Offshore
Photo
Librarian Capital
Re-posting list of Fundsmith exits with proof of dates
Exited Diageo $DGE in Aug-24 after LAC over-stocking
Exited Estée Lauder $EL in Aug-23 after China blow-up
Exited Adobe $ADBE in Mar-23 after Figma deal
Exited PayPal $PYPL in Dec-22 after COVID bubble
(Thread) https://t.co/3u89oZMOlO
tweet
Re-posting list of Fundsmith exits with proof of dates
Exited Diageo $DGE in Aug-24 after LAC over-stocking
Exited Estée Lauder $EL in Aug-23 after China blow-up
Exited Adobe $ADBE in Mar-23 after Figma deal
Exited PayPal $PYPL in Dec-22 after COVID bubble
(Thread) https://t.co/3u89oZMOlO
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Librarian Capital
"The smaller the liquor bottle, the bigger the alcohol problem" (h/t yannispappas on Threads)
Similar logic also motivates minimum pack rules for cigarettes
In the US, it is illegal to sell cigarettes in packs of fewer than 20
(21 C.F.R. § 1140.16(b)) cc: $MO $BATS $IMB https://t.co/hoE5EnZzs6
tweet
"The smaller the liquor bottle, the bigger the alcohol problem" (h/t yannispappas on Threads)
Similar logic also motivates minimum pack rules for cigarettes
In the US, it is illegal to sell cigarettes in packs of fewer than 20
(21 C.F.R. § 1140.16(b)) cc: $MO $BATS $IMB https://t.co/hoE5EnZzs6
tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
WhatsApp founder Jan Koum explains why he charged $1 for the product to intentionally slow growth
Sam Altman recalls:
“I remember in 2011, people would say WhatsApp is never going to work because they charge a dollar and it’s a viral app and that’s just going to kill it right there.”
But Jan explains that charging $1 was a very intentional lever WhatsApp used to slow growth:
“I know it sounds very counterintuitive - why would you want to slow your growth? We wanted to slow our growth so we could better support our existing users. So we could build servers that don’t crash. So that we could build a product that doesn’t drop messages. So that we could answer their customer support emails.”
A lot of people told Jan and the WhatsApp team this was a bad strategy, but Jan compares it to what Facebook did in the early days: “They were doing colleges only, and they weren’t open to the entire world.”
WhatsApp wanted to do the same thing:
“We wanted to make sure that we have our existing users happy, and that when people sign up, they have a great experience, and that the app works, and it’s fast, and the servers are up and running all the time. And I think that worked for us because we were really able to focus on the product.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2014)
tweet
WhatsApp founder Jan Koum explains why he charged $1 for the product to intentionally slow growth
Sam Altman recalls:
“I remember in 2011, people would say WhatsApp is never going to work because they charge a dollar and it’s a viral app and that’s just going to kill it right there.”
But Jan explains that charging $1 was a very intentional lever WhatsApp used to slow growth:
“I know it sounds very counterintuitive - why would you want to slow your growth? We wanted to slow our growth so we could better support our existing users. So we could build servers that don’t crash. So that we could build a product that doesn’t drop messages. So that we could answer their customer support emails.”
A lot of people told Jan and the WhatsApp team this was a bad strategy, but Jan compares it to what Facebook did in the early days: “They were doing colleges only, and they weren’t open to the entire world.”
WhatsApp wanted to do the same thing:
“We wanted to make sure that we have our existing users happy, and that when people sign up, they have a great experience, and that the app works, and it’s fast, and the servers are up and running all the time. And I think that worked for us because we were really able to focus on the product.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2014)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Librarian Capital
Remember Dido Harding, after messes at TalkTalk and COVID Track & Trace, applied to head NHS England?
Even the Tories didn't go for it
Sharon White, after messes at Ofcom and John Lewis, now eyes the Cabinet Secretary job
FT gave her fawning lunch done by self-described "good friend", so they likely think she will get it
tweet
Remember Dido Harding, after messes at TalkTalk and COVID Track & Trace, applied to head NHS England?
