⁠Quiver Quantitative
Berkshire Hathaway disclosed another $60m purchase of $SIRI this morning.

The stock is up almost 7% so far today.

Berkshire Hathaway has disclosed a purchase of ~$42m of Sirius XM stock.

This adds to their existing ~$3b position in the company. https://t.co/y3MBxJioSc - Quiver Quantitative
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.14x
•10-Year Mean: 24.25x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.88%
•10-Year Mean: 2.86%

As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~33% MORE in operating cash flow & ~1% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $89.09B
•Long-Term Debt: $61.78B

$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 39x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 13.8%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 21.9%

$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.64B

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 9.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.4%

*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~33% MORE in OCF & ~1% MORE in FCF per share

We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:

2024E: $11.14 (38% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $13.22 (19% YoY)
2026E: $16.85 (27% YoY)

$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.85 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):

18x P/OCF: $303.28💵 … ~23.3% CAGR

17x P/OCF: $286.43💵 … ~20.0% CAGR

16x P/OCF: $269.58💵 … ~16.7% CAGR

15x P/OCF: $252.73💵 … ~13.3% CAGR

14x P/OCF: $235.88💵 … ~9.8% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple well below what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate

Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈

2024E: $53.89B (46% YoY)
2025E: $72.40B (34% YoY)
2026E: $97.17B (34% YoY)

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:

☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B

Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)

Today at $193💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing

Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Nightview Capital on Tesla $TSLA US

Thesis: Tesla’s FSD technology and unique data-driven approach offer an unparalleled growth potential in transportation and future robotics.

(Extract from their Q3 letter, link to the full analysis in SAC#62) https://t.co/zhxUUKWJaa
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⁠Librarian Capital
The Russians want Trump in the White House
And they are doing something to make it happen
Don't let them win - vote!

BREAKING: The FBI, ODNI, and CISA say that Russian actors manufactured and amplified a fake video circulating on social media purporting to show Haitians voting illegally for Kamala Harris
https://t.co/miihjVga3N - Republicans against Trump
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⁠Librarian Capital
https://t.co/yjUCvTNt2x

Two weeks ago, Donald Trump said on camera during a Fox & Friends interview that he was about to meet directly with Rupert Murdoch to ask him to tell Fox News not to air any campaign ads or guests who criticize him. - Matthew Gertz
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⁠Librarian Capital
The FT endorses Harris/Walz:

"Where Trump threatens a perilous rupture, Harris represents continuity with the values of liberal democracy and free and open trade — the bedrock of prosperity for America and its partners"

"Take a breath and think through the consequences"

America’s fateful choice between Trump and Harris https://t.co/jL56rdcsVf | opinion - Financial Times
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⁠Librarian Capital
RT @general_ben: This isn't a normal campaign. Trump isn't a normal candidate. You say Generals are Generals for life so my oath to defend the Constitution is for life. Trump threatens our Constitution. I can't stand by.

"Keep Your Politics Private" https://t.co/sN2286OiQz via @DefenseOne
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⁠Librarian Capital
We've been posting a large amount of politcal content

I appreciate this may not be what you all want to see, but this election is far too important

You can follow our accounts on other platforms for politics-free content

We hope to resume normal service after Trump is defeated
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