Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Business lessons from OnlyFans?
"But being a retail salesperson ... is not scalable"
"If you have tens of thousands of fans sending you messages, it’s hard to upsell them"
"The only way to keep up ... is to hire staff"
"Many use agencies and chatters, often in the Philippines" https://t.co/lD7vbfrCjo
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Business lessons from OnlyFans?
"But being a retail salesperson ... is not scalable"
"If you have tens of thousands of fans sending you messages, it’s hard to upsell them"
"The only way to keep up ... is to hire staff"
"Many use agencies and chatters, often in the Philippines" https://t.co/lD7vbfrCjo
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
Just published my latest portfolio review (+6.8% in Q3 / +16.2% in 9M 2024).
Link in bio. https://t.co/onz5YKUDFC
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Just published my latest portfolio review (+6.8% in Q3 / +16.2% in 9M 2024).
Link in bio. https://t.co/onz5YKUDFC
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Pinterest founder Ben Silbermann on the 3 lessons he learned about raising venture capital
“There are lots of ways for investors to say to no to you and I’m pretty sure I’ve heard all of them… And I’ve learned three important lessons that I think any entrepreneur should know if they’re starting the kind of company they think will need funding.”
The three lessons Ben learned are:
1. Investors are just people too. “Investors are just regular people… and even though they have a really good opinion on things, they might be wrong. That was something that was really hard for me to swallow because I really looked up to all these people.”
2. If you need money and they’re the only person who can give you money, you have zero leverage. “There’s nothing you can do unless you hack that system and give them a reason that you should have the leverage. And those reasons generally are fear of losing the deal or the belief that this thing is just going to be so big that whether they give you money or not, you’re just going to be wildly successful.”
3. The future is unwritten. “People can tell you that you should be more technical. They can tell you that you’re in the wrong market. They can tell you all these things, and those things might be true, and you should assess them for yourself. But you shouldn’t take it on face because they could be wrong. And in the back of your head, you have to remember that for all the millions of dollars venture capital investors have made and for all of the IPO certificates on the wall, there are things that they passed on, and those are the things that actually haunt them at night. And if you can convince somebody that you just might be the one that’s going to beat the odds, you can be successful. And it’s a general attitude that I think is important, whether you’re recruiting or raising money.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2012)
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Pinterest founder Ben Silbermann on the 3 lessons he learned about raising venture capital
“There are lots of ways for investors to say to no to you and I’m pretty sure I’ve heard all of them… And I’ve learned three important lessons that I think any entrepreneur should know if they’re starting the kind of company they think will need funding.”
The three lessons Ben learned are:
1. Investors are just people too. “Investors are just regular people… and even though they have a really good opinion on things, they might be wrong. That was something that was really hard for me to swallow because I really looked up to all these people.”
2. If you need money and they’re the only person who can give you money, you have zero leverage. “There’s nothing you can do unless you hack that system and give them a reason that you should have the leverage. And those reasons generally are fear of losing the deal or the belief that this thing is just going to be so big that whether they give you money or not, you’re just going to be wildly successful.”
3. The future is unwritten. “People can tell you that you should be more technical. They can tell you that you’re in the wrong market. They can tell you all these things, and those things might be true, and you should assess them for yourself. But you shouldn’t take it on face because they could be wrong. And in the back of your head, you have to remember that for all the millions of dollars venture capital investors have made and for all of the IPO certificates on the wall, there are things that they passed on, and those are the things that actually haunt them at night. And if you can convince somebody that you just might be the one that’s going to beat the odds, you can be successful. And it’s a general attitude that I think is important, whether you’re recruiting or raising money.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2012)
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Praetorian Capital on A-Mark $AMRK US
Thesis: A-Mark’s counter-cyclical nature and strong position in precious metals make it a valuable hedge during financial crises.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/G5vApSSYlw
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Praetorian Capital on A-Mark $AMRK US
Thesis: A-Mark’s counter-cyclical nature and strong position in precious metals make it a valuable hedge during financial crises.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/G5vApSSYlw
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
BofA $BAC 24Q3 ROTCE 12.8%
NII +1% q/q, flattish y/y
Revenue flat q/q, +1% y/y
Expense +4% y/y
Pre-provision PBT -5%
Provisions flattish q/q, +$0.9bn y/y
PBT -10%,
Net Income -12%, EPS -10%
Shares +3% pre-market
1.6x P/TBV ($26.25) https://t.co/toZLEKBufX
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BofA $BAC 24Q3 ROTCE 12.8%
NII +1% q/q, flattish y/y
Revenue flat q/q, +1% y/y
Expense +4% y/y
Pre-provision PBT -5%
Provisions flattish q/q, +$0.9bn y/y
PBT -10%,
Net Income -12%, EPS -10%
Shares +3% pre-market
1.6x P/TBV ($26.25) https://t.co/toZLEKBufX
