Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $IIIV has reported the purchase of ~$2.1M of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 39%.
This is the first insider purchase we have seen at the company in over a year.
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RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $IIIV has reported the purchase of ~$2.1M of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 39%.
This is the first insider purchase we have seen at the company in over a year.
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Offshore
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Capital Employed
Microcap fraudsters - oh dear. Lots of interesting responses on this short thesis.
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Microcap fraudsters - oh dear. Lots of interesting responses on this short thesis.
NEW SHORT: ASP Isotopes $ASPI
ASPI has all the makings of the next nuclear meltdown.
-Failed Tech from 20 years ago
-Infamous “Microcap Fraudsters” Honig & Stetson involved
-Paid Stock Promotion
-Some South African Subsidiaries Suspiciously Missing
We are Short $ASPI https://t.co/ypn55Qu4hn tweet
Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artemis on Sandoz $SDZ SW
Thesis: Sandoz is primed for growth with its biosimilar portfolio, capitalizing on expiring biologic exclusivity and commanding premium pricing in a low-competition market
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/ep7NkIHaB8
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Artemis on Sandoz $SDZ SW
Thesis: Sandoz is primed for growth with its biosimilar portfolio, capitalizing on expiring biologic exclusivity and commanding premium pricing in a low-competition market
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/ep7NkIHaB8
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Hidden Value Gems
LVMH is down 19% YTD, still not too cheap, close to 20x fwd PE, but reasonable assuming luxury recovery, high ROIC/margins and its moat.
At what level would you buy it without any further thinking?
$MC.PA #LVMH
- I already own it
- Buying it now
- Not my type of business
- Under €500
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LVMH is down 19% YTD, still not too cheap, close to 20x fwd PE, but reasonable assuming luxury recovery, high ROIC/margins and its moat.
At what level would you buy it without any further thinking?
$MC.PA #LVMH
- I already own it
- Buying it now
- Not my type of business
- Under €500
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
Anyone looked at $REAL ?
Seems like the rich are more cautious with their money too.
Still a loss-making business, but sales growing faster than at the luxury peers and the company is approaching breakeven. https://t.co/DYR80yp1Kv
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Anyone looked at $REAL ?
Seems like the rich are more cautious with their money too.
Still a loss-making business, but sales growing faster than at the luxury peers and the company is approaching breakeven. https://t.co/DYR80yp1Kv
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan on Novonesis $NSISB DC
Thesis: Novonesis transforms industries with sustainable biosolutions, leveraging innovation and cost synergies for long-term growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/piEkI0USos
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Artisan on Novonesis $NSISB DC
Thesis: Novonesis transforms industries with sustainable biosolutions, leveraging innovation and cost synergies for long-term growth
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/piEkI0USos
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Offshore
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Startup Archive
Sam Altman on the biggest mistake startup CEOs make when scaling a company
“When you’re a Seed or Series A company, you spend a huge amount of effort recruiting, but almost no effort retaining talent — and that is [the right strategy] at the beginning. But if you don’t shift to viewing retaining talent as much of your job as recruiting talent, you eventually have some level of a disaster on your hands.”
Sam recalls Mark Zuckerberg speaking at Y Combinator and saying he only hires people he’d report to if the roles were reversed. Sam reflects on this:
“If you’re hiring people that are that good — which you should be doing — they have as many opportunities as you do… And so if you don’t make the role good enough that you yourself would stay in it, then you have a hard time retaining your best people for a long period of time.”
Sam gives three pieces of tactical advice for CEOs who want to retain their best people:
1. Spend one-on-one time with your best people
“The thing that your best 5-10 people crave the most is time with you, the CEO. And that is something that as people get busier, they spend less and less time on. Some of the best CEOs in our portfolio, every month they will take out for a one-on-one dinner or drinks or something each of their best 10 people. This is a huge time commitment. If you think about it, you only get 30 dinner slots in a month. It’s a really big thing to do. But I think it actually works because that is the thing these people really crave… They want you to ask them what you think they should be doing and listen to them and have a personal connection. That’s super important.”
2. Continually give them more responsibility
“I think if you stop giving people more responsibility, they will eventually leave. If they get to take on new tasks every year or additional tasks every year, they’re happier.”
3. Proactively re-up their compensation
“I think most founders are very bad about proactively re-upping — to the level that they should — their top 5-10 lieutenants.”
Video source: @khoslaventures (2016)
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Sam Altman on the biggest mistake startup CEOs make when scaling a company
“When you’re a Seed or Series A company, you spend a huge amount of effort recruiting, but almost no effort retaining talent — and that is [the right strategy] at the beginning. But if you don’t shift to viewing retaining talent as much of your job as recruiting talent, you eventually have some level of a disaster on your hands.”
Sam recalls Mark Zuckerberg speaking at Y Combinator and saying he only hires people he’d report to if the roles were reversed. Sam reflects on this:
“If you’re hiring people that are that good — which you should be doing — they have as many opportunities as you do… And so if you don’t make the role good enough that you yourself would stay in it, then you have a hard time retaining your best people for a long period of time.”
Sam gives three pieces of tactical advice for CEOs who want to retain their best people:
1. Spend one-on-one time with your best people
“The thing that your best 5-10 people crave the most is time with you, the CEO. And that is something that as people get busier, they spend less and less time on. Some of the best CEOs in our portfolio, every month they will take out for a one-on-one dinner or drinks or something each of their best 10 people. This is a huge time commitment. If you think about it, you only get 30 dinner slots in a month. It’s a really big thing to do. But I think it actually works because that is the thing these people really crave… They want you to ask them what you think they should be doing and listen to them and have a personal connection. That’s super important.”
