⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $ASML 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.32x
•10-Year Mean: 31.07x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.41%
•10-Year Mean: 3.11%

As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~13% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $5.57B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.24B

$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 31x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 17.5%
•2020: 21.6%
•2021: 43.8%
•2022: 48.0%
•2023: 48.7%
•LTM: 38.0%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 49.0%
•2022: 59.4%
•2023: 70.4%
•LTM: 49.2%

$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.22B
•2023: $30.42B
•CAGR: 15.46%

FREE CASH FLOW*
• $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isn’t necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the company’s value

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $3.17
•2023: $21.65
•CAGR: 21.18%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: $426.40M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 393.80M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.6%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.2% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 51.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 30.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~13% MORE in EPS & 10% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a 13.61% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.61%) required growth rate:

2024E: $20.22 (-4.0% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $24.66 (21.9% YoY)
2026E: $31.31 (27.0% YoY)
2027E: $38.22 (22.8% YoY)

$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out. HOWEVER, let’s be conservative & assume $ASML ends 2027 with $35.00*** in EPS (~8% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:

29x P/E: $1,015💵 … ~15.2% CAGR

28x P/E: $980💵 … ~13.9% CAGR

27x P/E: $945💵 … ~12.6% CAGR

26x P/E: $910💵 … ~11.2% CAGR

As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 26x EPS (below its 10-year mean, current multiple, & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate)

Today at $672💵 $ASML appears to be a strong consideration for investment, albeit with extreme volatility

Additionally, we have some margin of safety by relying on a lower multiple, lower growth rate

As I’ve stated before, given its volatility, however, it’s wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the short-term 💵

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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https://t.co/Uk2EU8RG0G
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Vinod Khosla and Sam Altman on how much equity to give your first 10 employees

In the early days of Sun Microsystems, Vinod Khosla recruited some of the best engineers in the world: Andy Bechtolsheim, Bill Joy, and Eric Schmidt.

Sam Altman asks Vinod how he convinced these people to join him when Sun was just a small startup.

Vinod replies:

“I see this as a major problem nowadays. People aren’t allocating equity widely enough. I think among the first three or four founders at Sun, we kept less than half of the common. The total was something like 25-27% for the founders, an equal or slightly larger chunk for everybody else we would hire, and then investors had like 40% after the A round. In retrospect, that was a very good idea.”

When his son Neil founded the AI startup Curai Health, Vinod advised him to keep only 15% of the company rather than 45% and try to hire one or two people at 15%. Then he advised him to leave 30% of the pool for non-founders.

Vinod explains his reasoning:

“Even though they’re coming in later and they didn’t come up with the idea, they will be incredible resources, especially as magnets to attract other people. If you believe a company becomes the people it hires, then your task becomes attracting the best people, and selling depends on magnets.”

This what Vinod did with Bill Joy. Vinod gave Bill half his equity even though Bill joined later:

“Bill Joy was an incredible magnet. People wanted to work with Bill and Andy. And even if Bill didn’t do a day of work, he was more than worth it because he helped attract Eric Schmidt. I don’t think Eric would have come work for me as a 25 year old.”

Sam Altman agrees on Vinod’s philosophy of maximizing the size of the pie rather than your ownership percentage:

“I think this is the most important piece of advice we’ve talked about among many important things today. Being super generous with early employee equity and getting founder-quality people in the first 10 employees—I think all the evidence is on the side of doing this, and yet almost no one does. So there’s a huge edge if you’re willing to do it.”

Vinod argues it’s the “single-most important thing to do in the first six months of a company.” The best people can start their own companies. If you want them to join your company, you have to be generous with equity.

Video source: @ycombinator (2019)
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