Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
An interesting interview with a retail analyst by @barronsonline who provided 5 reasons why luxury is more challenging than it appears. Highlighted #LVMH as the safest bet.
Discussed a few turnaround cases like $GAP $VSCO $PVH $KTB https://t.co/gMRzgG69lP
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An interesting interview with a retail analyst by @barronsonline who provided 5 reasons why luxury is more challenging than it appears. Highlighted #LVMH as the safest bet.
Discussed a few turnaround cases like $GAP $VSCO $PVH $KTB https://t.co/gMRzgG69lP
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Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Ennismore on D’Ieteren Group $DIE BB
Thesis: D’Ieteren’s undervalued stake in Belron, alongside potential catalysts like an IPO and strategic insights from new CEO Carlos Brito, make it a compelling buy trading at just 9x 2025 earnings.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/86GyNByXlI
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Ennismore on D’Ieteren Group $DIE BB
Thesis: D’Ieteren’s undervalued stake in Belron, alongside potential catalysts like an IPO and strategic insights from new CEO Carlos Brito, make it a compelling buy trading at just 9x 2025 earnings.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/86GyNByXlI
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Peter Thiel on how to identify great talent
Peter Thiel is famous for discovering undervalued talent throughout his career. The most well-known example is PayPal, where he recruited people who went on to start companies like YouTube, LinkedIn, Yelp, Affirm, and Yammer. But he also recruited Alex Karp, his former classmate at Stanford Law School, to co-found Palantir with him 2003.
Tyler Cowen asks Thiel what traits he looks for in undiscovered talent that everyone else overlooks. Thiel replies:
“It’s very difficult to reduce it to any single trait. A lot of what you’re looking for are these almost zen-like opposites.”
He gives a few examples:
“You want people who are both really stubborn and really open-minded. That’s a little contradictory. You want people who are sort of really idiosyncratic and really different, but then who can work well together in teams… If you focus too much on one end of it, you tend to get it completely wrong… [I like to look for] these combinations of unusual traits.”
Essentially he looks for idiosyncratic people with combinations of unusual traits that counterbalance those idiosyncrasies.
Video source: @mercatus (2015)
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Peter Thiel on how to identify great talent
Peter Thiel is famous for discovering undervalued talent throughout his career. The most well-known example is PayPal, where he recruited people who went on to start companies like YouTube, LinkedIn, Yelp, Affirm, and Yammer. But he also recruited Alex Karp, his former classmate at Stanford Law School, to co-found Palantir with him 2003.
Tyler Cowen asks Thiel what traits he looks for in undiscovered talent that everyone else overlooks. Thiel replies:
“It’s very difficult to reduce it to any single trait. A lot of what you’re looking for are these almost zen-like opposites.”
He gives a few examples:
“You want people who are both really stubborn and really open-minded. That’s a little contradictory. You want people who are sort of really idiosyncratic and really different, but then who can work well together in teams… If you focus too much on one end of it, you tend to get it completely wrong… [I like to look for] these combinations of unusual traits.”
Essentially he looks for idiosyncratic people with combinations of unusual traits that counterbalance those idiosyncrasies.
Video source: @mercatus (2015)
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Ennismore on Ryanair $RYA LN
Thesis: Ryanair’s robust balance sheet, dominant market position, and aggressive share buybacks set it up for strong cash flow generation, trading at an attractive valuation with durable growth ahead.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/ROjSudE1xn
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Ennismore on Ryanair $RYA LN
Thesis: Ryanair’s robust balance sheet, dominant market position, and aggressive share buybacks set it up for strong cash flow generation, trading at an attractive valuation with durable growth ahead.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/ROjSudE1xn
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Offshore
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Investing visuals
You can pick one to hold for the rest of your life. Would you pick Visa $V or Mastercard $MA? https://t.co/BFYqp8JgH8
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You can pick one to hold for the rest of your life. Would you pick Visa $V or Mastercard $MA? https://t.co/BFYqp8JgH8
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
I have never had a strong conviction on #Vistry but always had a feeling it was oversold. It is not NVR and UK is not US.
But with the stock down so much I think reallity has finally hit it.
The market is no longer believing management’s £1B capital returns and £800m EBIT mid-term target. This is a much more interesting case now.
What do you think? 🤔
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I have never had a strong conviction on #Vistry but always had a feeling it was oversold. It is not NVR and UK is not US.
But with the stock down so much I think reallity has finally hit it.
The market is no longer believing management’s £1B capital returns and £800m EBIT mid-term target. This is a much more interesting case now.
