Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Naval Ravikant explains why startup founders should be able to code
Naval Ravikant gave the following advice to a startup spending $25k outsourcing product development to external developers:
“You guys should be coding from the start. Web and mobile startups are so competitive right now. You have to assume that anything you’re doing, there’s a team of 2-4 dedicated, hardcore hackers working 24/7 on something extremely similar.”
He continues:
“If you have this iteration loop where you have to submit something to someone else and they have to come back to you. Then you’re like ‘no, it wasn’t quite right’ because a lot of stuff was lost in translation, you’re going to get 1-2 cycles per day at best. Meanwhile, that other team is getting 20 cycles per day. It has gotten so intense now that non-coding founders and startups are having a really difficult time adding value at these early stages.”
Video source: @Forbes (2011)
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Naval Ravikant explains why startup founders should be able to code
Naval Ravikant gave the following advice to a startup spending $25k outsourcing product development to external developers:
“You guys should be coding from the start. Web and mobile startups are so competitive right now. You have to assume that anything you’re doing, there’s a team of 2-4 dedicated, hardcore hackers working 24/7 on something extremely similar.”
He continues:
“If you have this iteration loop where you have to submit something to someone else and they have to come back to you. Then you’re like ‘no, it wasn’t quite right’ because a lot of stuff was lost in translation, you’re going to get 1-2 cycles per day at best. Meanwhile, that other team is getting 20 cycles per day. It has gotten so intense now that non-coding founders and startups are having a really difficult time adding value at these early stages.”
Video source: @Forbes (2011)
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Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Middle Coast Investing on Atkore $ATKR US
Thesis: Despite current headwinds, Atkore’s strong market position, infrastructure tailwinds, and potential recovery offer significant upside, with shares potentially doubling by 2025
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Y04uw5krFM
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Middle Coast Investing on Atkore $ATKR US
Thesis: Despite current headwinds, Atkore’s strong market position, infrastructure tailwinds, and potential recovery offer significant upside, with shares potentially doubling by 2025
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/Y04uw5krFM
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $NVO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.38x
•10-Year Mean: 25.22x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.61%
•10-Year Mean: 3.74%
As you can see, $NVO appears to be trading near or above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~8% LESS in earnings per share & ~30% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $11.18B
•Long-Term Debt: $7.68B
$NVO has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 777x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 84.4%
•2020: 71.0%
•2021: 57.7%
•2022: 65.0%
•2023: 72.3%
•LTM: 64.3%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 71.2%
•2020: 69.7%
•2021: 71.2%
•2022: 72.0%
•2023: 88.1%
•LTM: 88.7%
$NVO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $13.79B
•2023: $34.40B
•CAGR: 9.57%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $4.19B
•2023: $12.31B
•CAGR: 11.37%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.85
•2023: $2.70
•CAGR: 12.25%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 5.39B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 4.47B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~17%, $NVO increased its EPS by ~20% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 84.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 44.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~8% LESS in EPS & ~30% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVO has to grow earnings at a 13.69% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.69%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.24 (20.6% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $3.98 (22.9% YoY)
2026E: $4.76 (19.9% YoY)
$NVO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $NVO ends 2026 with $4.76 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
28x P/E: $133.28💵 … ~12.3% CAGR
27x P/E: $133.28💵 … ~10.4% CAGR
26x P/E: $123.76💵 … ~8.6% CAGR
24x P/E: $114.24💵 … ~4.7% CAGR
23x P/E: $109.48💵 … ~2.5% CAGR
As you can see, $NVO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >27x earnings (a multiple above its 10-year mean, however it is a multiple justified by its growth rate & quality)
Those buying $NVO today at $106💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety
I’ll be more interested in $NVO closer to $90💵 (15% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect double-digit returns while assuming a 23x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety
#stocks #investing
*Financials in USD
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $NVO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.38x
•10-Year Mean: 25.22x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.61%
•10-Year Mean: 3.74%
As you can see, $NVO appears to be trading near or above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~8% LESS in earnings per share & ~30% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $11.18B
•Long-Term Debt: $7.68B
$NVO has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 777x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 84.4%
•2020: 71.0%
•2021: 57.7%
•2022: 65.0%
•2023: 72.3%
•LTM: 64.3%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 71.2%
•2020: 69.7%
•2021: 71.2%
•2022: 72.0%
•2023: 88.1%
•LTM: 88.7%
$NVO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $13.79B
•2023: $34.40B
•CAGR: 9.57%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $4.19B
•2023: $12.31B
•CAGR: 11.37%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.85
•2023: $2.70
•CAGR: 12.25%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 5.39B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 4.47B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~17%, $NVO increased its EPS by ~20% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 84.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 44.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~8% LESS in EPS & ~30% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVO has to grow earnings at a 13.69% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.69%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.24 (20.6% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $3.98 (22.9% YoY)
2026E: $4.76 (19.9% YoY)
$NVO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $NVO ends 2026 with $4.76 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
28x P/E: $133.28💵 … ~12.3% CAGR
27x P/E: $133.28💵 … ~10.4% CAGR
26x P/E: $123.76💵 … ~8.6% CAGR
24x P/E: $114.24💵 … ~4.7% CAGR
23x P/E: $109.48💵 … ~2.5% CAGR
As you can see, $NVO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >27x earnings (a multiple above its 10-year mean, however it is a multiple justified by its growth rate & quality)
Those buying $NVO today at $106💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety
I’ll be more interested in $NVO closer to $90💵 (15% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect double-digit returns while assuming a 23x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety
#stocks #investing
*Financials in USD
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Josh Gottheimer just disclosed dozens of stock trades.
