Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Two-year anniversary of this masterpiece by Merryn Somerset Webb after the Kwasi Kwarteng mini budget
"The Bank of England might be about to get lucky with Liz Truss"
https://t.co/Wm0hwSY0PX https://t.co/dylzYNJWBo
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Two-year anniversary of this masterpiece by Merryn Somerset Webb after the Kwasi Kwarteng mini budget
"The Bank of England might be about to get lucky with Liz Truss"
https://t.co/Wm0hwSY0PX https://t.co/dylzYNJWBo
tweet
Offshore
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Librarian Capital
"Echo chamber" is only a concern if you let algos decide what you read; I use mostly the "following" tab
When AI can generate plausible-sounding content, it's critical to focus on curated sources
I often find new content by ticker search; but I also block any bad accounts I see https://t.co/tESWZhjOA6
tweet
"Echo chamber" is only a concern if you let algos decide what you read; I use mostly the "following" tab
When AI can generate plausible-sounding content, it's critical to focus on curated sources
I often find new content by ticker search; but I also block any bad accounts I see https://t.co/tESWZhjOA6
tweet
Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Smithson on Reply $REY IM
With deep expertise in AI integration and long-standing corporate relationships, Reply’s recurring revenue model offers a unique blend of stability and growth
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/qRWa7weFI6
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Smithson on Reply $REY IM
With deep expertise in AI integration and long-standing corporate relationships, Reply’s recurring revenue model offers a unique blend of stability and growth
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/qRWa7weFI6
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $MEDP 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.52x
•5-Year Mean: 30.15x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.91%
•5-Year Mean: 3.98%
As you can see, $MEDP appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~2% MORE in earnings per share & ~2% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MEDP is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $510.89M
•Long-Term Debt: $0
$MEDP has a great balance sheet & 3.51x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.0%
•2020: 17.6%
•2021: 18.0%
•2022: 46.8%
•2023: 46.4%
•LTM: 41.5%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 15.3%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 20.7%
•2022: 36.6%
•2023: 59.8%
•LTM: 58.9%
$MED has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $704.59M
•2023: $1.88B
•CAGR: 21.76%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $140.56M
•2023: $502.80M
•CAGR: 29.0%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.81
•2023: $8.92
•CAGR: 25.98%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 36.91M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 31.93M
By reducing its shares outstanding 13.5%, $MEDP increased its EPS by 15.6% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 18.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~2% MORE in EPS & ~2% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MEDP has to grow earnings at a 14.76% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than (14.76%) required growth rate:
2024E: $11.83 (32.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $13.42 (13.5% YoY)
2026E: $15.43 (15.0% YoY)
$MEDP has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $MEDP ends 2026 with $15.43 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $462.90💵 … ~10.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $447.47💵 … ~9.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $432.04💵 … ~7.6% CAGR
27x P/E: $416.61💵 … ~5.9% CAGR
As you can see, $MEDP appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >30x earnings, a valuation that may not be justified by its growth rate & one that’s subject to multiple compression if the growth rate slows (which is expected for 2025-2026 vs 2018-2023)
Today at $365.70💵 $MEDP appears to be a “hold”
I’d consider $MEDP closer to $330💵(~26.70x NTM EPS), or roughly 9.5% below today’s share price
This is where I can reasonably expect ~11% CAGR assuming a more conservative 27x 2026 earnings estimates
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $MEDP 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.52x
•5-Year Mean: 30.15x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.91%
•5-Year Mean: 3.98%
As you can see, $MEDP appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~2% MORE in earnings per share & ~2% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MEDP is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $510.89M
•Long-Term Debt: $0
$MEDP has a great balance sheet & 3.51x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.0%
•2020: 17.6%
•2021: 18.0%
•2022: 46.8%
•2023: 46.4%
•LTM: 41.5%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 15.3%
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 20.7%
•2022: 36.6%
•2023: 59.8%
•LTM: 58.9%
$MED has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $704.59M
•2023: $1.88B
•CAGR: 21.76%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $140.56M
•2023: $502.80M
•CAGR: 29.0%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.81
•2023: $8.92
•CAGR: 25.98%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 36.91M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 31.93M
By reducing its shares outstanding 13.5%, $MEDP increased its EPS by 15.6% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 18.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~2% MORE in EPS & ~2% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MEDP has to grow earnings at a 14.76% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than (14.76%) required growth rate:
2024E: $11.83 (32.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $13.42 (13.5% YoY)
2026E: $15.43 (15.0% YoY)
$MEDP has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $MEDP ends 2026 with $15.43 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $462.90💵 … ~10.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $447.47💵 … ~9.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $432.04💵 … ~7.6% CAGR
27x P/E: $416.61💵 … ~5.9% CAGR
As you can see, $MEDP appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >30x earnings, a valuation that may not be justified by its growth rate & one that’s subject to multiple compression if the growth rate slows (which is expected for 2025-2026 vs 2018-2023)
Today at $365.70💵 $MEDP appears to be a “hold”
I’d consider $MEDP closer to $330💵(~26.70x NTM EPS), or roughly 9.5% below today’s share price
