Offshore
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โ Investing visuals
Strong earnings by $TSM, stock is up +4% overnight, hitting an all-time-high๐ซก
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Strong earnings by $TSM, stock is up +4% overnight, hitting an all-time-high๐ซก
$TSM TSMC Q3 FY24:
โข Revenue +36% Y/Y $23.5B ($0.2B beat).
โข Gross margin 58% (+4pp Y/Y).
โข Operating margin 47% (+6pp Y/Y).
โข Capex $6.4B.
โข EPADR $1.94 ($0.15 beat).
3nm & 5nm were 20% & 32% of revenue. https://t.co/ZItyG9XEKM tweet
Offshore
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โ Hidden Value Gems
This is quite interesting ๐๐ผ $UBER looked at acquiring $EXPE especially since the current Uber CEO is the former CEO of Expedia and worked at its parent, $IAC before.
Expedia changed its CEO this year and announced a few turnaround measures.
The stock is super cheap at 12x PE, obviously struggled to grow and is facing weaker demand now...but still looks like an interesting long idea.
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This is quite interesting ๐๐ผ $UBER looked at acquiring $EXPE especially since the current Uber CEO is the former CEO of Expedia and worked at its parent, $IAC before.
Expedia changed its CEO this year and announced a few turnaround measures.
The stock is super cheap at 12x PE, obviously struggled to grow and is facing weaker demand now...but still looks like an interesting long idea.
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
BIT Capital on Hellofresh $HFG GR
Thesis: Hellofresh's growth prospects are driven by stabilizing meal-kit profits, cost reductions, and expansion into new food categories, supported by insider buying from the Founder-CEO
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/GkCOuLxUEE
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BIT Capital on Hellofresh $HFG GR
Thesis: Hellofresh's growth prospects are driven by stabilizing meal-kit profits, cost reductions, and expansion into new food categories, supported by insider buying from the Founder-CEO
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/GkCOuLxUEE
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Protean funds on Novo Nordisk $NOVOB DC
Thesis: Novo Nordisk's recent dip is a buying opportunity, with continued growth potential supported by strong fundamentals and an anticipated read-out of key data in Q4
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/RHy5zLxd8N
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Protean funds on Novo Nordisk $NOVOB DC
Thesis: Novo Nordisk's recent dip is a buying opportunity, with continued growth potential supported by strong fundamentals and an anticipated read-out of key data in Q4
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/RHy5zLxd8N
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Offshore
Video
โ Startup Archive
Elon Musk on how to choose what to work on
โI donโt think everything needs to change the world. Thereโs lots of useful things that people do, and I think it should really be like a usefulness optimization.โ
For anyone trying to figure out what to work on, Elon suggests asking yourself, โIs what Iโm doing as useful as it could be?โ
He continues:
โEven if something isnโt changing the world but itโs making peopleโs lives better, I think thatโs great.โ
Elon gives the example of an app that makes peopleโs lives only slightly better - the area under the curve of the usefulness optimization is quite good if itโs affecting a lot of people.
Video source: @ECorner (2015)
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Elon Musk on how to choose what to work on
โI donโt think everything needs to change the world. Thereโs lots of useful things that people do, and I think it should really be like a usefulness optimization.โ
For anyone trying to figure out what to work on, Elon suggests asking yourself, โIs what Iโm doing as useful as it could be?โ
He continues:
โEven if something isnโt changing the world but itโs making peopleโs lives better, I think thatโs great.โ
Elon gives the example of an app that makes peopleโs lives only slightly better - the area under the curve of the usefulness optimization is quite good if itโs affecting a lot of people.
Video source: @ECorner (2015)
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $ASML ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 23.90x
โข10-Year Mean: 31.07x
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~30% MORE in earnings per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short Term Inv: $5.56B
โขLong-Term Debt: $5.23B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 31x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 17.5%
โข2020: 21.6%
โข2021: 43.8%
โข2022: 48.0%
โข2023: 48.7%
โขLTM: 38.0%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 21.4%
โข2020: 26.9%
โข2021: 49.0%
โข2022: 59.4%
โข2023: 70.4%
โขLTM: 49.2%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $7.22B
โข2023: $30.42B
โขCAGR: 15.46%
FREE CASH FLOW*
โข $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isnโt necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the companyโs value
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $3.17
โข2023: $21.65
โขCAGR: 21.18%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: $426.40M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 393.80M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.6%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 51.1%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 30.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at an 11.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.95%) required growth rate:
2024E: $20.21 (-6.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $30.14 (49.1% YoY)
2026E: $35.47 (17.7% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out. HOWEVER, letโs be conservative & assume $ASML ends 2026 with $30.00*** in EPS (16.5% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $900๐ต โฆ ~14.2% CAGR
29x P/E: $870๐ต โฆ ~12.4% CAGR
28x P/E: $840๐ต โฆ ~10.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $810๐ต โฆ ~8.9% CAGR
26x P/E: $780๐ต โฆ ~7.1% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x EPS (below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate) while also assuming 2026 EPS is 16.5% below todayโs estimates
Today at $683๐ต $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
Additionally, we have some margin of safety by relying on a lower multiple, lower growth rate, & by purchasing shares near what I like to call a โfundamental bottomโ (as youโll see in the first photo)
As Iโve stated before, given its volatility, however, itโs wise to piece into $ASML โ this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to โwin-winโ if the stock moves up or down in the short-term ๐ต
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A sober valuation analysis on $ASML ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 23.90x
โข10-Year Mean: 31.07x
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~30% MORE in earnings per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short Term Inv: $5.56B
โขLong-Term Debt: $5.23B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 31x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 17.5%
โข2020: 21.6%
โข2021: 43.8%
โข2022: 48.0%
โข2023: 48.7%
โขLTM: 38.0%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 21.4%
โข2020: 26.9%
โข2021: 49.0%
โข2022: 59.4%
โข2023: 70.4%
โขLTM: 49.2%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $7.22B
โข2023: $30.42B
โขCAGR: 15.46%
FREE CASH FLOW*
โข $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isnโt necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the companyโs value
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $3.17
โข2023: $21.65
โขCAGR: 21.18%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: $426.40M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 393.80M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.6%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 51.1%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 30.7%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 26.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at an 11.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (11.95%) required growth rate:
2024E: $20.21 (-6.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $30.14 (49.1% YoY)
2026E: $35.47 (17.7% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out. HOWEVER, letโs be conservative & assume $ASML ends 2026 with $30.00*** in EPS (16.5% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $900๐ต โฆ ~14.2% CAGR
29x P/E: $870๐ต โฆ ~12.4% CAGR
28x P/E: $840๐ต โฆ ~10.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $810๐ต โฆ ~8.9% CAGR
26x P/E: $780๐ต โฆ ~7.1% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 28x EPS (below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate) while also assuming 2026 EPS is 16.5% below todayโs estimates
Today at $683๐ต $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
Additionally, we have some margin of safety by relying on a lower multiple, lower growth rate, & by purchasing shares near what I like to call a โfundamental bottomโ (as youโll see in the first photo)
As Iโve stated before, given its volatility, however, itโs wise to piece into $ASML โ this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to โwin-winโ if the stock moves up or down in the short-term ๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Alluvium on Visa $V US
Thesis: Visa dominates the global payments landscape, leveraging its strong networks and brand to capture the shift towards digital transactions and electronic payments.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/HM5N3ZA71O
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Alluvium on Visa $V US
Thesis: Visa dominates the global payments landscape, leveraging its strong networks and brand to capture the shift towards digital transactions and electronic payments.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/HM5N3ZA71O
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