Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
What are you watching this week?
• Monday: $PANW.
• Tuesday: $LOW.
• Wednesday: $ADI, $PDD, $SNOW, $SNPS, $TGT, $ZM.
• Thursday: $INTU, $NTES.
All visualized in our PRO coverage next Saturday. https://t.co/TKYxBn8mMk
tweet
What are you watching this week?
• Monday: $PANW.
• Tuesday: $LOW.
• Wednesday: $ADI, $PDD, $SNOW, $SNPS, $TGT, $ZM.
• Thursday: $INTU, $NTES.
All visualized in our PRO coverage next Saturday. https://t.co/TKYxBn8mMk
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Heartland Advisors on Century Communities $CCS US
Thesis: Century Communities is well-positioned to navigate the housing market challenges, benefiting from strong demand among entry-level buyers and trading at a discount
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/XYjOyfoYjM
tweet
Heartland Advisors on Century Communities $CCS US
Thesis: Century Communities is well-positioned to navigate the housing market challenges, benefiting from strong demand among entry-level buyers and trading at a discount
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/XYjOyfoYjM
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Hidden Value Gems
Enjoyed the interview with @JohnArnoldFndtn who achieved ~100% compound annual
return over 12 years and retired at 38 as a billionaire.
✅ “The market is usually right, but success in investing often comes from the confidence to believe when it’s wrong.”
✅ "Investing requires the balance of confidence to challenge the market and the humility to accept when you’re wrong."
✅ "In investing, the rarest skill is not just finding opportunities but knowing when you’ve made a mistake."
✅ "Success in investing isn’t about always being right; it’s about knowing when you need to rethink your strategy."
✅ “There's this phrase that fear and greed determine markets, and those are two very strong emotions. I've seen traders who either because of fear or greed, they change their pattern, they change their process. And so, for better or worse, I think I'm classified by being able to be detached from my emotions.”
✅ “The amount of infrastructure that's required to run the data centers for AI is immense. The industry is under a real challenge. It's putting tremendous challenge upon the utility industry.”
tweet
Enjoyed the interview with @JohnArnoldFndtn who achieved ~100% compound annual
return over 12 years and retired at 38 as a billionaire.
✅ “The market is usually right, but success in investing often comes from the confidence to believe when it’s wrong.”
✅ "Investing requires the balance of confidence to challenge the market and the humility to accept when you’re wrong."
✅ "In investing, the rarest skill is not just finding opportunities but knowing when you’ve made a mistake."
✅ "Success in investing isn’t about always being right; it’s about knowing when you need to rethink your strategy."
✅ “There's this phrase that fear and greed determine markets, and those are two very strong emotions. I've seen traders who either because of fear or greed, they change their pattern, they change their process. And so, for better or worse, I think I'm classified by being able to be detached from my emotions.”
✅ “The amount of infrastructure that's required to run the data centers for AI is immense. The industry is under a real challenge. It's putting tremendous challenge upon the utility industry.”
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Matrix Asset Advisors on Medtronic $MDT US
Thesis: Medtronic, the global leader in biomedical devices, is poised for a rebound with compelling valuation and strong growth prospects post-COVID
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/a8Eb61HXKF
tweet
Matrix Asset Advisors on Medtronic $MDT US
Thesis: Medtronic, the global leader in biomedical devices, is poised for a rebound with compelling valuation and strong growth prospects post-COVID
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/a8Eb61HXKF
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Invest In Assets 📈
Gains needed to make up for losses in the stock market: https://t.co/vhTn5LQ39N
tweet
Gains needed to make up for losses in the stock market: https://t.co/vhTn5LQ39N
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Royce IP on Azelis Group $AZE BB
Thesis: Azelis Group is a strong consolidator in the specialty chemicals market with solid fundamentals, poised to benefit from industry consolidation
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/HMJdHFp970
tweet
Royce IP on Azelis Group $AZE BB
Thesis: Azelis Group is a strong consolidator in the specialty chemicals market with solid fundamentals, poised to benefit from industry consolidation
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/HMJdHFp970
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Last month, after reporting strong quarterly results, $META traded down to an attractive level of valuation.