Even the Tories didn't go for it
Sharon White, after messes at Ofcom and John Lewis, now eyes the Cabinet Secretary job
FT gave her fawning lunch done by self-described "good friend", so they likely think she will get it
John Lewis chair Sharon White: ‘I always ask: what’s the upside?’ https://t.co/5XTTiqE0Vj tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Given the $SAVE bankruptcy discussions today, here’s a friendly reminder WHY Airlines are the WORST type of investment you can make 👇🏽
#stocks #investing
tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: Given the $SAVE bankruptcy discussions today, here’s a friendly reminder WHY Airlines are the WORST type of investment you can make 👇🏽
#stocks #investing
WHY YOU SHOULD AVOID INVESTING IN AIRLINES ⚠️
First, let’s take a look at the last 5-year returns of 4 major airlines:
1) $AAL -67% (American Airlines)
2) $UAL -32% (United Airlines)
3) $JBLU -63% (JetBlue)
4) $DAL -34% (Delta)
Why do airlines post such poor results for investors? It’s simple. On average, here are the economics of the sector:
COST OF CAPITAL: ~8%
RETURN ON CAPITAL (ROIC): ~4%
Would you want to own a business that pays $8 just to receive $4 in return?
Of course not. Airlines BLEED MONEY EVERY DAY.
As Warren Buffett asserted in his 2007 Shareholder Letter $BRK.B $BRK.A:
“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think AIRLINES ... The airline industry's demand for capital ever since that first flight has been insatiable.
Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it. And I, to my shame, participated in this foolishness when I had Berkshire buy U.S. Air preferred stock in 1989.”
#stocks #investing tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: In last month’s post I stated: “Today at $753💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment”
Since then, $ASML is up +10% ✅ … is $ASML STILL A BUY❓…👇🏽
___
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth to be:
2024E: $20.68 (-5.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $32.04 (54.9% YoY)
2026E: $37.54 (17.2% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ASML ends 2026 with $37.54 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $1126.20💵 … ~15.2% CAGR
29x P/E: $1088.66💵 … ~13.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $1052.12💵 … ~11.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $1013.58💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $976.04💵 … ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume greater or equal to 27x earnings (well below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality & growth rate)
However we should be aware that, while $ASML is a wide-moat business, we’ll be relying on fairly aggressive growth estimates in 2025 & these kinds of estimates should always be taken with caution
Today at $832.41💵 $ASML STILL appears to be a good consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
However, today we have less of a margin of safety given that we’ll need to rely on 27x (rather than 25x at last month’s $753💵 price)
Given its volatility, it’s always wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the short-term 💵
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲."
A sober valuation analysis on $ASML 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
•10-Year Mean: 31.11x
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $5.38B
•Long-Term Debt: $4.94B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 34x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 17.5%
•2020: 21.6%
•2021: 43.8%
•2022: 48.0%
•2023: 48.7%
•LTM: 39.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 49.0%
•2022: 59.4%
•2023: 70.4%
•LTM: 48.6%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.22B
•2023: $30.42B
•CAGR: 15.46%
FREE CASH FLOW*
• $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isn’t necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the company’s value
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $3.17
•2023: $21.65
•CAGR: 21.18%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 424.90M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 393.55M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.3%, $ASML inc[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: In last month’s post I stated: “Today at $753💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment”
Since then, $ASML is up +10% ✅ … is $ASML STILL A BUY❓…👇🏽
___
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth to be:
2024E: $20.68 (-5.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $32.04 (54.9% YoY)
2026E: $37.54 (17.2% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ASML ends 2026 with $37.54 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $1126.20💵 … ~15.2% CAGR
29x P/E: $1088.66💵 … ~13.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $1052.12💵 … ~11.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $1013.58💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $976.04💵 … ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume greater or equal to 27x earnings (well below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality & growth rate)
However we should be aware that, while $ASML is a wide-moat business, we’ll be relying on fairly aggressive growth estimates in 2025 & these kinds of estimates should always be taken with caution
Today at $832.41💵 $ASML STILL appears to be a good consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
However, today we have less of a margin of safety given that we’ll need to rely on 27x (rather than 25x at last month’s $753💵 price)
Given its volatility, it’s always wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the short-term 💵
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲."
A sober valuation analysis on $ASML 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
•10-Year Mean: 31.11x
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $5.38B
•Long-Term Debt: $4.94B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 34x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 17.5%
•2020: 21.6%
•2021: 43.8%
•2022: 48.0%
•2023: 48.7%
•LTM: 39.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 49.0%
•2022: 59.4%
•2023: 70.4%
•LTM: 48.6%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.22B
•2023: $30.42B
•CAGR: 15.46%
FREE CASH FLOW*
• $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isn’t necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the company’s value
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $3.17
•2023: $21.65
•CAGR: 21.18%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 424.90M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 393.55M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.3%, $ASML inc[...]