Offshore
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Startup Archive
Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang on the “common startup failure mode” of hiring too many people
Alexandr reflects on the mistake of rapidly hiring in 2021 and 2022 to grow into it’s $7.3 billion valuation before having to lay off 20% of its workforce in 2023.
“It feels very logical that more people equals better results and more stuff being done. But if you have a very high-performing team, it’s nearly impossible to grow it dramatically without losing all of that performance. A high-performing team is almost like this very intricate sculpture. There’s this interplay between all the people the team. If you add a bunch of people to that — even if the people are great — it just screws the whole thing up… You want to keep those high-performing teams intact as long as you possibly can.”
He also reflects on a common mistake he sees founders make:
“I think a common startup failure mode is that you have something that works but everybody in the company is really junior. So then things are scaling but all the wheels are falling off, and your investors tell you, ‘Hey, you should hire some executives.’ So you go through the exec searches, you bring in an exec, and then you give the exec a lot of rope, and your exec says, ‘Hey, we need to hire a massive team to hit our results.’ And you’re like, ‘I’m pretty inexperienced. You seem really experienced. Let’s do what you say.’ And the reality is that almost always results in ruin.”
Alexandr instead recommends letting executives get steeped in how the company works before making sweeping changes to the company. He also urges founders to have a more realistic view of what an executive can do for your business.
“There’s a founder fantasy, which is: ‘Oh, I’m going to hire a bunch of incredible execs. They’ll do all the stuff I don’t want to do. And I’m going to be able to sit back and watch the machine work.’ That’s also extremely realistic because the reason you are a good founder CEO is because you make very good decisions over an extended period of time. And to pull yourself out of the decision-making loops would be kind of crazy.”
Video source: @a16z (2024)
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Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang on the “common startup failure mode” of hiring too many people
Alexandr reflects on the mistake of rapidly hiring in 2021 and 2022 to grow into it’s $7.3 billion valuation before having to lay off 20% of its workforce in 2023.
“It feels very logical that more people equals better results and more stuff being done. But if you have a very high-performing team, it’s nearly impossible to grow it dramatically without losing all of that performance. A high-performing team is almost like this very intricate sculpture. There’s this interplay between all the people the team. If you add a bunch of people to that — even if the people are great — it just screws the whole thing up… You want to keep those high-performing teams intact as long as you possibly can.”
He also reflects on a common mistake he sees founders make:
“I think a common startup failure mode is that you have something that works but everybody in the company is really junior. So then things are scaling but all the wheels are falling off, and your investors tell you, ‘Hey, you should hire some executives.’ So you go through the exec searches, you bring in an exec, and then you give the exec a lot of rope, and your exec says, ‘Hey, we need to hire a massive team to hit our results.’ And you’re like, ‘I’m pretty inexperienced. You seem really experienced. Let’s do what you say.’ And the reality is that almost always results in ruin.”
Alexandr instead recommends letting executives get steeped in how the company works before making sweeping changes to the company. He also urges founders to have a more realistic view of what an executive can do for your business.
“There’s a founder fantasy, which is: ‘Oh, I’m going to hire a bunch of incredible execs. They’ll do all the stuff I don’t want to do. And I’m going to be able to sit back and watch the machine work.’ That’s also extremely realistic because the reason you are a good founder CEO is because you make very good decisions over an extended period of time. And to pull yourself out of the decision-making loops would be kind of crazy.”
