⁠Startup Archive
Sam Altman on the biggest mistake startup CEOs make when scaling a company

“When you’re a Seed or Series A company, you spend a huge amount of effort recruiting, but almost no effort retaining talent — and that is [the right strategy] at the beginning. But if you don’t shift to viewing retaining talent as much of your job as recruiting talent, you eventually have some level of a disaster on your hands.”

Sam recalls Mark Zuckerberg speaking at Y Combinator and saying he only hires people he’d report to if the roles were reversed. Sam reflects on this:

“If you’re hiring people that are that good — which you should be doing — they have as many opportunities as you do… And so if you don’t make the role good enough that you yourself would stay in it, then you have a hard time retaining your best people for a long period of time.”

Sam gives three pieces of tactical advice for CEOs who want to retain their best people:

1. Spend one-on-one time with your best people

“The thing that your best 5-10 people crave the most is time with you, the CEO. And that is something that as people get busier, they spend less and less time on. Some of the best CEOs in our portfolio, every month they will take out for a one-on-one dinner or drinks or something each of their best 10 people. This is a huge time commitment. If you think about it, you only get 30 dinner slots in a month. It’s a really big thing to do. But I think it actually works because that is the thing these people really crave… They want you to ask them what you think they should be doing and listen to them and have a personal connection. That’s super important.”

2. Continually give them more responsibility

“I think if you stop giving people more responsibility, they will eventually leave. If they get to take on new tasks every year or additional tasks every year, they’re happier.”

3. Proactively re-up their compensation

“I think most founders are very bad about proactively re-upping — to the level that they should — their top 5-10 lieutenants.”

Video source: @khoslaventures (2016)
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
3 months ago I stated:

“Today at $3,618.86💵 $BKNG appears to be a decent consideration for investment”

Since then, $BKNG shares rallied +44% ✅

As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽

“As you can see, $BKNG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >19x earnings, a valuation below both its current & 3-year mean (allowing for slight multiple compression, an added layer of a margin of safety)

Also, $BKNG EPS growth rate ( >10%) more than justifies a >20x multiple”

$BKNG has plenty room for margin expansion💰
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While a rapid appreciation in share price can be gratifying, it's often counterintuitive for long-term investors

Ideally, I prefer to see these high-quality businesses trade at attractive valuations for an extended period, allowing for the accumulation of shares at a more favorable price

This enables us to build a larger position in a company we believe in, ultimately increasing our potential for long-term returns
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#stocks #investing"

A sober valuation analysis on $BKNG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.75x
•3-Year Mean: 21.24x

•NTM FCF Yield: 5.63%
•3-Year Mean: 4.79%

As you can see, $BKNG appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share & ~17% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $BKNG is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.33B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.36B

$BKNG has a great balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 8.41x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 33.3%
•2020: 2.7%
•2021: 14.2%
•2022: 29.1%
•2023: 47.3%
•LTM: 48.4%

$BKNG has strong ROIC, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $6.79B
•2023: $21.37B
•CAGR: 12.14%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.22B
•2023: $7.00B
•CAGR: 12.16%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $41.72
•2023: $152.22
•CAGR: 13.81%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 52.41M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 35.04M

By reducing its shares outstanding 33%, $BKNG increased its EPS by 50% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS & ~17% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $BKNG has to grow earnings at a 9.88% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be just more than (9.88%) required growth rate:

2024E: $175.64 (15.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $201.51 (14.7% YoY)
2026E: $236.96 (17.6% YoY)

$BKNG has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $BKNG ends 2026 with $236.96 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

21x P/E: $4,976.16💵 … ~15.5% CAGR

20x P/E: $4,739.20💵 … ~13.1% CAGR

19x P/E: $4,502.24💵 … ~10.7% CAGR

18x P/E: $4,265.28💵 … ~8.2% CAGR

17x P/E: $4,028.32💵 … ~5.6% CAGR

As you can see, $BKNG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >19x earnings, a valuation below both its current & 3-year mean (allowing for slight multiple compression, an added layer of a margin of safety)

Also, $BKNG EPS growth rate ( >10%) more than justifies a >20x multiple

Today at $3,618.86💵 $BKNG appears to be a decent consideration for investment

I’d consider $BKNG a great purchase closer to $3,400 (~18.50x multiple) roughly 6% below today’s share price or at $3,400.00💵

This is where I can reasonably expect ~11% CAGR assuming a conservative 18x 2026 earnings estimates, a large margin of safety

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢[...]

𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
6 High-Quality Stocks Where Earnings Growth Outpaced Share Price YTD 💸 — The Last Stock Got Cheaper Despite Being +21% YTD 👀

🤖 Nvidia $NVDA
•YTD: +176%
•Jan NTM P/E: 24.78x
•NTM P/E: 34.72x
•Multiple Change: +40%

📸 Meta Platforms $META
•YTD: +62%
•Jan NTM P/E: 20.32x
•NTM P/E: 23.48x
•Multiple Change: +15%

💵 Mastercard $MA
•YTD: +24%
•Jan NTM P/E: 30.86x
•NTM P/E: 33.66x
•Multiple Change: +9%

📦 Amazon $AMZN
•YTD: +37%
•Jan NTM P/OCF: 13.08x
•NTM P/OCF: 14.03x
•Multiple Change: +7%

💳 Visa $V
•YTD: +20%
•Jan NTM P/E: 26.20x
•NTM P/E: 27.80x
•Multiple Change: +5%

🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG
•YTD: +21%
•Jan NTM P/E: 21.45x
•NTM P/E: 19.79x
•Multiple Change: -7%
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#stocks #investing
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⁠Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
How to Spot a Value Trap in Plain Sight - Using ROIC (Tutorial)

Love how the New Constructs Model Portfolios display companies like this instantly, saves me time and saves me from losing money on bad high growth stocks @NewConstructs https://t.co/DzlcCyDBLS
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Hedge funds' best ideas #20 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)

Includes links to the Q3 letters from TCW / Alger / Aristotle / BIT Capital / Blue Tower AM / Brandes / Clearbridge / Cooper Investors / Epoch IP / Focus Capital / Ganes / Greenhaven Road Capital / Harding Loevner / LVS Advisory / Miller Value / Oakmark / TAMIM Fund / Wasatch GI
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⁠Startup Archive
RT @MattPRD: This is a key skill when starting a company.

Y Combinator Partners on DoorDash, Instacart, and doing things that don’t scale

Apoorva Mehta’s idea for Instacart was to let users order their groceries with the tap of a button.

Some founders might’ve spent months trying to negotiate corporate partnerships with grocery stores like Trade Joe’s or Whole Foods before starting this business. But the first thing Apoorva did was test whether this was something people even wanted.

His team took their YC money, went to Trader Joe’s and bought one of every item. They then rented a photography studio, took pictures of every item, wrote down the prices, and posted it all to their website. When an order came in, they bought the item from Trader Joe’s and delivered it.

This allowed them to prove that Instacart was something customers wanted, and only once they hit scale did they negotiate partnerships with large grocery chains.

YC Partner Tom Blomfield sums up the core advantage this approach that Paul Graham advocates for in his essay Do Things That Don’t Scale:

“In the cases where you do things that don’t scale and it turns out no one wants it, that’s actually a good thing because you’ve saved yourself months or years of building something no one wants… And by doing this stuff that doesn’t scale, you can give the appearance of that service or product already existing by basically faking it manually, pulling the strings in the background, and doing tons of hard work yourself to deliver that incredible white glove experience to customers.”

YC CEO Garry Tan adds:

“Doing things that don’t scale lets you experiment, fail fast, and try new things. It lets you test your assumptions before you spend months building a product.”

YC Partners Diana Hu and Michael Seibel discuss another great example of this: DoorDash.

Even though the team was a technical group of Stanford engineering students and MBAs, they built the MVP with a tech stack of Google Drive to upload menus, a simple HTML/CSS website, a Google Form to take orders, and Find My Friends as their dispatch system to track drivers.

Diana comments:

“They could have done the fancy thing and build out a dynamic site with real-time tracking, but the founders were very pragmatic. That was not the hardest thing to prove.”

Usually the hardest thing to prove is that your product is something people want.

Video source: @ycombinator (2024) - Startup Archive
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Saltlight Capital on Roblox $RBLX US

Thesis: Roblox redefines gaming by empowering developers and creators with a vast audience and cross-platform accessibility, poised to unlock new revenue streams through advertising while reshaping the industry

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/OkSRa5JDXH
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⁠Startup Archive
Naval Ravikant on the most valuable advice he’s received

When asked about the best advice he’s ever received, Naval says he first ignored it.

“It's the same one that everyone who's been in the business for a long time and has a lot of gray hairs tells you… whether it's Warren Buffett telling you about public investing or whether it's an experienced venture capitalist telling you about private investing… They'll all tell you, ‘It’s the people, stupid.’”

Naval urges startup founders to look for three qualities in a partner: intelligence, energy and integrity.

“You need all three. You can't compromise on any one of them. Otherwise you'll end up with either someone who's not smart (which does you no good) or someone who's not hardworking (which also does you no good) or the worst case is you end up with a smart, hardworking crook who ends up working against your interests.”

Video source: @gigaom (2010)
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