⁠Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi's portfolio just hit ANOTHER all-time high.

She has made $1.6M in the stock market so far today, per our estimates.

We estimate that she is now worth $265M: https://t.co/xI7wjRHAUf
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 15.00x
•10-Year Mean: 24.25x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.72%
•10-Year Mean: 2.87%

As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~61% MORE in operating cash flow & ~5% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $88.05B
•Long-Term Debt: $62.39B

$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 44x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 14.5%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 22.6%

$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.68B

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 9.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 8.0%

*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~61% MORE in OCF & ~5% LESS in FCF per share

We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2026:

2024E: $11.08 (37% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $14.06 (27% YoY)
2026E: $16.86 (20% YoY)

$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.86 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):

18x P/OCF: $303.48💵 … ~19.88% CAGR

17x P/OCF: $286.62💵 … ~16.64% CAGR

16x P/OCF: $269.76💵 … ~13.30% CAGR

15x P/OCF: $252.90💵 … ~9.85% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well below what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded near since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate

Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈

2024E: $43.62B (19% YoY)
2025E: $65.73B (50% YoY)
2026E: $91.58B (39% YoY)

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:

☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B

Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)

Today at $211💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing

Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Startup Archive
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang: “I wish upon you plenty of pain and suffering”

“There’s a phrase that says you should choose your career based on your passion. And usually people connect passion with happiness… Nothing there is wrong, but there’s something missing. And the reason for that is because when you want to build something great, it’s not easy to do. And when you’re doing something that’s not easy to do, you’re not always enjoying it.”

Jensen continues:

“I don’t love every day of my job… And every day I’m not happy… But I love the company every single second. And so I think what people misunderstand is [they think] the best jobs are the ones that bring you happiness all the time. I don’t think that’s right. You have to suffer. You have to struggle. You have to endeavor. You have to do those hard things and work through it in order to really appreciate what you’ve done. There’s no such thing that is great that was easy to do.”

He tells the audience:

“I wish upon you greatness, which by my way of saying it, I wish upon you plenty of pain and suffering.”

Video source: @stripe (2024)
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @mikemcg0: “I don’t love every day of my job… And every day I’m not happy… But I love the company every single second. And so I think what people misunderstand is [they think] the best jobs are the ones that bring you happiness all the time. I don’t think that’s right. You have to suffer. You have to struggle. You have to endeavor. You have to do those hard things and work through it in order to really appreciate what you’ve done. There’s no such thing that is great that was easy to do.”

- Jensen Huang

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang: “I wish upon you plenty of pain and suffering”

“There’s a phrase that says you should choose your career based on your passion. And usually people connect passion with happiness… Nothing there is wrong, but there’s something missing. And the reason for that is because when you want to build something great, it’s not easy to do. And when you’re doing something that’s not easy to do, you’re not always enjoying it.”

Jensen continues:

“I don’t love every day of my job… And every day I’m not happy… But I love the company every single second. And so I think what people misunderstand is [they think] the best jobs are the ones that bring you happiness all the time. I don’t think that’s right. You have to suffer. You have to struggle. You have to endeavor. You have to do those hard things and work through it in order to really appreciate what you’ve done. There’s no such thing that is great that was easy to do.”

He tells the audience:

“I wish upon you greatness, which by my way of saying it, I wish upon you plenty of pain and suffering.”

Video source: @stripe (2024) - Startup Archive
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
TCW on Teva Pharmaceutical $TEVA US

Thesis: Teva’s strategic refocus on biosimilars under new leadership positions it for innovation-led growth and market leadership

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/eQ6iYbPfPE
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @salestaxceo: Working at a startup isn't for everyone.

It’s demanding—it requires resilience, adaptability, and willingness to step outside your comfort zone.

But it also opens up endless opportunities for growth and impact.

1- Being a passive contributor isn’t an option. You’re the driving force—your actions directly drive impact.

2- The sky is the limit for those willing to step up and get their hands dirty. You can get as much ownership as you want.

3- If any startup tells you it's a 9-5 job…they’re lying to you. Startups succeed because people work like hell. It’s a constant grind.

Former CEO Eric Schmidt explains why Google fumbled its lead in AI

“Google decided that work life balance and going home early and working from home was more important than winning. And the reason startups work is because the people work like hell.”

He continues:

“There's a long history of companies winning in a genuinely creative way and really dominating a space and not making the next transition. It's very well documented. And I think that the truth is, founders are special. The founders need to be in charge. The founders are difficult to work with. They push people hard.”

Eric recalls having dinner with Elon Musk recently. Elon had a flight that night at 10pm for a midnight meeting with the team at xAI.

“The reason I'm being so harsh about work ethic, is that these are systems which have network effects. So time matters a lot.”

In most businesses (e.g. Coke vs Pepsi) time doesn’t matter. But if you’re in a business with network effects, working hard and moving faster than your competitors is critical.

Video Source: @StanfordOnline - Startup Archive
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⁠iinvested
3Q'24 Mar Vista Strategic Growth Fund on $AME, $SYK, $UL

More fund letters here:
https://t.co/ccjFhSPQ2v https://t.co/SUqGr1qMgR
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