Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
“We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.”
— Warren Buffett 🗣️
This profound quote highlights the crucial role of discipline in investing. It's not about being the most intelligent or having the best market insights; it's about cultivating the mental toughness to stick to your strategy, even when emotions run high.
In investing, discipline is often the greatest advantage. It allows you to:
1️⃣ Stay focused on long-term goals
2️⃣ Ignore short-term market fluctuations
3️⃣ Avoid impulsive decisions
4️⃣ Benefit from compounding returns
Consider Amazon $AMZN as a prime example. Over the past decade:
❌UNDISCIPLINED Investors may have:
•Sold shares during moments of volatility
•Missed out on substantial gains
• Rebought shares at higher prices
✅ DISCIPLINED Investors may have:
•Bought shares 10 years ago and held
• Weathered market downturns
•Benefited from Amazon's explosive growth (10-year return: ~1,000%)
•Harnessed the power of compounding returns
___
THE DIFFERENCE in results is staggering:
•A $10,000 investment in Amazon 10 years ago would be worth around $110,000 today
•Conversely, an undisciplined investor may have realized significantly lower returns or even losses
___
Warren Buffett's quote serves as a reminder that investing success is often more about temperament than intellect 🧘🏽♂️
#stocks #investing
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“We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest.”
— Warren Buffett 🗣️
This profound quote highlights the crucial role of discipline in investing. It's not about being the most intelligent or having the best market insights; it's about cultivating the mental toughness to stick to your strategy, even when emotions run high.
In investing, discipline is often the greatest advantage. It allows you to:
1️⃣ Stay focused on long-term goals
2️⃣ Ignore short-term market fluctuations
3️⃣ Avoid impulsive decisions
4️⃣ Benefit from compounding returns
Consider Amazon $AMZN as a prime example. Over the past decade:
❌UNDISCIPLINED Investors may have:
•Sold shares during moments of volatility
•Missed out on substantial gains
• Rebought shares at higher prices
✅ DISCIPLINED Investors may have:
•Bought shares 10 years ago and held
• Weathered market downturns
•Benefited from Amazon's explosive growth (10-year return: ~1,000%)
•Harnessed the power of compounding returns
___
THE DIFFERENCE in results is staggering:
•A $10,000 investment in Amazon 10 years ago would be worth around $110,000 today
•Conversely, an undisciplined investor may have realized significantly lower returns or even losses
___
Warren Buffett's quote serves as a reminder that investing success is often more about temperament than intellect 🧘🏽♂️
#stocks #investing
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: PayPal $PYPL is up +5.44% in the last five days & up +19.07% YTD … is $PYPL still undervalued? 👇🏽
Let’s have a look at the earnings estimates:
2024E: $4.41 (-13.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.83 (+9.5% YoY)
2026E: $5.40 (+11.7% YoY)
$PYPL has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $BKNG ends 2026 with $5.40 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
20x P/E: $108.00💵 … ~18.6% CAGR
19x P/E: $102.60💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
18x P/E: $97.20💵 … ~13.3% CAGR
17x P/E: $91.80💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >17x earnings, a valuation below what maybe justified by its renewed growth rate & a multiple below its historical averages
Despite its recent rally, $PYPL at $74💵 appears to still be a decent consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: PayPal $PYPL is up +5.44% in the last five days & up +19.07% YTD … is $PYPL still undervalued? 👇🏽
Let’s have a look at the earnings estimates:
2024E: $4.41 (-13.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.83 (+9.5% YoY)
2026E: $5.40 (+11.7% YoY)
$PYPL has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $BKNG ends 2026 with $5.40 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
20x P/E: $108.00💵 … ~18.6% CAGR
19x P/E: $102.60💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
18x P/E: $97.20💵 … ~13.3% CAGR
17x P/E: $91.80💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >17x earnings, a valuation below what maybe justified by its renewed growth rate & a multiple below its historical averages
Despite its recent rally, $PYPL at $74💵 appears to still be a decent consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
Video
Aswath Damodaran (Youtube)
Fed up with Fed Talk: Central Banking Fairy Tales and Facts!
