⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $ASML 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
•10-Year Mean: 31.11x

As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $5.38B
•Long-Term Debt: $4.94B

$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 34x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 17.5%
•2020: 21.6%
•2021: 43.8%
•2022: 48.0%
•2023: 48.7%
•LTM: 39.7%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 49.0%
•2022: 59.4%
•2023: 70.4%
•LTM: 48.6%

$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.22B
•2023: $30.42B
•CAGR: 15.46%

FREE CASH FLOW*
• $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isn’t necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the company’s value

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $3.17
•2023: $21.65
•CAGR: 21.18%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 424.90M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 393.55M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.3%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~7.9% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 51.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 30.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.5%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a 13.65% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.65%) required growth rate:

2024E: $20.87 (-5.3% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $33.07 (58.5% YoY)
2026E: $38.61 (16.7% YoY)

$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ASML ends 2026 with $38.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

30x P/E: $1158.30💵 … ~21.0% CAGR

29x P/E: $1119.69💵 … ~19.3% CAGR

28x P/E: $1081.08💵 … ~17.6% CAGR

27x P/E: $1042.47💵 … ~15.8% CAGR

26x P/E: $1003.86💵 … ~14.0% CAGR

25x P/E: $965.25💵 … ~12.1% CAGR

As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume greater or equal to 25x earnings (well below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality & growth rate)

However we should be aware that, while $ASML is a wide-moat business, we’ll be relying on fairly aggressive growth estimates in 2025 & these kinds of estimates should always be taken with caution

Today at $753💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility

Also, we have some margin of safety by relying on 25x (rather than 30x)

Given its volatility, however, it’s wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the short-term 💵

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet

⁠Librarian Capital
FeverTree $FEVR 24H1

Revenue flat % ex-FX, -2% in £ (UK -6%, US +10%, Europe -12%; ROW +57% w/ own distribut.)
GP +15% (GM 35.9%; PY 30.7%)
Adj. EBITDA +79% (margin 10.5%; PY 5.8%)
EPS 6.49p (PY 0.94p)

FY outlook cut
Revenue +4-5% (was ~10%)
But "on track" for ~600bps better GM https://t.co/fSdiG63hO2
tweet

⁠Librarian Capital
Ruffer Total Return Fund "broadly flat in August"
Now +1.6% YTD and +3.7% p.a. last 5 years (£)

Flat despite taking profits on "some" protection

"We have been looking in the right direction"
"This was proof of concept"

A broken clock is right 2x a day
But expensive for clients https://t.co/Bt8ksnJVWW
tweet

⁠Librarian Capital
"Gary Stevenson claims to have been the best trader in the world. His old colleagues disagree"

"FTAV spoken to 8 former employees ... All of them disputed his claim ... More than 1 ... alleged (he) had “delusions of grandeur”"

1 "described Gary’s central claim as “horse shit”"

Gary Stevenson claims to have been the best trader in the world. His old colleagues disagree https://t.co/GGMoDiLKHM - FT Alphaville
tweet

⁠Librarian Capital
Ruffer CIO Henry Maxey bought £5.3m of Ruffer Investment Co. $RICA 6 months ago (12-Mar)

RICA disclosed this voluntarily, no doubt hoping to boost confidence, and it received positive press

RICA share price is up just 4.6% since
(Y-axis obviously doesn't start at zero) https://t.co/MSwWh2jjCP

Ruffer CIO Henry Maxey bought £5.0m of Ruffer Investment Co. $RICA shares on 1-Aug

He previously made a £5.3m purchase on 12-Mar

No press coverage this time, despite more eye-catching RNS title ("CIO share purchase" vs. "senior mgmt. purchase"); RICA rose just ~2% since 12-Mar https://t.co/LaGrDGX9NS - Librarian Capital
tweet

⁠Librarian Capital
VC with Chinese characteristics

A leading state-owned VC "filed 41 lawsuits since 2023 ... 35 against companies that had largely failed to go public" despite redemption clauses

"New start-ups face even more onerous terms ... founders must take personal liability for the debt" https://t.co/7pDFD6saSK

How China has ‘throttled’ its private sector - The Big Read https://t.co/yb57da3xR5 - FT Opinion
tweet

⁠Librarian Capital
Revolut: CEO "Nik Storonsky ... sold between 40% and 60% of the stock that was offloaded by employees ... worth between $200m and $300m"

"Coatue and D1 Capital Partners become investors"

"Revolut is chaired by Martin Gilbert"
"Directors include Michael Sherwood"

Exclusive: Nik Storonsky, founder and CEO of British-based banking app Revolut, last month sold a stake in the company worth between $200m and $300m in a secondary share deal which propelled him up the ranks of the world's richest tech entrepreneurs. https://t.co/Ofbi8cEBeI - Mark Kleinman
tweet

⁠Hidden Value Gems
Quote of the day #85

From one of the recent articles by @vitaliyk https://t.co/TppkFxUHRG
tweet