This is where I can reasonably expect ~11% CAGR assuming a more conservative 27x 2026 earnings estimates
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $LVMH 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.63x
•10-Year Mean: 23.95x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.79%
•10-Year Mean: 4.12%
As you can see, $LVMH appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~22% MORE in earnings per share & ~16% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $LVMH is a high-quality business
*Financials In Euros €*
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: €11.10B
•Long-Term Debt: €11.65B
$LVMH has a strong balance sheet, reflected by its AA- S&P Credit Rating & 16.64x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.6%
•2020: 10.2%
•2021: 18.9%
•2022: 21.2%
•2023: 21.0%
•LTM: 19.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.5%
•2020: 12.8%
•2021: 28.9%
•2022: 28.0%
•2023: 26.7%
•LTM: 23.2%
$LVMH has excellent return metrics, highlighting the company’s financial efficiency
REVENUES✅
•2013: €29.02B
•2023: €86.15B
•CAGR: 11.49%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2012: €2.99B
•2022: €11.59B
•CAGR: 14.50%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: €6.83
•2023: €30.33
•CAGR: 16.07%
SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 503.22M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 499.59M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 68.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 25.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.3
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~22% more in EPS & ~16% more in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $LVMH has to grow earnings at a 9.32% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than (9.32%) the required growth rate:
2024E: €29.71 (-2.0% YoY) FY Dec
2025E: €32.86 (10.6% YoY)
2026E: €35.66 (8.5% YoY)
So, let’s assume $LVMH ends 2026 with €35.66 in EPS & see its CAGR potential (dividends included) assuming different multiples:
22x P/E: €784.52💵 … ~14.9% CAGR
21x P/E: €748.86💵 … ~12.7% CAGR
20x P/E: €713.20💵 … ~10.3% CAGR
19x P/E: €677.54💵 … ~7.9% CAGR
18x P/E: €641.88💵 … ~5.4% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume that $LVMH will trade >20x for $LVMH to compound at an attractive rate given today’s assumptions — a multiple justified by its moat, quality, & growth rate
You’ll also notice that 18x - 20x earnings serves as a strong level of fundamental support, implying that investors buying today could have a strong margin of safety
Today at €597💵 $LVMH appears to be a strong consideration for investment
Yet, I’d still be inclined to buy in tranches, e.g. 1/2 the position at €597💵 & the other 1/2 if it trades for €547💵 (18x NTM estimates)
$MC $LVMHF $LVMUY
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $LVMH 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.63x
•10-Year Mean: 23.95x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.79%
•10-Year Mean: 4.12%
As you can see, $LVMH appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~22% MORE in earnings per share & ~16% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $LVMH is a high-quality business
*Financials In Euros €*
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: €11.10B
•Long-Term Debt: €11.65B
$LVMH has a strong balance sheet, reflected by its AA- S&P Credit Rating & 16.64x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.6%
•2020: 10.2%
•2021: 18.9%
•2022: 21.2%
•2023: 21.0%
•LTM: 19.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.5%
•2020: 12.8%
•2021: 28.9%
•2022: 28.0%
•2023: 26.7%
•LTM: 23.2%
$LVMH has excellent return metrics, highlighting the company’s financial efficiency
REVENUES✅
•2013: €29.02B
•2023: €86.15B
•CAGR: 11.49%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2012: €2.99B
•2022: €11.59B
•CAGR: 14.50%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: €6.83
•2023: €30.33
•CAGR: 16.07%
SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 503.22M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 499.59M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 68.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 25.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.3
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~22% more in EPS & ~16% more in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $LVMH has to grow earnings at a 9.32% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than (9.32%) the required growth rate:
2024E: €29.71 (-2.0% YoY) FY Dec
2025E: €32.86 (10.6% YoY)
2026E: €35.66 (8.5% YoY)
So, let’s assume $LVMH ends 2026 with €35.66 in EPS & see its CAGR potential (dividends included) assuming different multiples:
22x P/E: €784.52💵 … ~14.9% CAGR
21x P/E: €748.86💵 … ~12.7% CAGR
20x P/E: €713.20💵 … ~10.3% CAGR
19x P/E: €677.54💵 … ~7.9% CAGR
18x P/E: €641.88💵 … ~5.4% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume that $LVMH will trade >20x for $LVMH to compound at an attractive rate given today’s assumptions — a multiple justified by its moat, quality, & growth rate
You’ll also notice that 18x - 20x earnings serves as a strong level of fundamental support, implying that investors buying today could have a strong margin of safety
Today at €597💵 $LVMH appears to be a strong consideration for investment
Yet, I’d still be inclined to buy in tranches, e.g. 1/2 the position at €597💵 & the other 1/2 if it trades for €547💵 (18x NTM estimates)
$MC $LVMHF $LVMUY
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Greenhaven Road on PAR $PAR US
PAR’s rapid transformation, new customer wins, and strategic acquisitions position it for exponential growth in the fast-evolving point-of-sale market
(Extract from their Q2 letter)
https://t.co/eJN5ww6PEz https://t.co/Zg09P5b7g4
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Greenhaven Road on PAR $PAR US
PAR’s rapid transformation, new customer wins, and strategic acquisitions position it for exponential growth in the fast-evolving point-of-sale market
(Extract from their Q2 letter)
https://t.co/eJN5ww6PEz https://t.co/Zg09P5b7g4
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Potential new Pershing Square $PSH $PSUS shorts?
Bill Ackman: "I never understood why the plaintiff bar has never brought suit against Cocla-Cola $KO and Pepsi $PEP for misleading advertising and consumer harm" https://t.co/NBFofmXXEI
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Potential new Pershing Square $PSH $PSUS shorts?
Bill Ackman: "I never understood why the plaintiff bar has never brought suit against Cocla-Cola $KO and Pepsi $PEP for misleading advertising and consumer harm" https://t.co/NBFofmXXEI
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