In the aftermath of the Fed's decision to lower the Fed Funds rate by half a percent on September 16, 2024, I looked at widely held myths about the Fed (and central banks, in general) - that they set interest rates (they don't), that they are market leaders (they are followers), that they send signals to investors and businesses (they do, but they are murky) and that they are stock market whisperers (not true). I use the data on Fed Funds rates, interest rates and stock prices to make my case, but the bottom line is that the Fed's power comes from the perception that it has power, rather than its capacity to move markets.
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/FedDelusions.pdf
Blog Post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/09/fed-up-with-fed-talk-central-banks.html
Data on Fed Funds rates, interest rates and stock prices: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/FedIntRates.xlsx
Fed up with Fed Talk: Central Banking Fairy Tales and Facts!
In the aftermath of the Fed's decision to lower the Fed Funds rate by half a percent on September 16, 2024, I looked at widely held myths about the Fed (and central banks, in general) - that they set interest rates (they don't), that they are market leaders (they are followers), that they send signals to investors and businesses (they do, but they are murky) and that they are stock market whisperers (not true). I use the data on Fed Funds rates, interest rates and stock prices to make my case, but the bottom line is that the Fed's power comes from the perception that it has power, rather than its capacity to move markets.
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/FedDelusions.pdf
Blog Post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/09/fed-up-with-fed-talk-central-banks.html
Data on Fed Funds rates, interest rates and stock prices: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/FedIntRates.xlsx
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Stock Analysis Compilation
River Oaks Capital on Boston Omaha $BOMN US
Boston Omaha’s deep asset portfolio and significant free cash flow generation offer investors high downside protection with attractive growth potential
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/qQtis6CjFb
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River Oaks Capital on Boston Omaha $BOMN US
Boston Omaha’s deep asset portfolio and significant free cash flow generation offer investors high downside protection with attractive growth potential
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/qQtis6CjFb
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Hidden Value Gems
I have heard people mention that FTSE performed as well as NASDAQ recently, but I could never find that strong "FTSE" or that weak "NASDAQ". Not sure what they really refer to...🤷🏽♂️
The latest comment is from @MerrynSW podcast with the Fidelity PM, Alex Wright. https://t.co/aeGVAKDh1l
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I have heard people mention that FTSE performed as well as NASDAQ recently, but I could never find that strong "FTSE" or that weak "NASDAQ". Not sure what they really refer to...🤷🏽♂️
The latest comment is from @MerrynSW podcast with the Fidelity PM, Alex Wright. https://t.co/aeGVAKDh1l
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Arauca Capital on Shelly Group $SLYG BU
Shelly’s strategic acquisition of LOQED and its entry into the smart lock market provide an exciting new growth vertical at minimal cost, offering significant upside potential
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/rm3ySU78Qv
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Arauca Capital on Shelly Group $SLYG BU
Shelly’s strategic acquisition of LOQED and its entry into the smart lock market provide an exciting new growth vertical at minimal cost, offering significant upside potential
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/rm3ySU78Qv
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Librarian Capital
Tobacco: US states that have e-cig directories & states that have legalised cannabis
6 legalised for medical use (UT, OK, LA, AL, FL, KY)
3 for recreation: CA, CO, VA
1 decriminalised: NE
Across 50 states, 38 legalised for medical (incl. 24 for recreational)
$BATS $BTI $MO https://t.co/BSXm4laGov
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Tobacco: US states that have e-cig directories & states that have legalised cannabis
6 legalised for medical use (UT, OK, LA, AL, FL, KY)
3 for recreation: CA, CO, VA
1 decriminalised: NE
Across 50 states, 38 legalised for medical (incl. 24 for recreational)
$BATS $BTI $MO https://t.co/BSXm4laGov
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Emeth Value Capital on Barratt Dev $BDEV LN
Barratt’ substantial land portfolio and strong cash position provide significant downside protection, with potential for a 35% cash margin on home sales if land operations are halted
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/gHC7vQJVJn
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Emeth Value Capital on Barratt Dev $BDEV LN
Barratt’ substantial land portfolio and strong cash position provide significant downside protection, with potential for a 35% cash margin on home sales if land operations are halted
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link in SAC#56) https://t.co/gHC7vQJVJn
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