⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Roughly 1 month ago, I suggested that investors would be wise to be patient & consider $LVMH for investment at €640💵

Since then, $LVMH fell -12%, reaching my price target

Don’t miss out on today’s analysis ‼️👇🏽

#stocks #investing https://t.co/rexmkGmauX

A sober valuation analysis on $LVMH 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.97x
•10-Year Mean: 23.92x

•NTM FCF Yield: 4.87%
•10-Year Mean: 4.13%

As you can see, $LVMH appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~13% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $LVMH is a high-quality business

*Financials In Euros €*

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: €11.09B
•Long-Term Debt: €11.64B

$LVMH has a strong balance sheet, reflected by its AA- S&P Credit Rating & 16x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.6%
•2020: 10.2%
•2021: 18.9%
•2022: 21.2%
•2023: 21.0%
•LTM: 19.1%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.5%
•2020: 12.8%
•2021: 28.9%
•2022: 28.0%
•2023: 26.7%
•LTM: 22.8%

$LVMH has excellent return metrics, highlighting the company’s financial efficiency

REVENUES✅
•2013: €29.02B
•2023: €86.15B
•CAGR: 11.49%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: €2.99B
•2023: €11.59B
•CAGR: 14.52%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: €6.83
•2023: €30.33
•CAGR: 16.07%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 503.22M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 499.83M

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 68.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 25.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 16.3%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~13% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $LVMH has to grow earnings at a 9.99% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than (10.95%) the required growth rate:

2024E: €30.12 (-0.7% YoY)* Dec

2025E: €33.57 (11.4% YoY)
2026E: €36.73 (9.4% YoY)

So, let’s assume $LVMH ends 2026 with €36.73 in EPS & see its CAGR potential (dividends included) assuming different multiples:

23x P/E: €844.79💵 … ~14.1% CAGR

22x P/E: €808.06💵 … ~12.1% CAGR

21x P/E: €771.33💵 … ~10.0% CAGR

20x P/E: €734.60💵 … ~8.0% CAGR

As you can see, we’d have to assume 22x for $LVMH to have attractive return potential & while 22x is certainly reasonable given its quality, we should be aware that $LVMH 10-Year average multiple (24.92x) is elevated a bit due to the valuation spike in 2020-2021

If we “normalize” the multiple & use the 5-year average period from 2014-2019 we have a mean of 20.83x 🔎

While $LVMH deserves to trade at a premium multiple due to its quality, I’m hesitant to rely on 23x because I want to ensure some margin of safety

It’s safer to rely on ~21x earnings & be pleasantly surprised with some multiple expansion (rather than have the risk of multiple compression)

At 21x, we can still reasonably expect double-digit returns with some multiple expansion if growth estimates rise

Today at €636💵 $LVMH appears to be a decent consideration for investment (perhaps with a second tranche of accumulation if it gets to €585💵)

$MC $LVMHF $LVMUY

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
tweet

⁠Quiver Quantitative
David Joyce (R-Ohio), has contributed to the campaign of Matt Gaetz' primary challenger, per The Hill.

Gaetz has amplified some of our reports on STOCK Act violations by members of the Ethics Committee, including Joyce, in the past. https://t.co/ylTwf5IudY
tweet

⁠PitchDeckGuy
WeWork went from a single NYC location to a $47B valuation and then back to zero, all in just under a decade

Here’s their pitch deck: https://t.co/ZXmdnGsGuu
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $PYPL 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 15.11x
•3-Year Mean: 20.45

•NTM FCF Yield: 8.89%
•3-Year Mean: 7.12%

As you can see, $PYPL appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~35% MORE in earnings per share & ~25% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $PYPL is a good business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $13.62B
•Long-Term Debt: $9.73V

$PYPL has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 20.78x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 12.4%
•2020: 11.5%
•2021: 13.6%
•2022: 12.7%
•2023: 14.8%
•LTM: 15.8%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 15.2%
•2020: 22.7%
•2021: 20.0%
•2022: 11.5%
•2023: 20.5%
•LTM: 22.0%

$PYPL has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $15.45B
•2023: $29.77B
•CAGR: 14.01%

FREE CASH FLOW❌*
•2018: $4.66B
•2023: $4.22B
•Decrease: (9.44%)

*2024 FCF Estimate is $5.98B 📈

*Also, FCF in 2017 was $1.86B, so FCF rose ~150% in 2018 start date (“normalizing” the decline above)

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.42
•2023: $5.10
•CAGR: 16.07%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2015 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.08B

By reducing its shares outstanding by 12.2%, $PYPL increased its EPS by 13.9% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 39.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.3%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~35% MORE in EPS & ~25% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $PYPL has to grow earnings at a 7.56% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (7.56%) required growth rate:

2024E: $4.40 (-13.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.82 (9.7% YoY)
2026E: $5.39 (11.8% YoY)

$PYPL has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $PYPL ends 2026 with $5.39 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

18x P/E: $97.02💵 … ~15.7% CAGR

17x P/E: $91.63💵 … ~12.8% CAGR

16x P/E: $86.24💵 … ~10.0% CAGR

As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >16 earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >18x earnings

The 🔑 isn't a mean reversion in $PYPL's multiple, but a modest increase (still below its historical average) - a reasonable and safe assumption

There’s still negative sentiment around $PYPL and this sentiment can be flipped in a few quarters if management continues to make progress towards its goals as we’ve seen in the most recent report

I believe they will — however, investors concerned with the “turnaround risks” associated with $PYPL can still benefit by allocating a smaller % to $PYPL

Today at $69💵 $PYPL appears to be a strong consideration for investment (albeit, with some turnaround & competitive risks)

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet

⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Loomis Sayles on Vipshop $VIPS US

Thesis: Vipshop's strong profitability and unique market position in off-price e-commerce make it a compelling undervalued opportunity with significant growth potential

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/ujmid1YvSJ
tweet

AkhenOsiris
@qcapital2020

Damn Japan wants the Couche-Retard!
tweet