⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase

The CEO of $CMCO just reported the purchase of ~$1M of the company's stock.

This is the first insider purchase he has reported in over 4 years. https://t.co/HebWFHKQRS
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⁠iinvested
3Q'24 Heartland Value Plus Fund on $GTES, $HAYW

More fund letters here:
https://t.co/ccjFhSPQ2v https://t.co/apvsr6fB5Z
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⁠Librarian Capital
FT: "(The FDA) has formally authorised the sale of just one brand of pouches"

Which one is it? FDA Marketing Granted Orders (MGO) list has no such product, only listing $PM's General snus (2015) and $MO's Verve tobacco discs (2021)?

cc @clara__murray

https://t.co/hkPJ7oh86K
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⁠Librarian Capital
Another bad take from an oft-quoted Tobacco analyst

"Nicotine pouches might ultimately have limited appeal to consumers ... There’s the social aspect and the whole theatre of smoking"

But you can have pouches in a theatre, or indeed on many occasions where you can't smoke

$PM https://t.co/LzPHPWGxN7
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⁠Librarian Capital
RT @LindseyGrahamSC: If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.
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⁠Startup Archive
Drew Houston explains how he built Dropbox with the AARRR Framework

“We had a lot of competitors who built things that were reasonably functional, but they didn’t get distribution right. And they didn’t get virality right.”

How’d Dropbox get it right?

Drew recalls using Dave McClure’s “Startup Metrics for Pirates: AARRR!!!” framework to run the company in the early days.

The gist of the framework is to measure and constantly improve five core metrics: Acquisition, Activation, Revenue, Retention, and Referral.

The first example he gives is Activation:

“Users come in. Oh my god, 4 out of 5 who signed up don’t put a file in their Dropbox or install a client. What’s going on?”

As Drew partially explains in the clip, they went on Craigslist and offered $40 to anyone who'd come in for a 30-minute usability test. They asked these people to go from a Dropbox e-mail invitation to sharing a file with another email address.

“Zero of the five people succeeded. Zero of the five even came close.”

This stunned the team. So they made a list of 80+ things in an Excel spreadsheet and sanded down all of the rough edges in the experience. Their activation rate climbed from there.

“Really paying attention to all the steps and the viral engine and tuning that as much as possible,” as Drew explains, was crucial.

For the Referral step of the framework, Dropbox used a combination of organic virality (users sharing files with nonusers) and incentivized virality (free file storage for each person you refer) to achieve exponential growth.

For initial user acquisition, Drew famously created a viral video demoing Dropbox and shared it to Digg and Reddit to build the initial waitlist.

“It was inspired by some of the stuff I saw in the late 90s and early 2000s. PayPal had an incentive referral bonus. I had the idea for the DIgg and Reddit video based on a book called Guerrilla Marketing, which was like, How do you do marketing and get users when you have no money?… A lot of the dots were connected from things I had read over the last several years.”

Video source: @ycombinator (2017)
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.80x
•10-Year Mean: 23.61x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.41%
•10-Year Mean: 4.18%

As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~5% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $93.23B
•Long-Term Debt: $10.88B

$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 370x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 31.7%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 32.1%

$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $136.82B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 17.57%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $22.83B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 24.93%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 21.50%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.51B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~12.3% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 32.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~5% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 9.90% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.90%) required growth rate:

2024E: $8.00 (38.0% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $8.93 (11.6% YoY)
2026E: $10.12 (13.3% YoY)

$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $10.12 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

23x P/E: $229.54💵 … ~16.0% CAGR

22x P/E: $219.56💵 … ~13.6% CAGR

21x P/E: $209.58💵 … ~11.2% CAGR

20x P/E: $199.60💵 … ~8.8% CAGR

19x P/E: $189.62💵 … ~6.2% CAGR

As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >21x earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean)

At >23x earnings, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)

Those buying today have a decent margin of safety given

In $GOOG latest report we saw a strong re-acceleration in cloud growth ☁️ & margins continue to expand

Today at $170💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment

#stocks #investing $GOOGL
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Librarian Capital
RT @CalltoActivism: Wow! Jimmy Kimmel made a brilliant super cut of all the crazy things Trump has said.

It’s easy to forget these, but this video is masterful:

https://t.co/PD5BSg5iou
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