⁠Librarian Capital
No, deficit is not simply "spending tomorrow's money"
You can't think of the economy like you do a household

Deficit is also a result of unsustainable distribution
Average person is not being paid enough
Government not collecting enough taxes

Deficit spending is filling the gap https://t.co/imA9TqHSoF
tweet

⁠Hidden Value Gems
Congrats to all who voted for Trump! Let’s hope it will be the repeat of 2016-2019, for markets at least 🚀

PS: i am definitely too far from politics, happy for the French Whale 😀

I am far away from US politics but I still cannot understand why the market is taking Trump win for granted.

Seems like a consensus view now but it is far from obvious to me 🤷🏻‍♂️ - Hidden Value Gems
tweet

⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Harding Loevner on ASML $ASML NA

Thesis: While ASML’s technology remains dominant, surging valuations and signs of a semiconductor slowdown prompted us to exit and seek better growth opportunities.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/US4gwFGbxp
tweet

⁠Hidden Value Gems
Supporting the LfL growth at $JDW.L 😀

Hard to beat those prices 👇🏼 https://t.co/U4q7YIyHAT
tweet

⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Aoris on Diploma $DPLM LN

Thesis: Diploma’s focus on high-value technical solutions and efficient acquisitions positions it for consistent, double-digit growth in diverse global markets.

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/IryUUiOWra
tweet

⁠Startup Archive
Airbnb founder Brian Chesky explains the concept of designing a 7-star product experience

As Brian points out, the status quo for the Internet is 5-star reviews. But the problem with 5 stars is that the bar is really low.

“If you rate an Uber four stars, your life might have been in danger, right?”

But in the early days of Airbnb, they wanted to design a product experience users loved so much they would tell everyone about it. They wondered:

“What if you booked an Airbnb and you didn’t leave 5 stars, but you emailed the company asking for a 6th star because the product was so you had to almost go above and beyond?”

After some brainstorming, they thought a 6th star might be if the Airbnb host picked you up from the airport.

Then they asked, what’s a 7 star experience?

“Well 7 stars, they don’t pick you up at the airport. They send a limousine, and you open the limousine door and there’s coconut water and they know you’re into surfing and there’s some surfing magazines.”

They did this all the way up to 10 stars, which they decided is Elon Musk picking you up from the airport and taking you to space.

As Brian explains:

“It’s very easy to take for granted that the 5 star experience is what people expect. But to build something people love, you need to do something more than they expect. And every moment is an opportunity to do something slightly more than people expect.”

Obviously Elon Musk won’t be able to take every Airbnb guest to space, but offering an airport pickup service might be something they could offer.

There’s also a really important point here that your product is not just a mobile app or a web page, but the whole experience — every point of contact with the customer is an opportunity to delight them.

Video source: @GreylockVC (2015)
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $META 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.44x
•5-Year Mean: 22.50x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.18%
•5-Year Mean: 3.67%

As you can see, $META appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~4% LESS in earnings per share & ~13% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $META is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $70.90B
•Long-Term Debt: $28.82B

$META has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 138x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 26.0%
•2020: 23.5%
•2021: 33.7%
•2022: 22.0%
•2023: 26.3%
•LTM: 30.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 20.0%
•2020: 25.4%
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 18.5%
•2023: 28.0%
•LTM: 36.1%

$META has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $55.84B
•2023: $134.90B
•CAGR: 19.29%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $15.36B
•2023: $43.85B
•CAGR: 23.34%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $7.57
•2023: $14.87
•CAGR: 14.45%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 2.92B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.62B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.2%, $META increased its EPS by ~11.3% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 41.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.6%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~4% LESS in EPS & ~13% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $META has to grow earnings at an 11.72% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (11.72%) required growth rate:

2024E: $22.58 (51.8% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $25.21 (11.7% YoY)
2026E: $28.67 (13.7% YoY)

$META has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $META ends 2026 with $28.67 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

26x P/E: $745.52💵 … ~13.4% CAGR

24x P/E: $688.08💵 … ~9.3% CAGR

22x P/E: $630.74💵 … ~5.0% CAGR

As you can see, $META appears to have double-digit CAGR potential if we assume >24x earnings, a multiple above its 5-year average (22.50x), however 24x is a multiple that’s justified given its mid-teens earnings growth rate, balance sheet, visionary CEO & investments in AI & LLMs

As I’ve mentioned before: “… the increased investment in future growth and necessary Al development, which has the potential to lead to better growth prospects, should be viewed with a bullish tone rather than a bearish one” — (which can lead to a sustainable re-rating over the next few years)

Mark Zuckerberg continues to execute exceptionally well, as he has always done

Today at $572💵 $META appears to be fairly valued, so those buying today won’t have a margin of safety and will be relying heavily on estimates being met

I’d consider $META a good buy ~$515💵, offering ~10.2% CAGR assuming 22x 2026 est

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet

⁠Quiver Quantitative
Marjorie Taylor Greene bought Tesla stock just before the election.

$TSLA has now risen 15% since her trade. https://t.co/utjRkEf4aF
tweet