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Stock Analysis Compilation
TAMIM Fund on MDU Resources Group $MDU US
Thesis: MDU’s strategic divestitures and focus on regulated energy services, coupled with strong tailwinds from infrastructure investments, position it well for stable growth and enhanced shareholder value
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/vEX6XxJLj5
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TAMIM Fund on MDU Resources Group $MDU US
Thesis: MDU’s strategic divestitures and focus on regulated energy services, coupled with strong tailwinds from infrastructure investments, position it well for stable growth and enhanced shareholder value
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/vEX6XxJLj5
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $AMAT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 17.69x
•5-Year Mean: 17.81x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.60%
•5-Year Mean: 5.88%
As you can see, $AMAT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~1% MORE in earnings per share & ~21% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMAT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $9.47B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.46B
$AMAT has a great balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating, & 35x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 24.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 43.2%
•2023: 34.2%
•LTM: 31.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.9%
•2020: 38.5%
•2021: 51.6%
•2022: 53.4%
•2023: 48.0%
•LTM: 40.6%
$AMAT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $9.07B
•2024: $27.18B
•CAGR: 11.60%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.56B
•2024: $7.49B
•CAGR: 16.98%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.07
•2024: $8.65
•CAGR: 23.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.83B
By reducing its shares outstanding 32%, $AMAT increased its EPS by 47% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 28.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~1% MORE in EPS & ~21% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMAT has to grow earnings at an 8.85% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (8.85%) required growth rate:
2025E: $9.54 (10.3% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $10.77 (12.8% YoY)
2027E: $11.94 (10.9% YoY)
$AMAT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $AMAT ends 2027 with $11.94 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $238.80💵 … ~17.1% CAGR
20x P/E: $214.92💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
18x P/E: $191.04💵 … ~9.3% CAGR
16x P/E: $199.62💵 … ~5.1% CAGR
As you can see, $AMAT appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >20z earnings, a multiple well above its 10-year mean & on the higher end of its historical range
Of course demand for semiconductor equipment & materials is expected to see a huge increase over the next several years & this has gotten priced in, to an extent
So $AMAT could justify its current multiple if estimates continue to be fairly aggressive & the company executes (as they have over the last few quarters)
However, those looking to accumulate today leave themselves with no margin of safety — and we know how volatile semiconductors can be during times of uncertainty
Today at $169💵 $AMAT appears to be fully valued
I’d consider $AMAT a great opportunity closer to $150💵 or ~11% below today’s price .. where I can reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming 17x earnings
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $AMAT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 17.69x
•5-Year Mean: 17.81x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.60%
•5-Year Mean: 5.88%
As you can see, $AMAT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~1% MORE in earnings per share & ~21% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMAT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $9.47B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.46B
$AMAT has a great balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating, & 35x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 24.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 43.2%
•2023: 34.2%
•LTM: 31.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.9%
•2020: 38.5%
•2021: 51.6%
•2022: 53.4%
•2023: 48.0%
•LTM: 40.6%
$AMAT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $9.07B
•2024: $27.18B
•CAGR: 11.60%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.56B
•2024: $7.49B
•CAGR: 16.98%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.07
•2024: $8.65
•CAGR: 23.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.83B
By reducing its shares outstanding 32%, $AMAT increased its EPS by 47% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 28.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~1% MORE in EPS & ~21% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMAT has to grow earnings at an 8.85% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (8.85%) required growth rate:
2025E: $9.54 (10.3% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $10.77 (12.8% YoY)
2027E: $11.94 (10.9% YoY)
$AMAT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $AMAT ends 2027 with $11.94 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $238.80💵 … ~17.1% CAGR
20x P/E: $214.92💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
18x P/E: $191.04💵 … ~9.3% CAGR
16x P/E: $199.62💵 … ~5.1% CAGR
As you can see, $AMAT appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >20z earnings, a multiple well above its 10-year mean & on the higher end of its historical range
Of course demand for semiconductor equipment & materials is expected to see a huge increase over the next several years & this has gotten priced in, to an extent
So $AMAT could justify its current multiple if estimates continue to be fairly aggressive & the company executes (as they have over the last few quarters)
However, those looking to accumulate today leave themselves with no margin of safety — and we know how volatile semiconductors can be during times of uncertainty
Today at $169💵 $AMAT appears to be fully valued
I’d consider $AMAT a great opportunity closer to $150💵 or ~11% below today’s price .. where I can reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming 17x earnings
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
TCW on AT&T $T US
Thesis: AT&T’s strategic refocus on its core telecom business, combined with strong leadership and significant investments in digital infrastructure, positions it for improved profitability and shareholder value
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/OtGo68DviZ
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TCW on AT&T $T US
Thesis: AT&T’s strategic refocus on its core telecom business, combined with strong leadership and significant investments in digital infrastructure, positions it for improved profitability and shareholder value
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/OtGo68DviZ
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AkhenOsiris
Something about OPEC and Gen AI
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Something about OPEC and Gen AI
OPEC Sec Gen Al Ghais: Oil And Gas Are A Gift Of God - LiveSquawktweet
AkhenOsiris
$AMZN
JPMorgan sees solid online holiday sales growth, Amazon still top pick.
JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth expects solid online holiday season sales growth of 7.5% year-over-year heading toward Thanksgiving and the Cyber 5 weekend, below last year's up 9.8%, but suggesting continued strong share gains online. Third party estimates suggest an e-commerce growth range of 7%-10% while total holiday spending, online and offline, third party estimates range from up 2.0%-3.5% year-over-year growth, below last year's 3.9% growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says Amazon (AMZN) remains its best idea in internet. It believes U.S. e-commerce penetration of adjusted retail sales could nearly double from 22% today to 40%-plus long term. With a shorter holiday season, Amazon, Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are all running early promotional cycles, which should support demand & ease stress on retail networks during the holiday season.
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$AMZN
JPMorgan sees solid online holiday sales growth, Amazon still top pick.
JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth expects solid online holiday season sales growth of 7.5% year-over-year heading toward Thanksgiving and the Cyber 5 weekend, below last year's up 9.8%, but suggesting continued strong share gains online. Third party estimates suggest an e-commerce growth range of 7%-10% while total holiday spending, online and offline, third party estimates range from up 2.0%-3.5% year-over-year growth, below last year's 3.9% growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says Amazon (AMZN) remains its best idea in internet. It believes U.S. e-commerce penetration of adjusted retail sales could nearly double from 22% today to 40%-plus long term. With a shorter holiday season, Amazon, Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are all running early promotional cycles, which should support demand & ease stress on retail networks during the holiday season.
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App Economy Insights
$NVDA NVIDIA Q3 FY25 (October quarter).
• Revenue +17% Q/Q to $35.1B ($2.0B beat).
• Gross margin 75% (-1pp Q/Q).
• Operating margin 62% (flat Q/Q).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.81 ($0.06 beat).
Q4 FY25 guidance:
• Revenue ~$37.5B ($1.5B beat). https://t.co/Ww5gYfBsD0
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$NVDA NVIDIA Q3 FY25 (October quarter).
• Revenue +17% Q/Q to $35.1B ($2.0B beat).
• Gross margin 75% (-1pp Q/Q).
• Operating margin 62% (flat Q/Q).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.81 ($0.06 beat).
Q4 FY25 guidance:
• Revenue ~$37.5B ($1.5B beat). https://t.co/Ww5gYfBsD0
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Investing visuals
NVIDIA $NVDA Q3'24 earnings:
🔹Revenue: $35.1 Bln vs est. $33.1Bln (6% beat🟢)
🔹Earnings per share: $0.78 vs est. $0.75 (4% beat🟢)
Initial stock reaction 📈
Down -2% 🔴
Updated one-pager will be out tomorrow🫡
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NVIDIA $NVDA Q3'24 earnings:
🔹Revenue: $35.1 Bln vs est. $33.1Bln (6% beat🟢)
🔹Earnings per share: $0.78 vs est. $0.75 (4% beat🟢)
Initial stock reaction 📈
Down -2% 🔴
Updated one-pager will be out tomorrow🫡
All eyes are on NVIDIA $NVDA reporting earnings tomorrow after hours.
Here's a quick pre-earnings overview 🔍👇
🔹Est. Revenue: $33.1B (+83%)
🔹Est. EPS: $0.75 (+85%) https://t.co/MAcrRCCNy8 tweet