Video source: @a16z (2024)
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Quality Compounders With Reasonable Valuations & Forecasted EPS Growth Est💸
📸 Meta Platforms
•NTM P/E: 22.97x*
•2025 EPS: $25.32 (+12.0%)*
•2026 EPS: $28.77 (+13.6%)
•2027 EPS: $32.87 (+14.2%)
☁️ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
•NTM P/E: 20.81x*
•2025 EPS: $9.00 (+12.0%)*
•2026 EPS: $10.25 (+13.8%)
•2027 EPS: $11.78 (+14.9%)
🖨️ ASML Holding $ASML
•NTM P/E: 26.91x*
•2025 EPS: $24.65 (+21.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $31.31 (+27.0%)
•2027 EPS: $38.22 (+22.8%)
📦 MercadoLibre $MELI
•NTM P/E: 50.84x*
•2025 EPS: $46.33 (+38.2%)*
•2026 EPS: $63.04 (+36.1%)
•2027 EPS: $74.71 (+18.5%)
🧬 Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO
•NTM P/E: 22.30x*
•2025 EPS: $23.56 (+8.6%)*
•2026 EPS: $26.36 (+11.9%)
•2027 EPS: $30.01 (+13.9%)
📀 Lam Research $LRCX
•NTM P/E: 19.21x*
•2025 EPS: $3.53 (+17.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $4.23 (+18.7%)
•2027 EPS: $4.83 (+14.2%)
🧾 PayPal $PYPL
•NTM P/E: 17.91x*
•2025 EPS: $4.90 (+7.1%)*
•2026 EPS: $5.46 (+11.4%)
•2027 EPS: $6.72 (+23.2%)
💳 Visa $V
•NTM P/E: 30.47x*
•2025 EPS: $11.20 (+11.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $12.65 (+12.9%)
•2027 EPS: $14.40 (+13.9%)
🔬 Novo Nordisk $NVO
•NTM P/E: 27.25x*
•2025 EPS: $3.95 (+22.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $4.69 (+17.7%)
•2027 EPS: $5.08 (+7.4%)
✈️ Booking Holdings $BKNG
•NTM P/E: 24.25x*
•2025 EPS: $209.01 (+14.3%)*
•2026 EPS: $240.77 (+15.2%)
•2027 EPS: $278.86 (+15.8%)
#stocks #investing
___
**data from tikr
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10 Quality Compounders With Reasonable Valuations & Forecasted EPS Growth Est💸
📸 Meta Platforms
•NTM P/E: 22.97x*
•2025 EPS: $25.32 (+12.0%)*
•2026 EPS: $28.77 (+13.6%)
•2027 EPS: $32.87 (+14.2%)
☁️ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
•NTM P/E: 20.81x*
•2025 EPS: $9.00 (+12.0%)*
•2026 EPS: $10.25 (+13.8%)
•2027 EPS: $11.78 (+14.9%)
🖨️ ASML Holding $ASML
•NTM P/E: 26.91x*
•2025 EPS: $24.65 (+21.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $31.31 (+27.0%)
•2027 EPS: $38.22 (+22.8%)
📦 MercadoLibre $MELI
•NTM P/E: 50.84x*
•2025 EPS: $46.33 (+38.2%)*
•2026 EPS: $63.04 (+36.1%)
•2027 EPS: $74.71 (+18.5%)
🧬 Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO
•NTM P/E: 22.30x*
•2025 EPS: $23.56 (+8.6%)*
•2026 EPS: $26.36 (+11.9%)
•2027 EPS: $30.01 (+13.9%)
📀 Lam Research $LRCX
•NTM P/E: 19.21x*
•2025 EPS: $3.53 (+17.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $4.23 (+18.7%)
•2027 EPS: $4.83 (+14.2%)
🧾 PayPal $PYPL
•NTM P/E: 17.91x*
•2025 EPS: $4.90 (+7.1%)*
•2026 EPS: $5.46 (+11.4%)
•2027 EPS: $6.72 (+23.2%)
💳 Visa $V
•NTM P/E: 30.47x*
•2025 EPS: $11.20 (+11.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $12.65 (+12.9%)
•2027 EPS: $14.40 (+13.9%)
🔬 Novo Nordisk $NVO
•NTM P/E: 27.25x*
•2025 EPS: $3.95 (+22.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $4.69 (+17.7%)
•2027 EPS: $5.08 (+7.4%)
✈️ Booking Holdings $BKNG
•NTM P/E: 24.25x*
•2025 EPS: $209.01 (+14.3%)*
•2026 EPS: $240.77 (+15.2%)
•2027 EPS: $278.86 (+15.8%)
#stocks #investing
___
**data from tikr
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Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
Who said energy drinks are boring?
Monster $MNST has compounded at 25% annually since going public, but Celsius $CELH massively outperformed $MNST over the past 5 years.
Can Celsius become the next Monster?🤔 https://t.co/sLJ9bCwU0M
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Who said energy drinks are boring?
Monster $MNST has compounded at 25% annually since going public, but Celsius $CELH massively outperformed $MNST over the past 5 years.
Can Celsius become the next Monster?🤔 https://t.co/sLJ9bCwU0M
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $ARRY has reported the purchase of ~$100K of the company's stock.
This is the first inside buy we have seen him make in over 2 years. https://t.co/dkXllGVlsf
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RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $ARRY has reported the purchase of ~$100K of the company's stock.
This is the first inside buy we have seen him make in over 2 years. https://t.co/dkXllGVlsf
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Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
Fellow investors, I need your help!
Many have asked to include valuation in the stock battle format, fair point! But I’m torn between two options:
Option A: Add a valuation section to the current format, but at the risk of an information overload and a cramped layout.
Option B: Replace an existing metric with valuation, but which one adds the least value to you and should be replaced?
Let me know in the comments!
(there is a poll in there too)
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Fellow investors, I need your help!
Many have asked to include valuation in the stock battle format, fair point! But I’m torn between two options:
Option A: Add a valuation section to the current format, but at the risk of an information overload and a cramped layout.
Option B: Replace an existing metric with valuation, but which one adds the least value to you and should be replaced?
