Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Rightmove $RMV: Among top shareholders listed in 2023 annual, 4 are active investors who have been owners who also appeared in 2012
They've there for 10+ years, incl. in 2021 when RMV hit ~800p
Together the 4 own ~19% of shares
Lindsell Train, known to support mgmt., owns ~7% https://t.co/Dtchh767f4
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Rightmove $RMV: Among top shareholders listed in 2023 annual, 4 are active investors who have been owners who also appeared in 2012
They've there for 10+ years, incl. in 2021 when RMV hit ~800p
Together the 4 own ~19% of shares
Lindsell Train, known to support mgmt., owns ~7% https://t.co/Dtchh767f4
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Horizon Kinetics on LandBridge $LB
Thesis: strategic position in the Permian Basin offers a compelling opportunity for IT and AI infrastructure development, with significant royalty-type revenue potential
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link to the full analysis in SAC#57) https://t.co/GPzIJfAil8
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Horizon Kinetics on LandBridge $LB
Thesis: strategic position in the Permian Basin offers a compelling opportunity for IT and AI infrastructure development, with significant royalty-type revenue potential
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link to the full analysis in SAC#57) https://t.co/GPzIJfAil8
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
% of consumers preferring to buy insurance online is highest in the UK (76%) among 17 markets surveyed
US is about average (48%), offset by a above-average portion of "don't know" (13%)
Italy, Spain and France are meaningfully lower at ~40%
re $ADM $PGR https://t.co/5prtrOlEJ2
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% of consumers preferring to buy insurance online is highest in the UK (76%) among 17 markets surveyed
US is about average (48%), offset by a above-average portion of "don't know" (13%)
Italy, Spain and France are meaningfully lower at ~40%
re $ADM $PGR https://t.co/5prtrOlEJ2
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Hayden Capital on Applovin $APP US
Thesis: AppLovin's high-margin ad platform is driving massive revenue growth, with significant future potential in AI-driven advertising and a highly efficient data model
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link to the full analysis in SAC#57) https://t.co/tio3bU5DzB
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Hayden Capital on Applovin $APP US
Thesis: AppLovin's high-margin ad platform is driving massive revenue growth, with significant future potential in AI-driven advertising and a highly efficient data model
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link to the full analysis in SAC#57) https://t.co/tio3bU5DzB
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Vitaliy Katsenelson on Charter $CHTR
"Fixed wireless has taken all the share it will take"
Easier for cable to add wireless subs. than vice versa
Verizon Frontier acq. "sign of supreme desperation"
CEO: "We build the company for our grandchildren"
IMA sees 2028 FCF/share $48-60
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Vitaliy Katsenelson on Charter $CHTR
"Fixed wireless has taken all the share it will take"
Easier for cable to add wireless subs. than vice versa
Verizon Frontier acq. "sign of supreme desperation"
CEO: "We build the company for our grandchildren"
IMA sees 2028 FCF/share $48-60
My latest thoughts on Charter Communications (CHTR) and Liberty Broadband. https://t.co/bavL14MHpW tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Donald Trump just said that he plans to request Google prosecution when elected.
We have seen Marjorie Taylor Greene buy up to $30K of Google stock this month. https://t.co/L7Zx2UWewC
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BREAKING: Donald Trump just said that he plans to request Google prosecution when elected.
We have seen Marjorie Taylor Greene buy up to $30K of Google stock this month. https://t.co/L7Zx2UWewC
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AkhenOsiris
Mideast conflict keeps escalating instead of toning down
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Mideast conflict keeps escalating instead of toning down
BREAKING: The target of the strike on Beirut was Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah - FOX News - Faytuks Newstweet
Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Orbis on Cinemark $CNK US
Thesis: Cinemark is poised for a strong recovery as the film industry normalizes, with its prudent debt management positioning the company for significant upside
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link to the full analysis in SAC#57) https://t.co/8juPMnk3rN
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Orbis on Cinemark $CNK US
Thesis: Cinemark is poised for a strong recovery as the film industry normalizes, with its prudent debt management positioning the company for significant upside
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link to the full analysis in SAC#57) https://t.co/8juPMnk3rN
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.71
•15-Year Mean: 23.95x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.74%
•10-Year Mean: 2.85%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~28% MORE in operating cash flow & ~4% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $89.09B
•Long-Term Debt: $61.78B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 39x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 13.8%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 21.9%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.64B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 9.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.4%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~28% MORE in OCF & ~4% LESS in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E because Amazon's (AMZN) share price has historically shown a stronger correlation with Operating Cash Flow (OCF), as evident in the first attached graph
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:
2024E: $11.20 (38% YoY)
2025E: $13.22 (18% YoY)
2026E: $16.53 (25% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.53 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18.54x P/OCF: $306.44💵 … ~22.3% CAGR
16.68x P/OCF: $275.80💵 … ~16.8% CAGR
14.83x P/OCF: $245.16💵 … ~10.8% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~14.83x P/OCF, a multiple below what it’s trading for today, a multiple it hasn’t treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈
2024E: $54.59B (48% YoY)
2025E: $71.89B (32% YoY)
2026E: $95.63B (33% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:
☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B
Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $193💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.71
•15-Year Mean: 23.95x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.74%
•10-Year Mean: 2.85%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~28% MORE in operating cash flow & ~4% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $89.09B
•Long-Term Debt: $61.78B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 39x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 13.8%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 21.9%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.64B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 9.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 7.4%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~28% MORE in OCF & ~4% LESS in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E because Amazon's (AMZN) share price has historically shown a stronger correlation with Operating Cash Flow (OCF), as evident in the first attached graph
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:
2024E: $11.20 (38% YoY)
2025E: $13.22 (18% YoY)
2026E: $16.53 (25% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.53 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18.54x P/OCF: $306.44💵 … ~22.3% CAGR
16.68x P/OCF: $275.80💵 … ~16.8% CAGR
14.83x P/OCF: $245.16💵 … ~10.8% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~14.83x P/OCF, a multiple below what it’s trading for today, a multiple it hasn’t treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈
2024E: $54.59B (48% YoY)
2025E: $71.89B (32% YoY)
2026E: $95.63B (33% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Half Year 2024:
☁️AWS revenue: $51.31B
📈Ads revenue: $24.59B
Combined, these segments generated $75.90B net revenue (annualized = $151.80B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $193💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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