⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Less than 2 months ago I stated:

“Today at $254💵 $V appears to be ONE OF THE BEST RISK-REWARD opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment”

Since then, $V shares rallied +12.5%, despite the market’s recent sell off ✅

As I stated in the post attached below 👇🏽

“As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality

I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”

$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price”

#stocks #investing"

A sober valuation analysis on $V 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.73x
•10-Year Mean: 28.11x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.20%
•10-Year Mean: 4.08%

As you can see, $V appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $V is a super business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.64B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B

$V has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 31x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 27.5%
•2020: 21.4%
•2021: 24.2%
•2022: 30.7%
•2023: 33.7%
•LTM: 35.7%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.2%
•2020: 30.7%
•2021: 33.4%
•2022: 40.9%
•2023: 46.5%
•LTM: 48.5%

$V has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $11.78B
•2023: $32.65B
•CAGR: 10.73%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.55B
•2023: $19.70B
•CAGR: 22.68%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.90
•2023: $8.77
•CAGR: 16.52%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.35
•2023: $1.87
•CAGR: 18.24%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.03B

By reducing its shares outstanding 22.5%, $V increased its EPS by 29% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & ~3% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $V has to grow earnings at an 11.87% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.87%) required growth rate:

2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $11.09 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $12.57 (13.3% YoY)

$V has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $V ends 2026 with $12.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

28x P/E: $351.96💵 … ~16.4% CAGR

27x P/E: $339.39💵 … ~14.5% CAGR

26x P/E: $326.82💵 … ~12.6% CAGR

25x P/E: $314.25💵 … ~10.8% CAGR

As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume >25x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality

I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”

$V is even trading at a valuation better than just a fair price

Today at $254💵 $V appears to be one of the best risk-reward opportunities in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨[...]

𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Librarian Capital
$HAYPP used to sell vape and combustibles too

But it "delisted all vaping & combustible products even though these products were profitable" in 2017 https://t.co/kHCCE4SpGf
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
Quote of the day #82

#investing #scale #ROIC https://t.co/2TTVW9nkY9
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⁠Librarian Capital
$HAYPP on their business in the US:

"We are still very small. We have 2.5% share ... of the overall market ... We need more online penetration of the market" (Gabriel De Prado, CCO, Nov-23 CMD)

Haypp 2023 US sales: ~$50m
Altria $MO Oral Tobacco sales: $2,555m

(* 25% = % of Haypp pouches sold in US)
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⁠Investing visuals
Wonderful visual about $PLTR by @carbonfinancex! Great account to follow If you're a fan of high quality visuals👌

Palantir $PLTR is officially joining the S&P 500 $SPX, replacing American Airlines $AAL in the index.

The announcement came after hours on Friday, sending shares of the big data software company up 8%. 

Palantir has had an impressive year, with its stock up roughly 100% YTD.

To qualify for the S&P 500, a company must meet several criteria such as:
•Being profitable in the most recent quarter
•Having cumulative profits over the last four quarters
•A minimum market cap of $14.5B.

Dell $DELL will also join the S&P 500, replacing Etsy $ETSY, while Erie Indemnity $ERIE will take the spot of Bio-Rad Laboratories $BIO.

These changes will be effective on September 23rd. - carbonfinance
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AkhenOsiris
$GENI $DKNG

Seems DraftKings has signed on with Genius Sports' BetVision.

As per Sports Business Journal article last week, DraftKings was still in negotiations with Genius help.draftkings.com/hc/en-us…

Sports Business Journal article from Sept 2nd:

"Promising as the product may be, it has not been enough to spur what sources say have become contentious renewal negotiations between Genius and the three largest U.S. sportsbooks: FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM. As of last Thursday, with the season opener a week away, only Caesars and BetRivers had finalized deals, though talks continued.

Caesars, which was the first to renew and had exclusive rights to introduce BetVision in its first year, declined a request to discuss the product’s evolution, as did FanDuel and Fanatics, the other two sportsbooks that offered it last year. Genius declined comment on renewal negotiations.

From all indications, the sticking point for the larger books has been the price of the overall data package, not the utility of the updated watch-and-bet product."
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AkhenOsiris
Impact to $GENI:

CFO at Citi Conference: "Why it's important for Genius is because we take, broadly speaking, just a generalization, about 3x as much revenue from an in-play sports bet as we do a pre-play sports bet."
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AkhenOsiris
When in doubt, make up a new definition, we all do it...bravo Gene

Greetings from Cupertino. Here’s what you need to know about todays $AAPL event:

The bottom line: Will FY25 be an iPhone “super cycle”? If the definition of super cycle is exceeding Street's estimates, I believe the answer is yes.

A closer look at today: Since there will be little changes to the iPhone hardware, all of the focus will be on any changes to the Apple Intelligence features and rollout roadmap outlined back at WWDC. I’m most focused on when to expect the more advanced features in Europe and China. Over the weekend, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported two smaller Apple Intelligence features, Image Playground app and the Genmoji, will be delayed by a month or two (now expected in December). While this is a setback, and could soften iPhone sales in December, it will have little impact on FY25.

The bigger picture - Consumers will want these AI features: Despite the unknowns of feature timing and global rollout, I believe consumers will get excited about these AI features and will lead to upside to the Street's FY25 and FY26 iPhone numbers. Factset consensus estimates call for iPhone in FY24 to be down 0.3%, shifting to growth in FY25 at up 5%, and FY26 up 6%. While the Dec-24 iPhone quarter will likely be up only a few percent (below the Street at 5.7% growth), the March quarter benefits from an easy comp and ramping Apple Intelligence features and global availability. In the end, I expect the iPhone will grow in the range of 8-10% this year with similar growth in FY26.

iPhone growth sensitivity: Keep in mind if just 10% of those that typically upgrade in FY26 move forward in FY25, iPhone growth in FY25 will be closer to 15%. I’m not suggesting that will happen, just pointing out that small changes to upgrade behavior has a meaningful impact to iPhone growth rates. This dynamic works in both directions as we have seen in iPhone growth over the past couple of years being down 1% on average.

Other announcements today don’t really matter: Today we should also see new health features for the Apple Watch, and new lower-end AirPods. Both product lines combine to account for about 10% of so the changes will only have a modest at best impact on numbers. - Gene Munster
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Capital on Apple $AAPL US

Thesis: Apple’s growing ecosystem, powered by AI and a massive base of loyal users, positions the company for renewed growth and sustained value creation

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/9bmhn80WfR
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