Full trade list is up on Quiver.
I'm still looking through them, but here's one that stood out to me right off the bat:
Representative Gottheimer bought stock in Alibaba, $BABA.
This is the first time we have seen him buy stock in the Chinese tech company in almost three years.
Gottheimer sits on the House Intelligence Committee.
Gottheimer has has claimed that his portfolio is managed by a third-party financial advisor.
However, he has pledged to put his money in a blind trust, but does not appear to have done so yet.
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BREAKING: Representative Josh Gottheimer just disclosed dozens of stock trades.
Full trade list is up on Quiver.
I'm still looking through them, but here's one that stood out to me right off the bat:
Representative Gottheimer bought stock in Alibaba, $BABA.
This is the first time we have seen him buy stock in the Chinese tech company in almost three years.
Gottheimer sits on the House Intelligence Committee.
Gottheimer has has claimed that his portfolio is managed by a third-party financial advisor.
However, he has pledged to put his money in a blind trust, but does not appear to have done so yet.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
Trump Media stock, $DJT, has fallen 20% today.
It's now actually down 13% since election results started coming in.
Trump's net worth has fallen $834M today, per our estimates. https://t.co/jvOF6phDkj
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Trump Media stock, $DJT, has fallen 20% today.
It's now actually down 13% since election results started coming in.
Trump's net worth has fallen $834M today, per our estimates. https://t.co/jvOF6phDkj
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Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Massif Capital on Alphamin $AFM CN
Thesis: Alphamin’s high-grade tin assets, excellent operational execution, and favorable commodity backdrop offer substantial upside, with the stock poised for further gains as the market recognizes its value
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/CZukNDwvv3
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Massif Capital on Alphamin $AFM CN
Thesis: Alphamin’s high-grade tin assets, excellent operational execution, and favorable commodity backdrop offer substantial upside, with the stock poised for further gains as the market recognizes its value
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/CZukNDwvv3
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Instagram founder Kevin Systrom on 3 common startup mistakes
#1 Not launching fast enough
Kevin explains that his biggest mistake with his failed app (Burbn) before Instagram was staying in private beta for 8 months:
“I was worried that if we put it out there, we were going to get judged. And it turns out you want it to fail if it’s going to fail. You want to get that feedback. That fear of putting something out and having it being rejected is terrible, but at the same time it really teaches you to listen and go do something else.”
He only came up with the idea for Instagram by getting Burbn in the hands of users and realizing people loved sharing photos.
“If I could give any advice, it’s stay away from this private beta stuff. Put it out there. Find the people that are vocal about what you’re doing, and put it in their hands and listen to them. Listen to what they’re excited about.”
#2 Not focusing on problems
“I think far too many startups are technologies in search of a problem.”
When Instagram got started, they weren’t trying to reinvent photography or even build a social network—that came later. Initially they focused on three problems:
1. Making photos beautiful with great, free photos
2. Allowing you to share them on multiple networks
3. Fast photo uploads
“That’s what turned Instagram from yet another network trying to tackle this photos thing to something people used.”
Kevin advises entrepreneurs to ask themselves: What are the three problems you’re going to solve?
#3 Maximizing features rather than doing a few things really well
“I think with too many startups, the goal is to maximize features… The thing that ends up making the difference is not another feature that no one’s going to use. It’s what can you go really deep on?… We said: What do people love about the product and how can we make it even better?”
Video source: @kevinrose (2012)
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Instagram founder Kevin Systrom on 3 common startup mistakes
#1 Not launching fast enough
Kevin explains that his biggest mistake with his failed app (Burbn) before Instagram was staying in private beta for 8 months:
“I was worried that if we put it out there, we were going to get judged. And it turns out you want it to fail if it’s going to fail. You want to get that feedback. That fear of putting something out and having it being rejected is terrible, but at the same time it really teaches you to listen and go do something else.”
He only came up with the idea for Instagram by getting Burbn in the hands of users and realizing people loved sharing photos.
“If I could give any advice, it’s stay away from this private beta stuff. Put it out there. Find the people that are vocal about what you’re doing, and put it in their hands and listen to them. Listen to what they’re excited about.”
#2 Not focusing on problems
“I think far too many startups are technologies in search of a problem.”
When Instagram got started, they weren’t trying to reinvent photography or even build a social network—that came later. Initially they focused on three problems:
1. Making photos beautiful with great, free photos
2. Allowing you to share them on multiple networks
3. Fast photo uploads
“That’s what turned Instagram from yet another network trying to tackle this photos thing to something people used.”
Kevin advises entrepreneurs to ask themselves: What are the three problems you’re going to solve?
#3 Maximizing features rather than doing a few things really well
“I think with too many startups, the goal is to maximize features… The thing that ends up making the difference is not another feature that no one’s going to use. It’s what can you go really deep on?… We said: What do people love about the product and how can we make it even better?”
Video source: @kevinrose (2012)
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