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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: PayPal $PYPL is up +5.44% in the last five days & up +19.07% YTD โฆ is $PYPL still undervalued? ๐๐ฝ
Letโs have a look at the earnings estimates:
2024E: $4.41 (-13.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.83 (+9.5% YoY)
2026E: $5.40 (+11.7% YoY)
$PYPL has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $BKNG ends 2026 with $5.40 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
20x P/E: $108.00๐ต โฆ ~18.6% CAGR
19x P/E: $102.60๐ต โฆ ~16.0% CAGR
18x P/E: $97.20๐ต โฆ ~13.3% CAGR
17x P/E: $91.80๐ต โฆ ~10.5% CAGR
As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >17x earnings, a valuation below what maybe justified by its renewed growth rate & a multiple below its historical averages
Despite its recent rally, $PYPL at $74๐ต appears to still be a decent consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: PayPal $PYPL is up +5.44% in the last five days & up +19.07% YTD โฆ is $PYPL still undervalued? ๐๐ฝ
Letโs have a look at the earnings estimates:
2024E: $4.41 (-13.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.83 (+9.5% YoY)
2026E: $5.40 (+11.7% YoY)
$PYPL has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $BKNG ends 2026 with $5.40 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
20x P/E: $108.00๐ต โฆ ~18.6% CAGR
19x P/E: $102.60๐ต โฆ ~16.0% CAGR
18x P/E: $97.20๐ต โฆ ~13.3% CAGR
17x P/E: $91.80๐ต โฆ ~10.5% CAGR
As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >17x earnings, a valuation below what maybe justified by its renewed growth rate & a multiple below its historical averages
Despite its recent rally, $PYPL at $74๐ต appears to still be a decent consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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Offshore
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Aswath Damodaran (Youtube)
Fed up with Fed Talk: Central Banking Fairy Tales and Facts!
In the aftermath of the Fed's decision to lower the Fed Funds rate by half a percent on September 16, 2024, I looked at widely held myths about the Fed (and central banks, in general) - that they set interest rates (they don't), that they are market leaders (they are followers), that they send signals to investors and businesses (they do, but they are murky) and that they are stock market whisperers (not true). I use the data on Fed Funds rates, interest rates and stock prices to make my case, but the bottom line is that the Fed's power comes from the perception that it has power, rather than its capacity to move markets.
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/FedDelusions.pdf
Blog Post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/09/fed-up-with-fed-talk-central-banks.html
Data on Fed Funds rates, interest rates and stock prices: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/FedIntRates.xlsx
Fed up with Fed Talk: Central Banking Fairy Tales and Facts!
In the aftermath of the Fed's decision to lower the Fed Funds rate by half a percent on September 16, 2024, I looked at widely held myths about the Fed (and central banks, in general) - that they set interest rates (they don't), that they are market leaders (they are followers), that they send signals to investors and businesses (they do, but they are murky) and that they are stock market whisperers (not true). I use the data on Fed Funds rates, interest rates and stock prices to make my case, but the bottom line is that the Fed's power comes from the perception that it has power, rather than its capacity to move markets.
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/FedDelusions.pdf
Blog Post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/09/fed-up-with-fed-talk-central-banks.html
Data on Fed Funds rates, interest rates and stock prices: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/FedIntRates.xlsx
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
River Oaks Capital on Boston Omaha $BOMN US
Boston Omahaโs deep asset portfolio and significant free cash flow generation offer investors high downside protection with attractive growth potential
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/qQtis6CjFb
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River Oaks Capital on Boston Omaha $BOMN US
Boston Omahaโs deep asset portfolio and significant free cash flow generation offer investors high downside protection with attractive growth potential
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/qQtis6CjFb
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โ Hidden Value Gems
I have heard people mention that FTSE performed as well as NASDAQ recently, but I could never find that strong "FTSE" or that weak "NASDAQ". Not sure what they really refer to...๐คท๐ฝโโ๏ธ
The latest comment is from @MerrynSW podcast with the Fidelity PM, Alex Wright. https://t.co/aeGVAKDh1l
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I have heard people mention that FTSE performed as well as NASDAQ recently, but I could never find that strong "FTSE" or that weak "NASDAQ". Not sure what they really refer to...๐คท๐ฝโโ๏ธ
The latest comment is from @MerrynSW podcast with the Fidelity PM, Alex Wright. https://t.co/aeGVAKDh1l
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Arauca Capital on Shelly Group $SLYG BU
Shellyโs strategic acquisition of LOQED and its entry into the smart lock market provide an exciting new growth vertical at minimal cost, offering significant upside potential
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/rm3ySU78Qv
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Arauca Capital on Shelly Group $SLYG BU
Shellyโs strategic acquisition of LOQED and its entry into the smart lock market provide an exciting new growth vertical at minimal cost, offering significant upside potential
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/rm3ySU78Qv
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โ Librarian Capital
Tobacco: US states that have e-cig directories & states that have legalised cannabis
6 legalised for medical use (UT, OK, LA, AL, FL, KY)
3 for recreation: CA, CO, VA
1 decriminalised: NE
Across 50 states, 38 legalised for medical (incl. 24 for recreational)
$BATS $BTI $MO https://t.co/BSXm4laGov
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Tobacco: US states that have e-cig directories & states that have legalised cannabis
6 legalised for medical use (UT, OK, LA, AL, FL, KY)
3 for recreation: CA, CO, VA
1 decriminalised: NE
Across 50 states, 38 legalised for medical (incl. 24 for recreational)
$BATS $BTI $MO https://t.co/BSXm4laGov
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Emeth Value Capital on Barratt Dev $BDEV LN
Barrattโ substantial land portfolio and strong cash position provide significant downside protection, with potential for a 35% cash margin on home sales if land operations are halted
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/gHC7vQJVJn
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Emeth Value Capital on Barratt Dev $BDEV LN
Barrattโ substantial land portfolio and strong cash position provide significant downside protection, with potential for a 35% cash margin on home sales if land operations are halted
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/gHC7vQJVJn
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