Since then, $META shares increased +12.70% 🟢
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, $META appears to have double-digit CAGR potential if we assume >23x earnings, a multiple slightly below what it’s trading for today and a multiple below what may be justified given its mid-teens earnings growth rate
I also believe that Mark Zuckerberg will continue to execute exceptionally well
Additionally, the increased investment in future growth and necessary AI development has the potential to drive better growth prospects, which could serve as a bullish catalyst for the next several years
Today at $476💵 $META appears to be a good consideration for investment
$META appears to be an excellent deal closer to $450💵 where it has ~11% CAGR potential assuming 2026E and a 22x multiple (an added layer of margin of safety)”
___
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $META 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.17x
•10-Year Mean: 26.61x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.77%
•10-Year Mean: 3.30%
As you can see, $META appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~14% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $META is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $58.12B
•Long-Term Debt: $18.39B
$META has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 147x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 26.0%
•2020: 23.5%
•2021: 33.7%
•2022: 22.0%
•2023: 26.3%
•LTM: 30.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 20.0%
•2020: 25.4%
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 18.5%
•2023: 28.0%
•LTM: 33.4%
$META has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $55.84B
•2023: $134.90B
•CAGR: 19.29%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $15.36B
•2023: $43.85B
•CAGR: 23.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $7.57
•2023: $14.87
•CAGR: 14.45%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 2.92B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.64B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~9.5%, $META increased its EPS by ~10.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 39.5%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 32.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~14% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $META has to grow earnings at an 11.60% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (11.60%) required growth rate:
2024E: $20.14 (35.4% YoY)
2025E: $23.05 (14.5% YoY)
2026E: $26.32 (14.2% YoY)
$META has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $META ends 2026 with $26.32 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $631.68💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $605.36💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
22x P/E: $579.04💵 … ~8.5% CAGR
As you can see, $META appears to have double-digit CAGR potential if we assume >23x earnings, a multiple slightly below what it’s trading for today and a multiple below what may be justified given its mid-teens earnings growth rate
I also believe that Mark Zuckerberg will continue to execute exceptionally well
Additionally, the increased investment in future growth and necessary AI development has the potential to drive better growth prospects, which could serve as a bullish catalyst for the next several years
Today at $476💵 $META appears to be a good consideration for investment
$META appears to be an excellent deal closer to $450💵 where it has ~11% CAGR po[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: Last month, after reporting strong quarterly results, $META traded down to an attractive level of valuation.
Since then, $META shares increased +12.70% 🟢
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, $META appears to have double-digit CAGR potential if we assume >23x earnings, a multiple slightly below what it’s trading for today and a multiple below what may be justified given its mid-teens earnings growth rate
I also believe that Mark Zuckerberg will continue to execute exceptionally well
Additionally, the increased investment in future growth and necessary AI development has the potential to drive better growth prospects, which could serve as a bullish catalyst for the next several years
Today at $476💵 $META appears to be a good consideration for investment
$META appears to be an excellent deal closer to $450💵 where it has ~11% CAGR potential assuming 2026E and a 22x multiple (an added layer of margin of safety)”
___
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $META 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.17x
•10-Year Mean: 26.61x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.77%
•10-Year Mean: 3.30%
As you can see, $META appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~14% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $META is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $58.12B
•Long-Term Debt: $18.39B
$META has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 147x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 26.0%
•2020: 23.5%
•2021: 33.7%
•2022: 22.0%
•2023: 26.3%
•LTM: 30.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 20.0%
•2020: 25.4%
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 18.5%
•2023: 28.0%
•LTM: 33.4%
$META has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $55.84B
•2023: $134.90B
•CAGR: 19.29%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $15.36B
•2023: $43.85B
•CAGR: 23.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $7.57
•2023: $14.87
•CAGR: 14.45%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 2.92B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.64B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~9.5%, $META increased its EPS by ~10.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 39.5%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 32.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~14% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $META has to grow earnings at an 11.60% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (11.60%) required growth rate:
2024E: $20.14 (35.4% YoY)
2025E: $23.05 (14.5% YoY)
2026E: $26.32 (14.2% YoY)
$META has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $META ends 2026 with $26.32 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $631.68💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $605.36💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
22x P/E: $579.04💵 … ~8.5% CAGR
As you can see, $META appears to have double-digit CAGR potential if we assume >23x earnings, a multiple slightly below what it’s trading for today and a multiple below what may be justified given its mid-teens earnings growth rate
I also believe that Mark Zuckerberg will continue to execute exceptionally well
Additionally, the increased investment in future growth and necessary AI development has the potential to drive better growth prospects, which could serve as a bullish catalyst for the next several years
Today at $476💵 $META appears to be a good consideration for investment
$META appears to be an excellent deal closer to $450💵 where it has ~11% CAGR po[...]