2. Continually give them more responsibility
“I think if you stop giving people more responsibility, they will eventually leave. If they get to take on new tasks every year or additional tasks every year, they’re happier.”
3. Proactively re-up their compensation
“I think most founders are very bad about proactively re-upping — to the level that they should — their top 5-10 lieutenants.”
Video source: @khoslaventures (2016)
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
3 months ago I stated:
“Today at $3,618.86💵 $BKNG appears to be a decent consideration for investment”
Since then, $BKNG shares rallied +44% ✅
As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽
“As you can see, $BKNG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >19x earnings, a valuation below both its current & 3-year mean (allowing for slight multiple compression, an added layer of a margin of safety)
Also, $BKNG EPS growth rate ( >10%) more than justifies a >20x multiple”
$BKNG has plenty room for margin expansion💰
____
While a rapid appreciation in share price can be gratifying, it's often counterintuitive for long-term investors
Ideally, I prefer to see these high-quality businesses trade at attractive valuations for an extended period, allowing for the accumulation of shares at a more favorable price
This enables us to build a larger position in a company we believe in, ultimately increasing our potential for long-term returns
________
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $BKNG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.75x
•3-Year Mean: 21.24x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.63%
•3-Year Mean: 4.79%
As you can see, $BKNG appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share & ~17% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $BKNG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.33B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.36B
$BKNG has a great balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 8.41x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 33.3%
•2020: 2.7%
•2021: 14.2%
•2022: 29.1%
•2023: 47.3%
•LTM: 48.4%
$BKNG has strong ROIC, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $6.79B
•2023: $21.37B
•CAGR: 12.14%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.22B
•2023: $7.00B
•CAGR: 12.16%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $41.72
•2023: $152.22
•CAGR: 13.81%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 52.41M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 35.04M
By reducing its shares outstanding 33%, $BKNG increased its EPS by 50% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS & ~17% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $BKNG has to grow earnings at a 9.88% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be just more than (9.88%) required growth rate:
2024E: $175.64 (15.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $201.51 (14.7% YoY)
2026E: $236.96 (17.6% YoY)
$BKNG has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $BKNG ends 2026 with $236.96 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
21x P/E: $4,976.16💵 … ~15.5% CAGR
20x P/E: $4,739.20💵 … ~13.1% CAGR
19x P/E: $4,502.24💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
18x P/E: $4,265.28💵 … ~8.2% CAGR
17x P/E: $4,028.32💵 … ~5.6% CAGR
As you can see, $BKNG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >19x earnings, a valuation below both its current & 3-year mean (allowing for slight multiple compression, an added layer of a margin of safety)
Also, $BKNG EPS growth rate ( >10%) more than justifies a >20x multiple
Today at $3,618.86💵 $BKNG appears to be a decent consideration for investment
I’d consider $BKNG a great purchase closer to $3,400 (~18.50x multiple) roughly 6% below today’s share price or at $3,400.00💵
This is where I can reasonably expect ~11% CAGR assuming a conservative 18x 2026 earnings estimates, a large margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢[...]
3 months ago I stated:
“Today at $3,618.86💵 $BKNG appears to be a decent consideration for investment”
Since then, $BKNG shares rallied +44% ✅
As I suggested in the post attached below👇🏽
“As you can see, $BKNG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >19x earnings, a valuation below both its current & 3-year mean (allowing for slight multiple compression, an added layer of a margin of safety)
Also, $BKNG EPS growth rate ( >10%) more than justifies a >20x multiple”
$BKNG has plenty room for margin expansion💰
____
While a rapid appreciation in share price can be gratifying, it's often counterintuitive for long-term investors
Ideally, I prefer to see these high-quality businesses trade at attractive valuations for an extended period, allowing for the accumulation of shares at a more favorable price
This enables us to build a larger position in a company we believe in, ultimately increasing our potential for long-term returns
________
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $BKNG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.75x
•3-Year Mean: 21.24x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.63%
•3-Year Mean: 4.79%
As you can see, $BKNG appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% MORE in earnings per share & ~17% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $BKNG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.33B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.36B
$BKNG has a great balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 8.41x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 33.3%
•2020: 2.7%
•2021: 14.2%
•2022: 29.1%
•2023: 47.3%
•LTM: 48.4%
$BKNG has strong ROIC, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $6.79B
•2023: $21.37B
•CAGR: 12.14%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.22B
•2023: $7.00B
•CAGR: 12.16%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $41.72
•2023: $152.22
•CAGR: 13.81%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 52.41M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 35.04M
By reducing its shares outstanding 33%, $BKNG increased its EPS by 50% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% MORE in EPS & ~17% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $BKNG has to grow earnings at a 9.88% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be just more than (9.88%) required growth rate:
2024E: $175.64 (15.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $201.51 (14.7% YoY)
2026E: $236.96 (17.6% YoY)
$BKNG has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $BKNG ends 2026 with $236.96 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
21x P/E: $4,976.16💵 … ~15.5% CAGR
20x P/E: $4,739.20💵 … ~13.1% CAGR
19x P/E: $4,502.24💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
18x P/E: $4,265.28💵 … ~8.2% CAGR
17x P/E: $4,028.32💵 … ~5.6% CAGR
As you can see, $BKNG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >19x earnings, a valuation below both its current & 3-year mean (allowing for slight multiple compression, an added layer of a margin of safety)
Also, $BKNG EPS growth rate ( >10%) more than justifies a >20x multiple
Today at $3,618.86💵 $BKNG appears to be a decent consideration for investment
I’d consider $BKNG a great purchase closer to $3,400 (~18.50x multiple) roughly 6% below today’s share price or at $3,400.00💵
This is where I can reasonably expect ~11% CAGR assuming a conservative 18x 2026 earnings estimates, a large margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢[...]