutally offsides.

BofA Double Upgrades $CRDO to Buy from Underperform, Raises PT to $80 from $27

Analyst comments: "Following a solid beat and material raise earnings call, we double upgrade Credo, and raise FY26/27E EPS est. by 65%/88% to $1.01/$1.51, and take our price objective to $80 from $27.

Our new price objective is based on 60x CY26E PE (from 10x CY25E EV/S previously as Credo shifts to translating sales growth to better earnings growth), inline with the higher end of comps, as CRDO’s outlook suggests the start of a multi-year adoption cycle for its Active Electrical Cable (AEC) product that enables power-efficient AI clusters.

Near term, we see the company driving a strong 2HFY25E (Jan25Q plus Apr25Q), driven by strong AI growth at Amazon Web Services, a key customer (and investor) in CRDO. Our prior cautious view was based on limited TAM assumptions for AEC, but CRDO’s earnings call addressed those concerns nicely, with three 10% customers (Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla) and growing momentum in other adjacent areas (optical DSP, line card PHY, retimer).

Risks to our call are CRDO’s premium valuation, high sensitivity to any sentiment shift around AI deployments, and growing competition in the AEC market (from $MRVL, $AVGO)."

Analyst: Vivek Arya - Wall St Engine
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AkhenOsiris
$AMZN

Black Friday through Cyber Monday sales press release usually drops at 9am ET with the usual "record breaking performance". Primarily a fluff piece lacking hard #s but on occasion a nugget or two.
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Just came across one of the wildest trades I've seen.

U.S. Representative Mike Collins just bought up to $30K of a cryptocurrency called "Ski Mask Dog".

It appears to have a market cap of less than $100M.

Track politicians' portfolios on Quiver: https://t.co/NEDFJ5g3ld
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⁠Investing visuals
How you can tell that $ASML is a cyclical business: https://t.co/utcE81eXEO
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
TCW on Western Alliance Bancorp $WAL US

Thesis: Western Alliance's proactive management and strong deposit growth position it for resilience and outperformance in the evolving banking landscape

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/0TfPwI6a36
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
$SKI has risen 38% since this trade was disclosed.

It's been just over an hour. https://t.co/zj4lklo0ZY
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⁠Startup Archive
Sam Altman on how to get your first 100 users

Sam walks through four common strategies to get your fist 100 users in order of best to worst:

1. Use your network. Email everyone you know and call in favors from anyone you can think of. But if it’s a paid product, make sure you charge them. “People who are inclined to do you favors are going to be too nice in what they tell you. So if it’s a paid product, charge them.”

2. Research people who might use your product and email them asking them to try it. “Conversion rates are low—maybe 2-3%—so you’ll have to reach out to more people. But you can send targeted emails saying ‘Hey, I just made this new product. I’d really appreciate if you would try it out.’ Most people want to be helpful.”

3. Social media outreach, posting to HN, forums, PR, etc. “The important thing to look for here is a traffic source that is sustainable rather than one big pop that then promptly goes away.” Airbnb is an example of a company that made PR work as an ongoing process—they were able to come up with press stunt after press stunt. But it’s hard.

4. Buy ads and point them at your website. “This is the ‘laziest’ and least impressive thing you can do… This is not what I’d recommend. I don’t know of any startup that has gotten big starting this way. I include it because it’s the idea that most people try.”

This may sound basic, but I think this advice is important. Getting your first 100 users is mostly hard work. As Sam puts it:

“Everyone thinks they’re going to put up this website, tell one person about it, and it’s going to take off like wildfire. But that’s not what usually happens.”

For a more detailed guide on customer acquisition, I’d recommend the book Traction by Gabriel Weinberg (founder & CEO of DuckDuckGo). It walks through nineteen channels you can use to build a customer base, and offers a framework to figure out which ones will work best for your business.

Video source: @StanfordOnline (2017)
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⁠Ahmad Jivraj
According to Saylor there are now 120 companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet!

My discussion of the economic benefits of Bitcoin scarcity & volatility, $MSTR treasury operations, the surge in corporations adopting $BTC strategies, and the opportunity that #Bitcoin represents to $MSFT shareholders, with @JoeSquawk and @BeckyQuick.
https://t.co/FEfT7LpSpE - Michael Saylor⚡️
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