Offshore
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Alex Bilzerian
RT @mhartl: @alexbilz This reminds me of Bertrand Russell’s decision not to commit suicide because he wanted to learn more mathematics. https://t.co/wYAC2wg4c7 https://t.co/m7old4AvRj
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RT @mhartl: @alexbilz This reminds me of Bertrand Russell’s decision not to commit suicide because he wanted to learn more mathematics. https://t.co/wYAC2wg4c7 https://t.co/m7old4AvRj
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Fundsmith exited Kone $KNEBV in Aug-22. Down -0.8% in Aug, vs. MSCI World +0.2% (in £); down -12.4% YTD, vs. MSCI World -4.3%. Top 10largely unchanged, w/ $WAT & $SKY (were #9 & 10) leaving, replaced by $ADP (#6) & $PEP (#10) (both top 5 contributors in Aug). 1.1% cash (was 0.7%) https://t.co/PsV2dFJv51
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Fundsmith exited Kone $KNEBV in Aug-22. Down -0.8% in Aug, vs. MSCI World +0.2% (in £); down -12.4% YTD, vs. MSCI World -4.3%. Top 10largely unchanged, w/ $WAT & $SKY (were #9 & 10) leaving, replaced by $ADP (#6) & $PEP (#10) (both top 5 contributors in Aug). 1.1% cash (was 0.7%) https://t.co/PsV2dFJv51
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Offshore
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Capital Employed
RT @capitalemployed: 39 stock pitches we’ve enjoyed reading in the past two weeks… 👇
(Plenty of ideas to get stuck into).
https://t.co/p3VsAtGu7t https://t.co/pT4hes7Ays
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RT @capitalemployed: 39 stock pitches we’ve enjoyed reading in the past two weeks… 👇
(Plenty of ideas to get stuck into).
https://t.co/p3VsAtGu7t https://t.co/pT4hes7Ays
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Offshore
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Capital Employed
A great write-up on an Italian small cap by @mavix_leon
$PWS – Powersoft SpA 🇮🇹
Provides a range of products, such as power amplifiers, speaker's electronics and audio software. 🔻
https://t.co/ppHRYvK2De
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A great write-up on an Italian small cap by @mavix_leon
$PWS – Powersoft SpA 🇮🇹
Provides a range of products, such as power amplifiers, speaker's electronics and audio software. 🔻
https://t.co/ppHRYvK2De
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Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: What is your take on China's market?
- A short-term rally
- 1+ year long recovery
- Don't know,still learning
- China is 'uninvestable'
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RT @HiddenValueGems: What is your take on China's market?
- A short-term rally
- 1+ year long recovery
- Don't know,still learning
- China is 'uninvestable'
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Alex Bilzerian
How else would science work?
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How else would science work?
@datarade Physical theories always being provisional and subject to revision based on new empirical data is a good thing! tweet
twitter.com
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Alex Bilzerian
RT @markham: When you send the text to the person the text is about (cc @phlaimeaux)
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RT @markham: When you send the text to the person the text is about (cc @phlaimeaux)
A VC firm I had a Zoom meeting with used Otter AI to record the call, and after the meeting, it automatically emailed me the transcript, including hours of their private conversations afterward, where they discussed intimate, confidential details about their business. tweet
twitter.com
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
In last month’s post I stated: “Today at $149.50💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $GOOG is up +13% ✅ … is $GOOG STILL A BUY? 👇🏽
___
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS to be:
2024E: $7.64 (31.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.69 (13.8% YoY)
2026E: $10.03 (15.4% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $10.03 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $229.31💵 … ~15.3% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.34💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
21x P/E: $209.37💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
20x P/E: $199.40💵 … ~8.4% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume >21 earnings (a multiple well below its 5-year & 10-year mean, albeit with a bit less margin of safety compared to last month)
A 21x multiple for $GOOG is not unreasonable, let alone 22x - 23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $169💵 $GOOG still appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing $GOOGL"
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 18.63x
•10-Year Mean: 24.56x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.59%
•10-Year Mean: 4.34%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~31% MORE in earnings per share & ~6% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $100.73B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 303x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 30.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 30.9%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $55.52B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 18.66%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $11.30B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 19.91%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 10.22%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.58B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 57.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 31.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~31% MORE in EPS & ~16% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 9.32% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.32%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.63 (31.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.69 (14.0% YoY)
2026E: $9.97 (14.8% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $229.31💵 … ~20.5% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.34💵 … ~18.3% CAGR
21x P/E: $209.37💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $199.40💵 … ~13.6% CAGR
19x P/E: $189.43💵 … ~11.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >19x earnings (a multiple well below its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At >20x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $149.50💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing $GOOGL
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 �[...]
In last month’s post I stated: “Today at $149.50💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $GOOG is up +13% ✅ … is $GOOG STILL A BUY? 👇🏽
___
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS to be:
2024E: $7.64 (31.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.69 (13.8% YoY)
2026E: $10.03 (15.4% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $10.03 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $229.31💵 … ~15.3% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.34💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
21x P/E: $209.37💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
20x P/E: $199.40💵 … ~8.4% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume >21 earnings (a multiple well below its 5-year & 10-year mean, albeit with a bit less margin of safety compared to last month)
A 21x multiple for $GOOG is not unreasonable, let alone 22x - 23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $169💵 $GOOG still appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing $GOOGL"
A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 18.63x
•10-Year Mean: 24.56x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.59%
•10-Year Mean: 4.34%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~31% MORE in earnings per share & ~6% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $100.73B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 303x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.4%
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 28.1%
•LTM: 30.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.1%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•LTM: 30.9%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $55.52B
•2023: $307.39
•CAGR: 18.66%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $11.30B
•2023: $69.50B
•CAGR: 19.91%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.19
•2023: $5.80
•CAGR: 10.22%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.58B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 57.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 31.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~31% MORE in EPS & ~16% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 9.32% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.32%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.63 (31.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.69 (14.0% YoY)
2026E: $9.97 (14.8% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $229.31💵 … ~20.5% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.34💵 … ~18.3% CAGR
21x P/E: $209.37💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $199.40💵 … ~13.6% CAGR
19x P/E: $189.43💵 … ~11.2% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >19x earnings (a multiple well below its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At >20x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & it’s not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $149.50💵 $GOOG appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing $GOOGL
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 �[...]