Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Ennismore on Nippon Television Holdings $9404 JP
Thesis: NTV’s resilient earnings and strategic acquisition of Studio Ghibli offer a unique value play, with the stock trading at a discount despite a strong downside protection.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/eyZf7K7Y3T
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Ennismore on Nippon Television Holdings $9404 JP
Thesis: NTV’s resilient earnings and strategic acquisition of Studio Ghibli offer a unique value play, with the stock trading at a discount despite a strong downside protection.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/eyZf7K7Y3T
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Oakmark on Diageo $DGE LN
Thesis: Diageo’s unrivaled brand portfolio and global scale provide strong competitive advantages, making it a compelling buy at current levels with potential for recovery from recent market weakness
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/s16FzpwD6H
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Oakmark on Diageo $DGE LN
Thesis: Diageo’s unrivaled brand portfolio and global scale provide strong competitive advantages, making it a compelling buy at current levels with potential for recovery from recent market weakness
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/s16FzpwD6H
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Peter Thiel on the importance of pitching your startup as a “discount to the future”
Most founders will pitch their startup valuation as a sort of premium on the last round (e.g. “Our valuation last year was X, we’ve made Y progress, and now we deserve a valuation 2x greater.”)
But Thiel argues that this is “completely wrong.”
“The value is never a premium on the past. It’s always a discount to the future. I think the way one should always try to pitch the value of a company is by explaining why it will be worth a lot more in the future and why investors are getting to invest at a point that it’s a lot cheaper.”
He uses his experience fundraising for PayPal as an example. In March 2000, PayPal raised a round at a $500M pre-money valuation, which was a massive premium on the $45M valuation from their raise 3-months prior (note: PayPal also completed a 50/50 merger with Elon Musk’s x in this 3-month period).
How did they get a 5x step up in 3 months?
Thiel explains:
“The way we presented the round was: this is going to be the last round before the IPO. We got people thinking the next round is going to be the IPO and this was going to be at a discount to the IPO. It doesn’t matter what happened three months ago—you’re getting it at a discount to the IPO.”
He concludes:
“Always think of it as a discount to the future. Never a premium on the past.”
Video source: @GA (2015)
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Peter Thiel on the importance of pitching your startup as a “discount to the future”
Most founders will pitch their startup valuation as a sort of premium on the last round (e.g. “Our valuation last year was X, we’ve made Y progress, and now we deserve a valuation 2x greater.”)
But Thiel argues that this is “completely wrong.”
“The value is never a premium on the past. It’s always a discount to the future. I think the way one should always try to pitch the value of a company is by explaining why it will be worth a lot more in the future and why investors are getting to invest at a point that it’s a lot cheaper.”
He uses his experience fundraising for PayPal as an example. In March 2000, PayPal raised a round at a $500M pre-money valuation, which was a massive premium on the $45M valuation from their raise 3-months prior (note: PayPal also completed a 50/50 merger with Elon Musk’s x in this 3-month period).
How did they get a 5x step up in 3 months?
Thiel explains:
“The way we presented the round was: this is going to be the last round before the IPO. We got people thinking the next round is going to be the IPO and this was going to be at a discount to the IPO. It doesn’t matter what happened three months ago—you’re getting it at a discount to the IPO.”
He concludes:
“Always think of it as a discount to the future. Never a premium on the past.”
Video source: @GA (2015)
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Vulcan Value Partners on LVMH $MC FP
Thesis: LVMH’s unparalleled portfolio of iconic luxury brands and strong long-term focus provide a unique opportunity for compounding growth, making it an attractive buy amid recent market volatility.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/sCVvijPF9r
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Vulcan Value Partners on LVMH $MC FP
Thesis: LVMH’s unparalleled portfolio of iconic luxury brands and strong long-term focus provide a unique opportunity for compounding growth, making it an attractive buy amid recent market volatility.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/sCVvijPF9r
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Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Vulcan Value Partners on LVMH $MC FP
Thesis: LVMH’s unparalleled portfolio of iconic luxury brands and strong long-term focus provide a unique opportunity for compounding growth, making it an attractive buy amid recent market volatility.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/0CmAOGyaMY
tweet
Vulcan Value Partners on LVMH $MC FP
Thesis: LVMH’s unparalleled portfolio of iconic luxury brands and strong long-term focus provide a unique opportunity for compounding growth, making it an attractive buy amid recent market volatility.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/0CmAOGyaMY
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
RT @hammer_mt: Also true of pitching yourself for a promotion. Employees think they deserve a promotion based on what they have achieved so far, but the only thing the boss manager cares about is your relative cost benefit to hiring someone above you.
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RT @hammer_mt: Also true of pitching yourself for a promotion. Employees think they deserve a promotion based on what they have achieved so far, but the only thing the boss manager cares about is your relative cost benefit to hiring someone above you.
Peter Thiel on the importance of pitching your startup as a “discount to the future”
Most founders will pitch their startup valuation as a sort of premium on the last round (e.g. “Our valuation last year was X, we’ve made Y progress, and now we deserve a valuation 2x greater.”)
But Thiel argues that this is “completely wrong.”
“The value is never a premium on the past. It’s always a discount to the future. I think the way one should always try to pitch the value of a company is by explaining why it will be worth a lot more in the future and why investors are getting to invest at a point that it’s a lot cheaper.”
He uses his experience fundraising for PayPal as an example. In March 2000, PayPal raised a round at a $500M pre-money valuation, which was a massive premium on the $45M valuation from their raise 3-months prior (note: PayPal also completed a 50/50 merger with Elon Musk’s x in this 3-month period).
