⁠Capital Employed
RT @capitalemployed: EXCITING NEWS! 🚨

We're relaunching the Capital Employed podcast.

This time reading quarterly letters from some our favorite fund managers. As well as audio versions of stock pitches we like.

We will be uploading to our YouTube channel. 👇

https://t.co/IcIlBSS0gy
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⁠Librarian Capital
Jason Zweig (WSJ Intelligent Investor column):

"Much of the marketing that advisers use to earn investors’ trust is misleading, including TV appearances they didn’t make, books they didn’t write and standards of ethics they don’t meet"

No mention of accounts on Fintwit (yet)

Jaw dropping stuff from @jasonzweigwsj ... "as seen in the Wall Street Journal." https://t.co/e9lEp2DfJX - Spencer Jakab
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⁠Startup Archive
Naval Ravikant on the importance of hiring high-agency people

Naval defines agency as:

“People who just solve problems without even being asked to solve the problem—they identify the problem, they go solve it, they don’t even necessarily have to update you every step of the way, they’re not asking silly questions, and they’re just coming up with solutions.”

He believes this is important because “building a startup is an infinite set of problems that are being thrown at you.” And there comes a day where you can’t even look at every problem your company is facing—let alone solve every one of them.

He cites the Vinod Khosla aphorism:

"The team you build is the company you build, not the plan you make.”

And your ability to solve problems is based entirely on how many problem-solvers you have at your company. As Naval puts it:

“If you have somebody who takes 10% of your time and management to solve problems, you can only have 10 of those people working with you. But if somebody takes 5%, you can have 20 of those people.”

When building Airchat and AngelList, he thought of each team as a Navy Seal team:

“Everyone is just really good at what they do. They know their job. They do it. They don’t complain. They’re not egotistical about it. And if they have to constantly be corrected, led around by the nose, you have to clean up after them, or you question their judgement, it’s not going to work out.”

Video source: @AngelList (2023)
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⁠Librarian Capital
Saying Altria $MO surprised critics in meeting original FY24 guidance is a bad take

Amount of discretionary spend in Tobacco P&L means they can make any numbers in short term

MO also funded extra $2.4bn of buybacks from selling down $ABI stake, which wasn't expected originally https://t.co/kqRxWbLASM
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⁠Librarian Capital
RT @mcuban: The day inflation started (h/t @Matthewcanwrite ) https://t.co/kt6w5lkboc

Mark Cuban explains how Trump started the high inflation:

In April 2020, in the early days of Covid, the gas prices were $1.87. Oil companies went to Trump and said: we're getting crushed. You have to talk to your friends MBS and Putin and ask them to reduce production. And he did. That was the day inflation started - Republicans against Trump
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⁠Librarian Capital
"UBS will deploy 50,000 (Microsoft Copilot) seats, in our largest FinServ deal to date"
- $MSFT CEO Satya Nadella (FY25Q1 call)

That's nearly ½ of $UBSG headcount (120k post Credit Suisse takeover, ~110k at 2023 year-end) https://t.co/E7C2jX9vrj
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Berkshire Hathaway disclosed another $60m purchase of $SIRI this morning.

The stock is up almost 7% so far today.

Berkshire Hathaway has disclosed a purchase of ~$42m of Sirius XM stock.

This adds to their existing ~$3b position in the company. https://t.co/y3MBxJioSc - Quiver Quantitative
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.14x
•10-Year Mean: 24.25x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.88%
•10-Year Mean: 2.86%

As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~33% MORE in operating cash flow & ~1% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $89.09B
•Long-Term Debt: $61.78B

$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 39x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 13.8%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 21.9%

$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.64B

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 9.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.4%

*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~33% MORE in OCF & ~1% MORE in FCF per share

We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:

2024E: $11.14 (38% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $13.22 (19% YoY)
2026E: $16.85 (27% YoY)

$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.85 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):

18x P/OCF: $303.28💵 … ~23.3% CAGR

17x P/OCF: $286.43💵 … ~20.0% CAGR

16x P/OCF: $269.58💵 … ~16.7% CAGR

15x P/OCF: $252.73💵 … ~13.3% CAGR

14x P/OCF: $235.88💵 … ~9.8% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple well below what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2010) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate

Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈

2024E: $53.89B (46% YoY)
2025E: $72.40B (34% YoY)
2026E: $97.17B (34% YoY)

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:

☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B

Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)

Today at $193💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing

Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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