What do you think? 🤔
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $AMAT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 17.69x
•5-Year Mean: 17.81x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.60%
•5-Year Mean: 5.88%
As you can see, $AMAT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~1% MORE in earnings per share & ~21% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMAT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $9.47B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.46B
$AMAT has a great balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating, & 35x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 24.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 43.2%
•2023: 34.2%
•LTM: 31.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.9%
•2020: 38.5%
•2021: 51.6%
•2022: 53.4%
•2023: 48.0%
•LTM: 40.6%
$AMAT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $9.07B
•2024: $27.18B
•CAGR: 11.60%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.56B
•2024: $7.49B
•CAGR: 16.98%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.07
•2024: $8.65
•CAGR: 23.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.83B
By reducing its shares outstanding 32%, $AMAT increased its EPS by 47% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 28.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~1% MORE in EPS & ~21% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMAT has to grow earnings at an 8.85% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (8.85%) required growth rate:
2025E: $9.54 (10.3% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $10.77 (12.8% YoY)
2027E: $11.94 (10.9% YoY)
$AMAT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $AMAT ends 2027 with $11.94 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $238.80💵 … ~17.1% CAGR
20x P/E: $214.92💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
18x P/E: $191.04💵 … ~9.3% CAGR
16x P/E: $199.62💵 … ~5.1% CAGR
As you can see, $AMAT appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >20z earnings, a multiple well above its 10-year mean & on the higher end of its historical range
Of course demand for semiconductor equipment & materials is expected to see a huge increase over the next several years & this has gotten priced in, to an extent
So $AMAT could justify its current multiple if estimates continue to be fairly aggressive & the company executes (as they have over the last few quarters)
However, those looking to accumulate today leave themselves with no margin of safety — and we know how volatile semiconductors can be during times of uncertainty
Today at $169💵 $AMAT appears to be fully valued
I’d consider $AMAT a great opportunity closer to $150💵 or ~11% below today’s price .. where I can reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming 17x earnings
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $AMAT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 17.69x
•5-Year Mean: 17.81x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.60%
•5-Year Mean: 5.88%
As you can see, $AMAT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~1% MORE in earnings per share & ~21% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMAT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $9.47B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.46B
$AMAT has a great balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating, & 35x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 24.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 40.0%
•2022: 43.2%
•2023: 34.2%
•LTM: 31.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.9%
•2020: 38.5%
•2021: 51.6%
•2022: 53.4%
•2023: 48.0%
•LTM: 40.6%
$AMAT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $9.07B
•2024: $27.18B
•CAGR: 11.60%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.56B
•2024: $7.49B
•CAGR: 16.98%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.07
•2024: $8.65
•CAGR: 23.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.83B
By reducing its shares outstanding 32%, $AMAT increased its EPS by 47% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 28.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~1% MORE in EPS & ~21% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $AMAT has to grow earnings at an 8.85% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (8.85%) required growth rate:
2025E: $9.54 (10.3% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $10.77 (12.8% YoY)
2027E: $11.94 (10.9% YoY)
$AMAT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $AMAT ends 2027 with $11.94 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $238.80💵 … ~17.1% CAGR
20x P/E: $214.92💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
18x P/E: $191.04💵 … ~9.3% CAGR
16x P/E: $199.62💵 … ~5.1% CAGR
As you can see, $AMAT appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >20z earnings, a multiple well above its 10-year mean & on the higher end of its historical range
Of course demand for semiconductor equipment & materials is expected to see a huge increase over the next several years & this has gotten priced in, to an extent
So $AMAT could justify its current multiple if estimates continue to be fairly aggressive & the company executes (as they have over the last few quarters)
However, those looking to accumulate today leave themselves with no margin of safety — and we know how volatile semiconductors can be during times of uncertainty
Today at $169💵 $AMAT appears to be fully valued
I’d consider $AMAT a great opportunity closer to $150💵 or ~11% below today’s price .. where I can reasonably expect double-digit CAGR while assuming 17x earnings
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Vulcan Value Partners on CBRE $CBRE US
Thesis: CBRE’s strong performance in recurring revenue streams and signs of recovery in transactional services make it a resilient play, poised to benefit from falling interest rates.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/3ezB9k5qbn
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Vulcan Value Partners on CBRE $CBRE US
Thesis: CBRE’s strong performance in recurring revenue streams and signs of recovery in transactional services make it a resilient play, poised to benefit from falling interest rates.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/3ezB9k5qbn
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Larry Page’s response to Steve Jobs’s critique that Google lacks focus
When asked about Steve Jobs’s critique that Google is doing too many things and lacks focus, Page jokes:
“I mean he was right. He did fine as well.”
But Page does admit Google’s lack of focus is something he worried about. He explains that he chose this path for Google because he wanted to build a company for engineers and entrepreneurs.
“You’re looking at the business benefit you might get [from trying all of these different ideas]. But I also think in terms of motivating ourselves, potential employees, and entrepreneurs. We want to be doing things that are exciting and that are really going to make a difference.”
One of the things that inspired Page to create the Alphabet org structure was the observation that companies—in general—have bad reputations.
“Most people don’t wake up and say ‘Oh, I wish I could go work for a company.’ They do it because they have to… I think that’s something we should work to change.”
This was his goal for Google.
“I think we need to be more ambitious. We’ve got to do things that matter more to people. We’ve got to do fewer things that are zero-sum games, and more things that really cause a lot of benefit.”
Video source: @FortuneMagazine (2015)
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Larry Page’s response to Steve Jobs’s critique that Google lacks focus
When asked about Steve Jobs’s critique that Google is doing too many things and lacks focus, Page jokes:
“I mean he was right. He did fine as well.”
But Page does admit Google’s lack of focus is something he worried about. He explains that he chose this path for Google because he wanted to build a company for engineers and entrepreneurs.
“You’re looking at the business benefit you might get [from trying all of these different ideas]. But I also think in terms of motivating ourselves, potential employees, and entrepreneurs. We want to be doing things that are exciting and that are really going to make a difference.”
One of the things that inspired Page to create the Alphabet org structure was the observation that companies—in general—have bad reputations.
“Most people don’t wake up and say ‘Oh, I wish I could go work for a company.’ They do it because they have to… I think that’s something we should work to change.”
This was his goal for Google.
“I think we need to be more ambitious. We’ve got to do things that matter more to people. We’ve got to do fewer things that are zero-sum games, and more things that really cause a lot of benefit.”
Video source: @FortuneMagazine (2015)
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