How did they get a 5x step up in 3 months?
Thiel explains:
“The way we presented the round was: this is going to be the last round before the IPO. We got people thinking the next round is going to be the IPO and this was going to be at a discount to the IPO. It doesn’t matter what happened three months ago—you’re getting it at a discount to the IPO.”
He concludes:
“Always think of it as a discount to the future. Never a premium on the past.”
Video source: @GA (2015) tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $TMO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.68x
•5-Year Mean: 24.92x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.09%
•5-Year Mean: 3.59%
As you can see, $TMO appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~14% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $TMO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $6.65B
•Long-Term Debt: $31.20B
$TMO has a good balance sheet (acquisitions a big growth driver), a A- S&P Credit Rating & 6x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅*
•2019: 8.3%
•2020: 13.4%
•2021: 12.8%
•2022: 10.3%
•2023: 8.7%
•LTM: 8.6%
*lower ROIC due to acquisition strategy
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 12.9%
•2020: 19.9%
•2021: 20.5%
•2022: 16.4%
•2023: 13.1%
•LTM: 12.9%
$TMO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $13.09B
•2023: $42.86B
•CAGR: 12.59%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $1.73B
•2023: $6.93B
•CAGR: 14.88%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $5.42
•2023: $21.55
•CAGR: 14.80%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 365.80M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 384.25M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 40.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~14% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $TMO has to grow earnings at an 11.84% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (11.84%) required growth rate:
2024E: $21.70 (0.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $23.58 (8.7% YoY)
2026E: $26.37 (11.8% YoY)
$TMO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $TMO ends 2026 with $26.37 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
27x P/E: $711.99💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $685.62💵 … ~12.0% CAGR
25x P/E: $659.25💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $632.88💵 … ~7.9% CAGR
As you can see, $TMO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >26x earnings (a multiple above its 5-year mean & multiple that may be slightly demanding given its growth rate
However, $TMO is an excellent business with a wide moat & will benefit from future ongoing sector demand
Yet, those buying $TMO today at $541💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety
I’d be more interested in $TMO closer to $500💵 (8% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~11% to ~12% CAGR while assuming a 23x - 24x end multiple, ensuring a comfortable margin of safety
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $TMO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.68x
•5-Year Mean: 24.92x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.09%
•5-Year Mean: 3.59%
As you can see, $TMO appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~14% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $TMO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $6.65B
•Long-Term Debt: $31.20B
$TMO has a good balance sheet (acquisitions a big growth driver), a A- S&P Credit Rating & 6x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅*
•2019: 8.3%
•2020: 13.4%
•2021: 12.8%
•2022: 10.3%
•2023: 8.7%
•LTM: 8.6%
*lower ROIC due to acquisition strategy
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 12.9%
•2020: 19.9%
•2021: 20.5%
•2022: 16.4%
•2023: 13.1%
•LTM: 12.9%
$TMO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $13.09B
•2023: $42.86B
•CAGR: 12.59%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $1.73B
•2023: $6.93B
•CAGR: 14.88%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $5.42
•2023: $21.55
•CAGR: 14.80%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 365.80M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 384.25M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 40.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~14% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $TMO has to grow earnings at an 11.84% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (11.84%) required growth rate:
2024E: $21.70 (0.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $23.58 (8.7% YoY)
2026E: $26.37 (11.8% YoY)
$TMO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $TMO ends 2026 with $26.37 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
27x P/E: $711.99💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $685.62💵 … ~12.0% CAGR
25x P/E: $659.25💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $632.88💵 … ~7.9% CAGR
As you can see, $TMO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >26x earnings (a multiple above its 5-year mean & multiple that may be slightly demanding given its growth rate
However, $TMO is an excellent business with a wide moat & will benefit from future ongoing sector demand
Yet, those buying $TMO today at $541💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety
I’d be more interested in $TMO closer to $500💵 (8% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~11% to ~12% CAGR while assuming a 23x - 24x end multiple, ensuring a comfortable margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $SMLR has risen over 6% this morning, and is now up 8% since an insider purchase was reported yesterday https://t.co/JbaCFvvUdr
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RT @InsiderRadar: $SMLR has risen over 6% this morning, and is now up 8% since an insider purchase was reported yesterday https://t.co/JbaCFvvUdr
🚨 JUST IN: New Insider Purchase
A director of $SMLR has reported the purchase of ~$1.9M of the company's stock.
The stock rose over 35% between when the trade was made (on 11/7) and when it was reported.
This is only the first insider purchase at the company in over a year. tweet
Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Hedge funds' best ideas #18 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)
Includes links to the Q3 letters from Alta Fox / Aoris / Aristotle / Choice Equities CM / Clearbridge / Conestoga / Donville Kent / Greenlight / Greystone CM / Guinness GI / Harding Loevner / Massif Capital / Middle Coast Investing / Munro / Oakmark / Third Point / Tidefall Capital / Wedgewood Partners / White Brook Capital
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Hedge funds' best ideas #18 is in your inbox 🔥
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Includes links to the Q3 letters from Alta Fox / Aoris / Aristotle / Choice Equities CM / Clearbridge / Conestoga / Donville Kent / Greenlight / Greystone CM / Guinness GI / Harding Loevner / Massif Capital / Middle Coast Investing / Munro / Oakmark / Third Point / Tidefall Capital / Wedgewood Partners / White Brook Capital
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