Let me know in the comments!
(there is a poll in there too)
Palantir $PLTR vs Crowdstrike $CRWD: two top notch software companies shaping the future 💎👌
Who will outperform over the next 10 years? https://t.co/xNQ7BnXP6Z tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Investing in retail is tough $TGT
Slim margins & heavy competition … not the best recipe for long-term shareholders 🧐
#stocks #investing $WMT $AMZN https://t.co/dv6DGofHeK
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Investing in retail is tough $TGT
Slim margins & heavy competition … not the best recipe for long-term shareholders 🧐
#stocks #investing $WMT $AMZN https://t.co/dv6DGofHeK
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Offshore
Video
Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
Small Cap Opportunity with Rising Economic Earnings
ROIC, Economic Earnings and WACC (Tutorial)
$CNXN https://t.co/dX0eadPQju
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Small Cap Opportunity with Rising Economic Earnings
ROIC, Economic Earnings and WACC (Tutorial)
$CNXN https://t.co/dX0eadPQju
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Hedge funds' best ideas #19 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)
Includes links to the Q3 letters from Alger / Ariel Investments / Clearbridge / Deep Sail Capital / Ennismore / Gator Capital / Harding Loevner / Longriver Partners Fund / Maran Partners / Miller Value Fund / Munro / Oakmark / Vulcan Value Partners
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Hedge funds' best ideas #19 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)
Includes links to the Q3 letters from Alger / Ariel Investments / Clearbridge / Deep Sail Capital / Ennismore / Gator Capital / Harding Loevner / Longriver Partners Fund / Maran Partners / Miller Value Fund / Munro / Oakmark / Vulcan Value Partners
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Alger on MercadoLibre $MELI US
Thesis: MercadoLibre’s strong network effects, expanding fintech services, and robust market leadership make it a formidable player in Latin America’s digital economy, driving significant growth potential.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/cIwbNSAVfe
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Alger on MercadoLibre $MELI US
Thesis: MercadoLibre’s strong network effects, expanding fintech services, and robust market leadership make it a formidable player in Latin America’s digital economy, driving significant growth potential.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/cIwbNSAVfe
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Legendary VC Bill Gurley on why “TAM conservatism” often hurts investors
“I’ve found that TAM conservatism hurts you more than it helps you as an investor. If you feel like something is super disruptive and it’s unlocking things, your optionality to build on top of that is going to be pretty spectacular.”
Bill recalls NYU professor Aswath Damodaran’s conclusion that Uber was worth only $5.9 billion given the size of the taxi market.
Bill responded in a blog post titled “How to Miss By a Mile”:
“There are multiple reasons why this is a flawed assumption. When you materially improve an offering, and create new features, functions, experiences, price points, and even enable new use cases, you can materially expand the market in the process. The past can be a poor guide for the future if the future offering is materially different than the past.”
To be fair to Aswath, Bill already knew that Uber was 20x the size of the taxi market in San Francisco at the time.
But Bill cites a McKinsey study as another classic example. In 1980, they predicted that cell phone penetration in the U.S. by 2000 would be 900,000 units. This turned out to be less than 1% of the actual figure, 109 million.
As Box CEO Aaron Levie put it:
“Sizing the market for a disruptor based on an incumbent’s market is like sizing the car industry off how many horses there were in 1910.”
Today Uber’s market capitalization is north of $150 billion—almost 30x Aswath’s estimate.
Video source: @tferriss (2023)
tweet
Legendary VC Bill Gurley on why “TAM conservatism” often hurts investors
“I’ve found that TAM conservatism hurts you more than it helps you as an investor. If you feel like something is super disruptive and it’s unlocking things, your optionality to build on top of that is going to be pretty spectacular.”
Bill recalls NYU professor Aswath Damodaran’s conclusion that Uber was worth only $5.9 billion given the size of the taxi market.
Bill responded in a blog post titled “How to Miss By a Mile”:
“There are multiple reasons why this is a flawed assumption. When you materially improve an offering, and create new features, functions, experiences, price points, and even enable new use cases, you can materially expand the market in the process. The past can be a poor guide for the future if the future offering is materially different than the past.”
To be fair to Aswath, Bill already knew that Uber was 20x the size of the taxi market in San Francisco at the time.
But Bill cites a McKinsey study as another classic example. In 1980, they predicted that cell phone penetration in the U.S. by 2000 would be 900,000 units. This turned out to be less than 1% of the actual figure, 109 million.
As Box CEO Aaron Levie put it:
“Sizing the market for a disruptor based on an incumbent’s market is like sizing the car industry off how many horses there were in 1910.”
Today Uber’s market capitalization is north of $150 billion—almost 30x Aswath’s estimate.
Video source: @tferriss (2023)
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