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Librarian Capital
Another "Bill Ackman reposted" - a story in 4 acts
Pro tip: It's always a bad sign that a Twitter account is followed by a BBC journalist specialising in factchecks https://t.co/JmhHU76iBq
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Another "Bill Ackman reposted" - a story in 4 acts
Pro tip: It's always a bad sign that a Twitter account is followed by a BBC journalist specialising in factchecks https://t.co/JmhHU76iBq
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Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Mastercard $MA acquires Record Future for $2.65bn
"The world’s largest threat intelligence company"
"Provides real-time visibility into potential threats"
1,900 clients in 75 countries, incl. 50 Fortune 100
Backed by Insight Partners
Expected to close in 2025 Q1 https://t.co/s0qtO8JWr8
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Mastercard $MA acquires Record Future for $2.65bn
"The world’s largest threat intelligence company"
"Provides real-time visibility into potential threats"
1,900 clients in 75 countries, incl. 50 Fortune 100
Backed by Insight Partners
Expected to close in 2025 Q1 https://t.co/s0qtO8JWr8
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Hidden Value Gems
Has anyone looked at Samsonite? Cheap and quality stock at first look:
✅8x PE & 14% FCF yield
✅20% historical ROE (ex 2020)
✅Long-term sales and earnings growth at 6% and 8% respectively.
Two issues I see:
⛔️Fairly high net debt $1.5bn (2x Net Debt/EBITDA)
⛔️No dividends or buybacks recently.
➡️The stock is down almost 30% this year.
➡️The company plans to list in the US, which should arguably improve liquidity, valaution...
$1910.HK #Samsonite
h/t @ValSenOne for flagging this stock
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Has anyone looked at Samsonite? Cheap and quality stock at first look:
✅8x PE & 14% FCF yield
✅20% historical ROE (ex 2020)
✅Long-term sales and earnings growth at 6% and 8% respectively.
Two issues I see:
⛔️Fairly high net debt $1.5bn (2x Net Debt/EBITDA)
⛔️No dividends or buybacks recently.
➡️The stock is down almost 30% this year.
➡️The company plans to list in the US, which should arguably improve liquidity, valaution...
$1910.HK #Samsonite
h/t @ValSenOne for flagging this stock
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Hidden Value Gems
Positioning in the oil markets is quite bearish. Usually, a good contrarian indicator. Could be especially useful if the Dollar continues to weaken...
#energy #oil #Commodities https://t.co/LVvbmQkebQ
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Positioning in the oil markets is quite bearish. Usually, a good contrarian indicator. Could be especially useful if the Dollar continues to weaken...
#energy #oil #Commodities https://t.co/LVvbmQkebQ
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Capital on Precision Wires India $PRWIRE IN
Thesis: Precision Wires is set to drive growth by capitalizing on the electrification trend in India, leveraging its dominant market position and key relationships with OEMs
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/RSMOiJDJLI
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Baron Capital on Precision Wires India $PRWIRE IN
Thesis: Precision Wires is set to drive growth by capitalizing on the electrification trend in India, leveraging its dominant market position and key relationships with OEMs
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/RSMOiJDJLI
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Capital Employed
30 stock pitches we’ve enjoyed reading in the past two weeks… 👇
https://t.co/hJJU8azOvl https://t.co/ZpUpUCjMcp
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30 stock pitches we’ve enjoyed reading in the past two weeks… 👇
https://t.co/hJJU8azOvl https://t.co/ZpUpUCjMcp
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Davis fund on Samsung $005930 KS
Thesis: Samsung is primed to capitalize on the AI revolution, leveraging its leadership in semiconductor memory and mobile technology to strengthen its market dominance
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/BP6VhB7Vnn
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Davis fund on Samsung $005930 KS
Thesis: Samsung is primed to capitalize on the AI revolution, leveraging its leadership in semiconductor memory and mobile technology to strengthen its market dominance
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/BP6VhB7Vnn
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Less than 2 months ago I stated:
“Today at $254💵 $V appears to be ONE OF THE BEST RISK-REWARD opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $V shares rallied +12.5%, despite the market’s recent sell off ✅
As I stated in the post attached below 👇🏽
“As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price”
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $V 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.73x
•10-Year Mean: 28.11x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.20%
•10-Year Mean: 4.08%
As you can see, $V appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $V is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.64B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B
$V has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 31x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 27.5%
•2020: 21.4%
•2021: 24.2%
•2022: 30.7%
•2023: 33.7%
•LTM: 35.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.2%
•2020: 30.7%
•2021: 33.4%
•2022: 40.9%
•2023: 46.5%
•LTM: 48.5%
$V has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $11.78B
•2023: $32.65B
•CAGR: 10.73%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.55B
•2023: $19.70B
•CAGR: 22.68%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.90
•2023: $8.77
•CAGR: 16.52%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.35
•2023: $1.87
•CAGR: 18.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.03B
By reducing its shares outstanding 22.5%, $V increased its EPS by 29% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~3% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $V has to grow earnings at an 11.87% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.87%) required growth rate:
2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $11.09 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $12.57 (13.3% YoY)
$V has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $V ends 2026 with $12.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
28x P/E: $351.96💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
27x P/E: $339.39💵 … ~14.5% CAGR
26x P/E: $326.82💵 … ~12.6% CAGR
25x P/E: $314.25💵 … ~10.8% CAGR
As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price
Today at $254💵 $V appears to be one of the best risk-reward opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: Less than 2 months ago I stated:
“Today at $254💵 $V appears to be ONE OF THE BEST RISK-REWARD opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment”
Since then, $V shares rallied +12.5%, despite the market’s recent sell off ✅
As I stated in the post attached below 👇🏽
“As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price”
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $V 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.73x
•10-Year Mean: 28.11x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.20%
•10-Year Mean: 4.08%
As you can see, $V appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $V is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.64B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B
$V has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 31x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 27.5%
•2020: 21.4%
•2021: 24.2%
•2022: 30.7%
•2023: 33.7%
•LTM: 35.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.2%
•2020: 30.7%
•2021: 33.4%
•2022: 40.9%
•2023: 46.5%
•LTM: 48.5%
$V has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $11.78B
•2023: $32.65B
•CAGR: 10.73%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.55B
•2023: $19.70B
•CAGR: 22.68%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.90
•2023: $8.77
•CAGR: 16.52%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.35
•2023: $1.87
•CAGR: 18.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.03B
By reducing its shares outstanding 22.5%, $V increased its EPS by 29% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~3% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $V has to grow earnings at an 11.87% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.87%) required growth rate:
2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $11.09 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $12.57 (13.3% YoY)
$V has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $V ends 2026 with $12.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
28x P/E: $351.96💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
27x P/E: $339.39💵 … ~14.5% CAGR
26x P/E: $326.82💵 … ~12.6% CAGR
25x P/E: $314.25💵 … ~10.8% CAGR
As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price
Today at $254💵 $V appears to be one of the best risk-reward opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚[...]