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Benefit of share repurchases is often overstated
They work if done at attractive valuation
This usually requires earnings to be growing anyway
Buybacks are especially risky for cyclical companies
Years when there is more cash for buybacks are often when stock is most expensive
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Benefit of share repurchases is often overstated
They work if done at attractive valuation
This usually requires earnings to be growing anyway
Buybacks are especially risky for cyclical companies
Years when there is more cash for buybacks are often when stock is most expensive
"Ulta Beauty: At the Wrong Side of a Capital Cycle"
We review this Q2 Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B investment ahead of next week’s investor day
$ULTA shares are back to 2022 levels
https://t.co/TRRyrLDXd8 https://t.co/gLMPZtT4cJ tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $ABT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.81x
•10-Year Mean: 22.74x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.09%
•10-Year Mean: 4.63%
As you can see, $ABT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~4% LESS in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ABT is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $7.22B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.21B
$ABT has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 13x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗➡️✅
•2019: 9.2%
•2020: 10.1%
•2021: 16.2%
•2022: 16.3%
•2023: 13.1%
•LTM: 13.5%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗➡️✅
•2019: 11.9%
•2020: 13.9%
•2021: 20.5%
•2022: 19.0%
•2023: 15.1%
•LTM: 14.4%
$ABT has decent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $19.66B
•2023: $40.11B
•CAGR: 7.39%
FREE CASH FLOW🆗
•2013: $2.18B
•2023: $5.06B
•CAGR: 8.78%
NORMALIZED EPS🆗
•2013: $2.01
•2023: $4.44
•CAGR: 8.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.57B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.75B
By increasing its shares outstanding 11.4%, $ABT diluted its EPS by 10.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 55.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 18.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 13.6%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.64
•2023: $2.08
•CAGR: 12.50%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~4% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ABT has to grow earnings at an 11.91% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than (11.91%) required growth rate:
2024E: $4.66 (5.0% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $5.14 (10.3% YoY)
2026E: $5.65 (9.9% YoY)
$ABT has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ABT ends 2026 with $5.65 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $135.60💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
23x P/E: $129.95💵 … ~6.8% CAGR
22x P/E: $124.30💵 … ~4.7% CAGR
21x P/E: $118.65💵 … ~2.6% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume well over 24x for $ABT to have attractive return potential, a multiple above what may be justified given its growth rate, leaving us with no margin of safety
Today at $117💵 $ABT appears to be fully valued
I’d re-consider $ABT closer to $95💵 (~19.50x multiple) roughly 18% below today’s share price
This is where I can reasonably expect ~12.5% CAGR assuming a more conservative 21x multiple based on 2026 earnings estimates
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $ABT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.81x
•10-Year Mean: 22.74x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.09%
•10-Year Mean: 4.63%
As you can see, $ABT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~4% LESS in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ABT is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $7.22B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.21B
$ABT has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 13x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗➡️✅
•2019: 9.2%
•2020: 10.1%
•2021: 16.2%
•2022: 16.3%
•2023: 13.1%
•LTM: 13.5%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗➡️✅
•2019: 11.9%
•2020: 13.9%
•2021: 20.5%
•2022: 19.0%
•2023: 15.1%
•LTM: 14.4%
$ABT has decent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $19.66B
•2023: $40.11B
•CAGR: 7.39%
FREE CASH FLOW🆗
•2013: $2.18B
•2023: $5.06B
•CAGR: 8.78%
NORMALIZED EPS🆗
•2013: $2.01
•2023: $4.44
•CAGR: 8.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.57B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.75B
By increasing its shares outstanding 11.4%, $ABT diluted its EPS by 10.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 55.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 18.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 13.6%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.64
•2023: $2.08
•CAGR: 12.50%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~4% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ABT has to grow earnings at an 11.91% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than (11.91%) required growth rate:
2024E: $4.66 (5.0% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $5.14 (10.3% YoY)
2026E: $5.65 (9.9% YoY)
$ABT has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ABT ends 2026 with $5.65 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $135.60💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
23x P/E: $129.95💵 … ~6.8% CAGR
22x P/E: $124.30💵 … ~4.7% CAGR
21x P/E: $118.65💵 … ~2.6% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume well over 24x for $ABT to have attractive return potential, a multiple above what may be justified given its growth rate, leaving us with no margin of safety
Today at $117💵 $ABT appears to be fully valued
I’d re-consider $ABT closer to $95💵 (~19.50x multiple) roughly 18% below today’s share price
This is where I can reasonably expect ~12.5% CAGR assuming a more conservative 21x multiple based on 2026 earnings estimates
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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