Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Elon Musk on how to choose what to work on
“I don’t think everything needs to change the world. There’s lots of useful things that people do, and I think it should really be like a usefulness optimization.”
For anyone trying to figure out what to work on, Elon suggests asking yourself, “Is what I’m doing as useful as it could be?”
He continues:
“Even if something isn’t changing the world but it’s making people’s lives better, I think that’s great.”
Elon gives the example of an app that makes people’s lives only slightly better - the area under the curve of the usefulness optimization is quite good if it’s affecting a lot of people.
Video source: @ECorner (2015)
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Elon Musk on how to choose what to work on
“I don’t think everything needs to change the world. There’s lots of useful things that people do, and I think it should really be like a usefulness optimization.”
For anyone trying to figure out what to work on, Elon suggests asking yourself, “Is what I’m doing as useful as it could be?”
He continues:
“Even if something isn’t changing the world but it’s making people’s lives better, I think that’s great.”
Elon gives the example of an app that makes people’s lives only slightly better - the area under the curve of the usefulness optimization is quite good if it’s affecting a lot of people.
Video source: @ECorner (2015)
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $ASML 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.90x
•10-Year Mean: 31.07x
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~30% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $5.56B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.23B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 31x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 17.5%
•2020: 21.6%
•2021: 43.8%
•2022: 48.0%
•2023: 48.7%
•LTM: 38.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 49.0%
•2022: 59.4%
•2023: 70.4%
•LTM: 49.2%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.22B
•2023: $30.42B
•CAGR: 15.46%
FREE CASH FLOW*
• $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isn’t necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the company’s value
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $3.17
•2023: $21.65
•CAGR: 21.18%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: $426.40M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 393.80M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.6%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 51.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 30.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at an 11.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.95%) required growth rate:
2024E: $20.21 (-6.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $30.14 (49.1% YoY)
2026E: $35.47 (17.7% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out. HOWEVER, let’s be conservative & assume $ASML ends 2026 with $30.00*** in EPS (16.5% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $900💵 … ~14.2% CAGR
29x P/E: $870💵 … ~12.4% CAGR
28x P/E: $840💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $810💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
26x P/E: $780💵 … ~7.1% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x EPS (below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate) while also assuming 2026 EPS is 16.5% below today’s estimates
Today at $683💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
Additionally, we have some margin of safety by relying on a lower multiple, lower growth rate, & by purchasing shares near what I like to call a “fundamental bottom” (as you’ll see in the first photo)
As I’ve stated before, given its volatility, however, it’s wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the short-term 💵
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $ASML 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.90x
•10-Year Mean: 31.07x
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~30% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $5.56B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.23B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 31x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 17.5%
•2020: 21.6%
•2021: 43.8%
•2022: 48.0%
•2023: 48.7%
•LTM: 38.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 49.0%
•2022: 59.4%
•2023: 70.4%
•LTM: 49.2%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.22B
•2023: $30.42B
•CAGR: 15.46%
FREE CASH FLOW*
• $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isn’t necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the company’s value
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $3.17
•2023: $21.65
•CAGR: 21.18%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: $426.40M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 393.80M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.6%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 51.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 30.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at an 11.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.95%) required growth rate:
2024E: $20.21 (-6.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $30.14 (49.1% YoY)
2026E: $35.47 (17.7% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out. HOWEVER, let’s be conservative & assume $ASML ends 2026 with $30.00*** in EPS (16.5% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $900💵 … ~14.2% CAGR
29x P/E: $870💵 … ~12.4% CAGR
28x P/E: $840💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $810💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
26x P/E: $780💵 … ~7.1% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x EPS (below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate) while also assuming 2026 EPS is 16.5% below today’s estimates
Today at $683💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
Additionally, we have some margin of safety by relying on a lower multiple, lower growth rate, & by purchasing shares near what I like to call a “fundamental bottom” (as you’ll see in the first photo)
As I’ve stated before, given its volatility, however, it’s wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the short-term 💵
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Alluvium on Visa $V US
Thesis: Visa dominates the global payments landscape, leveraging its strong networks and brand to capture the shift towards digital transactions and electronic payments.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/HM5N3ZA71O
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Alluvium on Visa $V US
Thesis: Visa dominates the global payments landscape, leveraging its strong networks and brand to capture the shift towards digital transactions and electronic payments.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/HM5N3ZA71O
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 New Insider Purchase
One of the directors of $SNDA has reported the purchase of ~$800k of the company's stock.
This is the latest in a string of insider purchases that have recently been made at $SNDA. https://t.co/dbz4VxCTn9
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RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 New Insider Purchase
One of the directors of $SNDA has reported the purchase of ~$800k of the company's stock.
This is the latest in a string of insider purchases that have recently been made at $SNDA. https://t.co/dbz4VxCTn9
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Investing visuals
Robinhood $HOOD introduced some major updates at the HOOD Summit.
Did this change your thesis on $HOOD?🤔 https://t.co/v9JhtUnOVf
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Robinhood $HOOD introduced some major updates at the HOOD Summit.
Did this change your thesis on $HOOD?🤔 https://t.co/v9JhtUnOVf
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Hidden Value Gems
“We will avoid calling this market a bubble, and simply observe that the dividend yield is low and the P/E ratio is elevated despite corporate earnings being cyclically high, if not top-of-cycle.”
David Einhorn (Q3 letter).
Exited Ryanair and NatWest in the UK
1/2 https://t.co/FP1bq5aF5M
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“We will avoid calling this market a bubble, and simply observe that the dividend yield is low and the P/E ratio is elevated despite corporate earnings being cyclically high, if not top-of-cycle.”
David Einhorn (Q3 letter).
Exited Ryanair and NatWest in the UK
1/2 https://t.co/FP1bq5aF5M
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Palm Valley CM on Helen of Troy $HELE US
Thesis: Helen of Troy offers an attractive entry point, with its well-positioned brands and significant cash generation, despite short-term financial pressure and market skepticism
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/uD8VCkRdF1
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Palm Valley CM on Helen of Troy $HELE US
Thesis: Helen of Troy offers an attractive entry point, with its well-positioned brands and significant cash generation, despite short-term financial pressure and market skepticism
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/uD8VCkRdF1
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