Offshore
Photo
Librarian Capital
"There hasn't been a VIX plunge like this since the GFC ... 23 points over the past 8 trading sessions"
This may explain why Ruffer Investment Co $RICA NAV has now lost nearly all of its early Aug gains https://t.co/byW0dbb5zp
tweet
"There hasn't been a VIX plunge like this since the GFC ... 23 points over the past 8 trading sessions"
This may explain why Ruffer Investment Co $RICA NAV has now lost nearly all of its early Aug gains https://t.co/byW0dbb5zp
There hasn't been a VIX plunge like this since the global financial crisis
The VIX, has tumbled 23 points over the past eight trading sessions, the largest such decline since **November 2008** https://t.co/8uC5cY1i08 tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Heartland Advisors on Seacoast Banking Corp. of Florida $SBCF US
Thesis: Seacoast Banking offers an attractive entry point with potential upside from cost management and regional growth, plus possible M&A activity
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/fzqvy6u8DU
tweet
Heartland Advisors on Seacoast Banking Corp. of Florida $SBCF US
Thesis: Seacoast Banking offers an attractive entry point with potential upside from cost management and regional growth, plus possible M&A activity
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/fzqvy6u8DU
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $V 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 24.93x
•10-Year Mean: 28.13x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.25%
•10-Year Mean: 4.08%
As you can see, $V appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~13% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $V is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.64B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B
$V has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 31x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 27.5%
•2020: 21.4%
•2021: 24.2%
•2022: 30.7%
•2023: 33.7%
•LTM: 35.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.2%
•2020: 30.7%
•2021: 33.4%
•2022: 40.9%
•2023: 46.5%
•LTM: 48.5%
$V has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $11.78B
•2023: $32.65B
•CAGR: 10.73%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.55B
•2023: $19.70B
•CAGR: 22.68%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.90
•2023: $8.77
•CAGR: 16.52%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.35
•2023: $1.87
•CAGR: 18.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.04B
By reducing its shares outstanding 22.1%, $V increased its EPS by 28.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~13% MORE in EPS & ~4% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $V has to grow earnings at a 12.47% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be just near the (12.47%) required growth rate:
2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $11.06 (11.5% YoY)
2026E: $12.53 (13.2% YoY)
$V has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $V ends 2026 with $12.53 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
28x P/E: $350.84💵 … ~14.9% CAGR
27x P/E: $338.31💵 … ~12.9% CAGR
26x P/E: $325.78💵 … ~10.9% CAGR
25x P/E: $313.25💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >26x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation slightly better than just a fair price
Today at $266💵 $V appears to be a great risk-reward opportunity in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet
A sober valuation analysis on $V 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 24.93x
•10-Year Mean: 28.13x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.25%
•10-Year Mean: 4.08%
As you can see, $V appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~13% MORE in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $V is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $16.64B
•Long-Term Debt: $20.60B
$V has a great balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating, & 31x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 27.5%
•2020: 21.4%
•2021: 24.2%
•2022: 30.7%
•2023: 33.7%
•LTM: 35.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 35.2%
•2020: 30.7%
•2021: 33.4%
•2022: 40.9%
•2023: 46.5%
•LTM: 48.5%
$V has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $11.78B
•2023: $32.65B
•CAGR: 10.73%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $2.55B
•2023: $19.70B
•CAGR: 22.68%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.90
•2023: $8.77
•CAGR: 16.52%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.35
•2023: $1.87
•CAGR: 18.24%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 2.62B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.04B
By reducing its shares outstanding 22.1%, $V increased its EPS by 28.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 97.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 66.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 53.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~13% MORE in EPS & ~4% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $V has to grow earnings at a 12.47% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be just near the (12.47%) required growth rate:
2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $11.06 (11.5% YoY)
2026E: $12.53 (13.2% YoY)
$V has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $V ends 2026 with $12.53 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
28x P/E: $350.84💵 … ~14.9% CAGR
27x P/E: $338.31💵 … ~12.9% CAGR
26x P/E: $325.78💵 … ~10.9% CAGR
25x P/E: $313.25💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
As you can see, $V appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >26x earnings, a multiple well-below its 10-year mean & more importantly — a multiple justified by its growth rate AND quality
I consider $V one of the best businesses in the world & as Warren Buffett says:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price”
$V is even trading at a valuation slightly better than just a fair price
Today at $266💵 $V appears to be a great risk-reward opportunity in today’s market & a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
Hedge funds' top picks in Q2:
☁️ AI infrastructure: $AMZN $GOOG
⚙️ Semis: $AVGO $QCOM $TSM
🌏 International: $CPNG $MELI $SE
⚡️ Energy: $GEV $CEG
Dive in for some surprising finds!👇
https://t.co/wXBwC943dk
tweet
Hedge funds' top picks in Q2:
☁️ AI infrastructure: $AMZN $GOOG
⚙️ Semis: $AVGO $QCOM $TSM
🌏 International: $CPNG $MELI $SE
⚡️ Energy: $GEV $CEG
Dive in for some surprising finds!👇
https://t.co/wXBwC943dk
tweet
Offshore
Photo
PitchDeckGuy
Peloton's stock is down 98% since Covid highs
Here’s their pitch deck: https://t.co/KAs0jr8xJR
tweet
Peloton's stock is down 98% since Covid highs
Here’s their pitch deck: https://t.co/KAs0jr8xJR
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
Parker-Hannifin executives have made over $350k in political donations over the last 6 years.
98% of that money has gone towards candidates that support more defense spending (source: @goodsuniteus)
tweet
Parker-Hannifin executives have made over $350k in political donations over the last 6 years.
98% of that money has gone towards candidates that support more defense spending (source: @goodsuniteus)
Wild that this is allowed.
We recently posted this report on a purchase of Parker-Hannifin stock, $PH, by Senator Markwayne Mullin.
$PH produces parts for the military.
Mullin sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee.
The stock has now risen 13% this week. https://t.co/djcVBnQWG2 tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
🚨 BREAKING: Representative Josh Gottheimer just disclosed a purchase of Northrop Grumman stock, $NOC.
Northrop just raised profit forecasts, amid increased global defense spending.
Gottheimer sits on the House Intelligence Committee.
We'll keep you updated. https://t.co/VX4FvO1yqY
tweet
🚨 BREAKING: Representative Josh Gottheimer just disclosed a purchase of Northrop Grumman stock, $NOC.
Northrop just raised profit forecasts, amid increased global defense spending.
Gottheimer sits on the House Intelligence Committee.
We'll keep you updated. https://t.co/VX4FvO1yqY
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Stock Analysis Compilation #53 is in your inbox 🔥 (link below)
43 free analyses from the best hedge funds & newsletters :
$ABNB $EVO $MO $AMZN $ADSK $RILY $BKNG $CPS $CRON $FC $ILMN $LB $EDU $NU $PLTR $PM $PPSI $SE $SKYH $SPOT $UBER $ULTA $ZM and many more https://t.co/Rlbn77ytfq
tweet
Stock Analysis Compilation #53 is in your inbox 🔥 (link below)
43 free analyses from the best hedge funds & newsletters :
$ABNB $EVO $MO $AMZN $ADSK $RILY $BKNG $CPS $CRON $FC $ILMN $LB $EDU $NU $PLTR $PM $PPSI $SE $SKYH $SPOT $UBER $ULTA $ZM and many more https://t.co/Rlbn77ytfq
tweet